❓ Have @USSpensions correctly followed the scheme rules in dealing with the 2020 valuation?

I'm not convinced they have, and see what they've done as having significantly biased the JNC process against @UCU and in favour of @UniversitiesUK.

Read on... 1/
I'm focussing on the 'Rule 76' process, which sets out how the JNC (made up of UCU & UUK reps, plus an independent chair) deals with the outcome of a valuation in which costs have increased. The process starts with the #USS laying out the increase. Or it should. 2/
Let's look at the 'Cost Sharing' rule, 64.10, referenced as part of the Rule 76 process. It sets out the rights of the JNC to determine a change in benefits or contribution rate splits between members and employers, with a 'cost-sharing' backstop for if the JNC does not agree. 3/
Notice that 64.10 refers to 'an increase' in the contribution rate (singular), and gives the JNC the power to decide how to deal with the cost of 'that increase' (again, singular), before specifying how 'that cost' (singular) will be cost-shared in the absence of a decision. 4/
And here's the point: @USSPensions did not provide the JNC with a single cost increase ('that increase') over which to make a decision. Instead, they determined that multiple rates could apply, conditional on the level of covenant support that employers agreed to provide. 5/
And this is no mere technical matter, but one that directly impacted on the JNC's decision-making! As explained previously, @UCU's proposal to deal with the valuation outcome was made unviable by @UniversitiesUK, who withdrew their covenant support, forcing up the price. 6/
I don't believe @USSPensions should ever have implemented a Rule 76 process with multiple rates (which looks to me like a breach of the scheme rules), and certainly not one in which a loophole could be exploited by one party, in this case @UniversitiesUK. 7/
And @USSPensions intend to file the valuation by the end of September, *before* members are consulted over the benefit changes pushed through by UUK. One wonders what recourse is available to scheme members who have once again been badly let down. Bring on the court cases. 8/8
PS The Scheme Rules are available at the link below. Please do have a look! uss.co.uk/about-us/schem…
PPS Interestingly, and almost certainly relevantly, the 'central case' USS refer to below was not the basis on which the JNC decision was made. We never got issued a new Rule 76 report for any other rate, yet UUK's proposals (voted through) were costed against a lower rate.
In other words, something's gone wrong here!

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More from @Sam_Marsh101

3 Sep
Let's talk about the non-existent 2021 valuation, that could have been invoked by @USSpensions as a solution to the crisis that the scheme and pre-92 HE sector is heading towards. (This is an overdue thread.) 1/
It is widely appreciated by the scheme's members that the 2020 valuation date of 31 March 2020 is right in the middle of a COVID-related dip in the markets (first-wave, locked-down, market chaos), and is one important factor in the huge £14-15bn deficit. 2/
At the valuation date, the scheme's assets had plummeted from around £73bn at the end of December 2019 to £66.5bn. By 31 March 2021 the assets had recovered to £80.6bn, and market conditions were widley seen as more 'normal'. (Most recent figure? £88bn) 3/
Read 18 tweets
1 Sep
Want a whistle-stop summary of how we ended up hurtling towards industrial action over #USS? Here's a brief summary. 1/
1. The valuation date

@USSpensions ploughed ahead with a valuation using market data from the peak of market turmoil in the first wave of COVID (31 March 2020), wiping billions off the value of the scheme's assets.
2. Extreme prudence and misguided risk-management

Not content with a COVID-affected valuation date, #USS reworked their discredited Test 1 and ramped up prudence much further than in previous valuations. medium.com/ussbriefs/how-…
Read 14 tweets
11 Sep 20
"Tired of your old Test 1? Always found the linakage too rigidly mechanical? Then welcome to the new, improved Metric A!" Or so the marketing spiel seems to go. But look below the surface and you'll find all the same logical flaws and a near identical ramping up of costs. 1/
I will try and keep this as accessible as possible, because #USS can't be allowed to bluff their way through this stuff. First, a recap. What was wrong with Test 1? 2/
There were a number of criticisms of Test 1, but the main one was that it unnecessarily drove up deficits and contribution rates based on a very flimsy premise (a "large and demonstrable mistake" in @MikeOtsuka's words). 2/ medium.com/@mikeotsuka/us…
Read 12 tweets
9 Apr 20
Okay, time for that #USS update! This thread is going to take in as much of what's going on as possible. And that is *a lot*. I will try to be as concise as I can, but this could be a long one. Happy Easter break. 1/
Firstly, the #USS board has confirmed it is proceeding with the 2020 valuation using market data as at 31 March. It is hard to see how a meaningful assessment of the scheme's long-term health can be made as that date, but that's what we're going to have to try and do. 2/
There are some arguments in favour of proceeding: @TPRgovuk will issue guidance for schemes with a March 2020 valuation date which may allow more flexibility than normal, and "post-valuation experience" over the next 15 months can (and we're told will) be taken into account. 3/
Read 24 tweets
10 Mar 20
I wrote a quick reaction to the 2020 methodology "discussion document" that #USS released yesterday, but I didn't go into detail on the claims I made. Allow me to do some of that in a thread now. 1/

medium.com/ussbriefs/the-…
There are three main problems I identified in #USS's document:

1. The dual-discount rate they illustrate is a very close match for their old methodology;
2. Test 1 has been replaced by Test 1 v2.0;
3. We are still hitting a brick wall when it comes to evidence.

2/
Let's start with the easy one: the dual discount rate that #USS is considering is (at best) equivalent to the 2018 valuation in terms of the calculation of liabilities. This is evident in Table 7.2 of the document (compare the deficits and TP discount rates in rows 1 and 2). 3/
Read 28 tweets
19 Dec 19
The release of the Joint Expert Panel's second report and the clear resolve shown by @UCU members mean we are now in a strong position to make major changes to how #USS is managed. A future free from the intense acrimony of recent years is possible. We need to make it happen. 1/
In September, I wrote that it was essential we take a stand over #USS in order to shift the balance of power in the discussions. The resounding mandate and first wave of strike action have totally changed the dynamics of recent meetings. 2/ medium.com/ussbriefs/why-…
Our employers' representatives at @UniversitiesUK had, since May, tried to convince members and employers that #USS's 'Option 3' was the best possible outcome within the law, and in line with the recommendations from the JEP's first report. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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