When analysts estimate the number of ๐ท๐บ troops required to occupy an area of ๐บ๐ฆ they often use a rule of thumb that expeditionary operations require a minimum troop density of 10 to 15 troops per 1,000 civilians depending on how hostile the local population is. However.. 1/
This assumes there are 1,000 civilians at the start of 'policing' an occupied area. If that figure can be reduced by 25%, 50%, 75% through displacement (shelling and bombing cities, towns and villages to terrorise people into fleeing, as in Syria) a wider area can be occupied. 2/
Approximately one-third of an expeditionary force is needed for 'policing' duties, that is, for combat in a counterinsurgency environment. The remainder are available for more traditional policing and other occupation duties. Combat may continue on the periphery. 3/
That is once the defenders' armed forces are reduced and largely incapacitated. Therefore, if 100,000 ๐ท๐บ combat troops* invade an area in ๐บ๐ฆ, once 'secured', some 33,000 of them will be assigned to combat duties ('mopping up' operations). The remainder to occupation duties. 4/
* It requires between 2 and 3 noncombat troops to support, sustain and administrate 1 combat soldier during an expeditionary operation. This the operational and functional (tactical) "tooth-to-tail" ratio. That is, no more than 25-33% of a total force are combat troops. 5/
Current estimates of ๐ท๐บ troops (ground, airborne, marines, special forces, logistics, army aviation, militia etc) for ๐บ๐ฆ ops are 150,000 to 200,000. Add third wave (yet to deploy), rear (reservists), airborne and National Guard, and the figure for total force is some 300,000. 6/
Therefore, an expeditionary force of some 100,000 combat troops is credible. They will have large-scale support for force sustainment. Once the punch-through, seize-hold and other assault and defeat phases are completed, occupation combat 'policing' operations begin. 7/
The spatial extent of such an occupied area is a variable: it depends on the effectiveness of both reducing hostilities by killing and defeating defenders who resist AND displacement of potentially hostile people (or who could harbour such) out of the occupied area. 8/
Therefore, while a state-wide total occupation is unlikely, it is entirely possible for an expeditionary force of 100,000 or more ๐ท๐บ troops to occupy a large area or areas of ๐บ๐ฆ. They have studdies the lessons of the Syria campaign. It should not be underestimated. End/
โข โข โข
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
ใ
