Suppose you run a pension scheme, and conducted a valuation in the middle of a pandemic which showed the need for savage cuts. How do you hide the fact that since then the scheme has strengthened dramatically? Here's how. #USSmess #USSstrike 1/ (Graph courtesy of @USSpensions) 
1. Stop publishing data
@USSpensions were publishing monthly data, but stopped with their Aug 21 figures. Why? They say they were working on a new system.
We forced them to publish updates this week they planned on keeping to themselves until June. 2/ uss.co.uk/about-us/valua…
@USSpensions were publishing monthly data, but stopped with their Aug 21 figures. Why? They say they were working on a new system.
We forced them to publish updates this week they planned on keeping to themselves until June. 2/ uss.co.uk/about-us/valua…
2. Explain away improvements with broad-brush arguments
"Assets have increased, but so have liabilities".
"Deficits are down, but future service costs are up".
"Higher asset prices mean lower expected returns".
Enough! Just show us the numbers! 3/ (Below @Barker4Kate in THE)
"Assets have increased, but so have liabilities".
"Deficits are down, but future service costs are up".
"Higher asset prices mean lower expected returns".
Enough! Just show us the numbers! 3/ (Below @Barker4Kate in THE)
3. Get employers to back you up
Once @UniversitiesUK had set their sights on cuts they were happy to reinforce #USS's message. Their actuaries, @Aon_UK, skillfully stayed within their professional code to draft a document of support which didn't contradict their previous ones. 4/
Once @UniversitiesUK had set their sights on cuts they were happy to reinforce #USS's message. Their actuaries, @Aon_UK, skillfully stayed within their professional code to draft a document of support which didn't contradict their previous ones. 4/
4. Tweak assumptions to obscure the improvements
Did you previously allow for out-performance assumptions in your calculations of future service costs? Ditch them in your monitoring data to push rates up! (But do include a footnote.) 5/
Did you previously allow for out-performance assumptions in your calculations of future service costs? Ditch them in your monitoring data to push rates up! (But do include a footnote.) 5/
5. Use subtle tricks to reframe your position
If contribution rates have reduced so much you can't tweak it away, reframe earlier numbers so that people don't spot it. Here, the sky-high 57% rate in the 2020 valuation has magically shrunk to 52.6%. See what they did there? 6/
If contribution rates have reduced so much you can't tweak it away, reframe earlier numbers so that people don't spot it. Here, the sky-high 57% rate in the 2020 valuation has magically shrunk to 52.6%. See what they did there? 6/
6. Provide so much data that people struggle to find the key results
Doesn't work on me, of course. Here are the statistics and graphs you need! And bear in mind that all of these are based on projections which assume negative real growth. 7/
Doesn't work on me, of course. Here are the statistics and graphs you need! And bear in mind that all of these are based on projections which assume negative real growth. 7/
So to wrap up, all the indicators and statistics show a funding position dramatically improved since the valuation date. How long will @USSpensions and @USSemployers continue to deny it? 8/8
PS Lol at @USSpensions' conclusions. Reminds me of some of the less impressive first-year projects I finished marking shortly before going on strike! Agree, @AlexGFletcher?
That last screen-shot was from here: uss.co.uk/news-and-views…
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