My new essay @guardian
"Why one-shot after a Covid-19 infection should suffice to be considered fully-vaxxed" theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Summarizes extensive new evidence that confirmed Prior Covid ("Natural Immunity" or NI) + 1-shot is as protective as 3-shots /1
These 6 new reports (5 in the last week) all demonstrate that NI + 1-shot provides a consistent high level of added protection from reinfection, across multiple variants, which is not ameliorated by additional shots /2
I've reviewed considerable other new data here, such as the J&J vaccine randomized, placebo-controlled trial report last wk @NEJM which showed NI had superior protection vs moderate-to-severe Covid than 1-shot of the vaccine (90% vs 56%, respectively) erictopol.substack.com/p/ground-truth… /3
Yes, there are definite limitations of NI as emphasized in both the @guardian and @substack essays, such as survivorship bias, its unpredictability, and lack of protection from #LongCovid
It would be *reckless* to recommend NI; the data are referring to people who had it /4
The totality of evidence now supports:
"Fully vaccinated" = 3-shots
or
Natural Immunity + 1-shot
/5
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We've learned a lot about Prior Covid ("Natural Immunity") over the past year, but the US/CDC continues to negate the abundant evidence for it providing any protection erictopol.substack.com/p/ground-truth… w/links
And there's substantial new data, I'll review🧵here /1
Last week, the large J&J 1- shot, placebo-controlled trial w/ >2,000 participants who had Prior Covid published @NEJM
Vaccine effectiveness vs moderate/severe disease
Prior Covid 90%
J&J Vaccine 56%
Yet 1-shot J&J vaccine = "fully vaccinated" @CDCgov
Nothing for Prior Covid /2
Neutralizing antibodies after Prior Covid are present out to 16 months in 214 people (graph)
And another study showing persistence of memory B cells at 15 months /3
Today >3,400 Covid deaths reported in the United States, a 7-day average exceeding 2,600 lost lives.
This likely represents the current wave peak; 80% of the US pandemic peak when there were no vaccines. Compared to 20% in countries with high % vaccination and booster rates
OTOH at least we're seeing a rapid descent of hospitalizations to the 100,000 level
🆕 Omicron [O] and Delta [D] outcomes for hospitalizations, deaths and by vaccines in > 1 million O and ~450,000 D cases in England papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
—75% reduced hospitalization risk for O vs D
—For O, Booster >70% protection vs hospitalizations and deaths across all ages
2 and 3 dose vaccine effects vs hospitalization (both AZ and mRNA)
and
Prior Covid, without vaccination, had moderate protection (HR 0.53) vs hospitalization for Omicron, and high protection vs death.
Children age < 10 had infrequent hospital admissions and the incidence did not differ significantly between Delta and Omicron
New: Assessment of an Omicron-specific booster vs Moderna original (vs ancestral) booster in macaques: no difference
"An Omicron boost may not provide greater immunity or protection compared to a boost with the current mRNA-1273 vaccine" biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Interesting to note that the same was seen for the Beta variant with the Pfizer vaccine, original vaccine booster vs Beta-specific booster, which led to abandoning that strategy.
3rd shots of the original vaccines are performing far better than expected 👍
A very good thread on the new Omicron-specific booster study and the overarching issue by @erlichya
New @CDCgov
Reduction of death by vaccination and booster by age, per 100,00 people, vs unvaccinated, relative, with absolute data below covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Age 65+
2 shot 92% reduced
3 shot 99% reduced
Age 50-64
2 shot 95% reduced
3 shot 99% reduced
By age: cases and vaccination/booster status
As cases were rising steeply in December with emergence of Omicron, booster vs 2-shot was associated with 50% or more reduction of cases across the 3 age groups
And much higher % drop for vaccination vs unvaccinated
Which goes along with this new data posted showing booster had vaccine effectiveness of >60% vs Omicron infections covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
US lagging European peers by vaccine doses and boosters, especially notable in age 60+
"On December 20, 30% of people in the US over-65 had gone six months since receiving a second dose, compared with just 2% in Portugal; 5 per cent in England; and 7% in Denmark."
Graphic that shows differences in vaccination waning for US vs England, Denmark and Portugal, age 60+