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Feb 20 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
As all eyes are on Donbas, Russian troops continue preparing for a possible offensive against Ukraine along the border. We believe at the moment they are ready to execute various offensive scenarios.

Thread:
Social media and satellite imagery suggest smaller military camps and forward helicopter bases have been popping up along the border with Ukraine, many within 30 kilometers of it.





In Belarus, military convoys and trains are spotted dangerously close to the Ukrainian border (some within 5 km).
twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/st…

twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/st…

A bridge has been thrown over river Pripyat (again) in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
Fixed-wing aircraft are also being put closer to the border, like these Su-34 fighter bombers just across the Azov sea from Ukraine.
Russian airborne vehicles have been seen with parachutes fixed - like these elements of 106th Guards Airborne Division filmed in Tula and then on a train near Moscow going west (h/t @danvan71 for geolocation)


We've been unable to independently confirm that any units indead withdrew to their home bases as announced by @mod_russia, and in any case their number would not exceed 3—4 battalion tactical groups; compare with the most recent count by Western officials
This is happening on the backdrop of an ongoing Grom nuclear exercise, which FPRI Senior Research Fellow @RALee85 believes could serve as a deterrent for NATO in case of a Russian operation against Ukraine.
The Donbas crisis, which local accounts suggest is artifically inflated by the (pro-)Russian side, could be used as a pretext to set any potential aggressive plans into motion - from overtly occupying Donbas to a large-scale offensive.

We will monitor the situation closely.

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More from @CITeam_en

CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 21
Today, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB, which handles Russia's border protection) announced that an unknown shell from the Ukrainian territory destroyed a border post 150 m from the border.

There is a problem with this allegation, though.
Per @ru_rbc's FSB source, the shell exploded near Scherbakovo, Rostov region. Independent geolocation confirms this.



The closest Ukrainian positions are >37 km away from the site. Image
@ru_rbc The only Ukrainian artillery systems that could conceivably fire at such a distance are heavy Smerch MLRS (or its Ukrainian modification "Vilha") and Pion self-propelled howitzers.

They would have caused much heavier destruction than seen in the video.
Read 5 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 21
In the past couple of days, there has been more concerning evidence that a Russian operation against Ukraine might be imminent.

We used to see tracked vehicles moving on trains and low-loaders, now drive under their own power, some very close to Ukraine.
In some cases, tanks and other assault vehicles drive with TOS heavy flamethrowers, despite the latter being from a different military branch (CBRN).

This looks like battalion tactical groups forming and moving to "attack positions" for possible invasion.
There is evidence that some Russian soldiers, both professionals and conscripts, live in appalling conditions near the border. These conditions can't last, they will have to either attack or withdraw to earlier, larger camps (we have seen no withdrawal).

Read 6 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 13
As the US warns of an impending Russian offensive into Ukraine, elements of yet another Russian army are moving dangerously close to the border.

This time, it's the 1st Guards Tank Army — and it's moving in more reinforcements from its home bases, too.
This is one of the many videos filmed in Maslovka near Voronezh. It shows distinctive T-80U tanks of the 4th Guards Tank Division (part of the 1st GTA).

You can see an empty low-loader leaving the area, suggesting vehicles are being brought in.

We first saw 1st Guards Tank Army vehicles near Voronezh late last year.
citeam.org/russian-troops…

They replaced elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army from Siberia, which came to Western Russia in April last year and are also now moving to the border.
Read 7 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 6
Russian military watchers have recently noted that a massive camp in Yelnya, Smolensk region, has nearly emptied.

We believe these vehicles have moved to Bryansk region to the south, to areas just dozens of kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Here is why (thread):
These vehicles belong to the 41st Army of the Central Military District (CMD), transferred to Voronezh in Western Russia from Siberia back in April 2021 and then shifted to Yelnya later that year, as we've extensively covered here:

citeam.org/ru-military-ca…
citeam.org/russian-troops…
CMD vehicles have "87" and "76" codes on theire number plates.

Those codes can be seen in a @FranceTVEurope clip filmed in Klintsy and Klimovo in Bryansk region, as well as in a TikTok video of a Russian military convoy heading south through Smolensk region.
Read 8 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 3
In a new development to our yesterday's warnings on Russia's national guard and possibly riot police redeployment, we and other researchers have observed one of those units stationed close to Ukraine, as well as Chechen Rosgvardia convoys moving northwest
In a social media group for the town of Rossosh (Voronezh region, 40 km from Ukraine), a video was posted showing a large Rosgvardia convoy, alleging that the personnel was stationed at a local vocational school. We geolocated a video of soldiers to the area of said school. ImageImage
Even more worryingly, a TikTok video and a photo from our source shows convoys of two different Chechen Rosgvardia units.

They are de facto part of brutal warlord Ramzan Kadyrov's personal army, and, should they go into Ukraine, would be even less accountable in their conduct. Image
Read 4 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Feb 2
In a worrying development, we and other researchers have observed vehicles characteristic of Russia's National Guard Troops and possibly riot police (both part of the same umbrella organization "Rosgvardia") moving on roads and trains across European Russia.
This video, likely filmed in Konosha, south of Arkhangelsk, shows a train with BTR-80 APCs, Ural-VV and Zvezda-V armored trucks and a Rosgvardia Traffic Police vehicle.

Railcar tracking data suggests the train is going south from Arkhangelsk.
In another video, filmed in Tula, you can see another Zvezda-V armored truck and several gray trucks with red stripes and grated windows, intended to transport personnel and detainees, which you may remember from videos of protests in Russia.
Read 11 tweets

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