Thread by @mrsorokaa

Unpopular THREAD. Peaceful protests are for democracies. In authoritarian countries like #Russia & #Belarus peaceful protests don’t work.

You need a specific location and you need to be ready to use force.

The main accomplishment of regimes in #Russia & #Belarus is that they were successful in demonizing Maidan. Even those who hate #Putin & #Lukashenko are scared of being associated with Maidan and rush to reassure their abusers that they will protest peacefully.

Yet, a peaceful protest is good in a country where public opinion & perception matters. In democracies, even a small protest can sway public opinion for or against a politician during the next election. In authoritarian states, public opinion is useless - there’s no elections.

In authoritarian states, peaceful protests will never lead to change, because in authoritarian states giving up something via peaceful protest is showing weakness.

If a peaceful protest works once, it will happen again. The main goal of an autocracy is to discourage people from taking the streets. That’s why excessive force is used.

Protesting for a few hours won’t make a difference, taking the streets by force maybe will.

By willingly opting out of fighting back, the fight is lost. This doesn’t mean that using force should be the first option, but it shouldn’t be ruled out after the regime attacks.

#Ukraine’s revolution was successful because of two key things: there was a place occupied by protesters 24/7 (Maidan & Khreshchatyk) & the revolutionaries were willing to defend themselves when attacked.

In #Belarus, as soon as tortures went unpunished, the fight was lost. If the main goal of a protest is to change a regime, force can’t be ruled out. The protesters in #Minsk gathered near Okrestino detention centre to hear how their loved ones were beaten inside by riot police.

In #Belarus, as soon as tortures went unpunished, the fight was lost. If the main goal of a protest is to change a regime, force can’t be ruled out. Protesters in #Minsk gathered near Okrestino detention centre to hear how their loved ones were tortured inside by the riot police.

The only option was to take hold of the detention centre and free those being tortured. Everything else is a forfeit.

(I know it’s easier said than done).

Authoritarian regimes won’t back down, won’t hold negotiations and a palace revolution won’t happen.

For #Putin & #Lukashenko leaving office is a prison sentence. For their associates - same thing. They are cornered & won’t let go.

In #Belarus, 10% of Minsk took the streets, the regime lost foreign support & the country turned into a rogue state - #Lukashenko didn’t care. For him it’s not about the economy or popularity, for him it’s about survival, a peaceful protest won’t do the trick.

#Belarus & #Russia are absolutely different.

#Navalny’s arrest couldn’t draw a high turnout. Fraudulent elections in #Belarus did, yet lost momentum, turning the standoff into a long run.

Yet, the two protests showed one common feature, a lack of a plan and the inability to fight back.

The next big protest in #Russia will most likely happen after parliament elections & will be triggered by the regime banning real opposition.

Hopefully both #Russia & #Belarus will prove me wrong. END