Thread by @mrsorokaa

Short thread 🧵 on Russia’s ongoing escalation & what comes next. 👇🏻

We now know that Putin, Macron & Scholz are forcing Zelensky to comply with the Russian spin of Minsk - direct talks with Kremlin-led proxies & vast autonomy for Russian-occupied regions.kyivindependent.com/national/sourc…

For Macron, becoming chief mediator is key for his standing on the global stage, while Scholz wants the whole situation to return to the October status quo with gas & trade.

The problem: Now Putin knows what he wants & knows how to get it.

Russia wants to force Ukraine into negotiations with its proxies, turning Russia’s war against Ukraine into a “civil war.”

France & Germany is ok with that. kyivindependent.com/national/why-r…

For that, Putin needs to escalate in Donbas & force Zelensky into these negotiations. That’s why Putin is shelling kindergartens, schools & houses - he needs Zelensky, who wants peace, to choose political death over real life deaths in eastern Ukraine.kyivindependent.com/national/over-…

However, this won’t work.

It’s not up to Zelensky to decide on this. If he says yes, a new revolution will start the minute he agrees to Russian terms. Ukrainians will never agree to the Russian version of Minsk.

Zelensky understands that, Macron, Scholz & Putin - don’t.

So now, Russia will continue to escalate, France & Germany will ask Ukraine to accept Kremlin’s spin of Minsk, while Zelensky won’t have a choice but to prolong the negotiations as long as possible, without agreeing to anything, that can cause a new EuroMaidan revolution. END