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Feb 21 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
Putin's executive order means that the Ukraine crisis is escalating. @monkeycageblog has been publishing informed analyses over the last two months, thanks largely to @brynrosenfeld (who didn't have any idea what she was getting into when she signed up). Here are some recent ones
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… Putin claims he is protecting the people of the Donbas by recognizing their enclaves as republics. As John O'Loughlin @GwendolynSasse and @Toal_CritGeo show, a slight majority of the people there don't care who rules them.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… Is militaristic adventurism more popular back home in Russia? Nope. @dszakonyi and @KTertytchnaya find that less than 10% of Russians want to see their soldiers fight in Ukraine. War has become increasingly unpopular with supporters of Putin's own party.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… Perhaps Putin can control the information that his citizens get, to artificially boost the war's popularity? @sgehlbach and @ZhaotianL explain why that is going to be hard without brutal repressive measures.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… So why is Putin considering further aggression? One possibility, according to @ProfDownes is that he seriously overestimates the chances that he can successfully change Ukraine's regime to one that is friendlier to him over the long term.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… Another is ideological. As his speech makes clear, he and those around him have a highly skewed understanding of the historical relationship between Russia and Ukraine. @DrJMankoff explains the actual history.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… A third - according to @Prof_BearB is that Russia and Western countries have different and incompatible understandings of international order - which leads to clashes in places like Ukraine caught between the two.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… @oonuch and @javierpsandoval show how Zelensky's election has helped persuade Ukrainians to move closer to the West, by supporting NATO membership.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… Now, Western countries are figuring out how to respond - and it sounds as though some kind of sanctions are on the table. @mephenke gives the background to why Germany has been more cautious on actions against Russia - it depends on Russian energy exports.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/… And @BWJ777 lays out the questions that the US and other states will have to confront as they consider whether sanctions will be effective.
As this crisis continues, we'll be publishing more pieces. Part of @monkeycageblog mission is bridging political science and public debate at key moments when expert knowledge is most helpful. Read us at washingtonpost.com/monkey-cage/ and get our newsletter at bit.ly/TMCSignUp

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More from @henryfarrell

Henry Farrell Profile picture
Feb 18
I don’t know if anyone has done research on the relationship between workers’ willingness to unionize and their employers’ brand vulnerability to lib consumers, but seems plausible that this is important and has changed/is changing quickly, in part thanks to demonstration effect.
An alternative explanation might be that unionization is an easier sell to highly educated workers working for jobs that have higher social status (working for Starbucks perhaps more acceptable sounding to peers than working for Giant) in non-professional sectors.
Either way, this seems to me to be changing the public face of the union movement in some interesting ways (how much of a change in actual numbers remains to be seen). Unions no longer visibly tied to traditional working class/state employees/small elite sectors like pilots.
Read 4 tweets
Henry Farrell Profile picture
Feb 2
1. Today's the 100th anniversary of the publication of Ulysses. Like many Irish people, I'm related to a minor character in the book. "Professor MacHugh" in the Aeolus episode is based on my great-granduncle Hugh McNeill, an alcoholic reprobate who died in a workhouse.
2. This provides by far the most complete account of his life that I've seen jjon.org/jioyce-s-peopl…. Hugh came from an ambitious family in Glenarm in Antrim. Their father owned a baker's shop. According to family memories, one brother, Archie, left for Canada under a cloud
3. (apparently having stolen money from the business - his children tried to re-establish contact a generation later but rigid attachment to proprieties meant they got a cold shoulder). Charles joined the civil service, retired early, and lived for decades on a dwindling pension.
Read 17 tweets
Henry Farrell Profile picture
Jan 15
That Amazon weaponizes this popularity so as to politically reinforce its monopoly power is a not unimportant consideration when one wants to weigh up the pros and cons pure.mpg.de/rest/items/ite…
One crude - but nonetheless useful - understanding of contemporary US capitalism is to see it as a tacit alliance between consumers and monopolists against workers. If your universal metric of general wellbeing is consumer welfare, then that looks like a good thing.
If, alternatively, you are worried about power imbalances in the economy and distributional outcomes, that looks considerably more problematic. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Read 8 tweets
Henry Farrell Profile picture
Oct 20, 2021
1. I'm really pleased about this webcast conversation- stanford.zoom.us/webinar/regist… with @zephoria @billjaneway @cmcilwain @zeynep, Marion Fourcade and me. It's part of @CASBSStanford project on moral political economy, and a forthcoming @DaedalusJournal special issue.
2. What Marion and I are contributing is a piece on what we call "High Tech Modernism." It will be part of the special issue (which @margaretlevi and I are editing), and we're excited to see it going out into the world (draft is available at dropbox.com/s/3wy36804jhlc… ).
3. The idea behind it is pretty simple, but, we think, useful. James Scott has famously written about the "High Modernism" of the 19th and 20th century - the process of bureaucratic categorization and information collection that reshaped the world and made it "legible."
Read 15 tweets
Henry Farrell Profile picture
Sep 21, 2021
1. There are a lot of people in political science today complaining that John Eastman is speaking at APSA 2021 and suggesting APSA should do something about it. My opinions of Eastman and his memo are exactly what you'd expect given my past writing washingtonpost.com/outlook/a-cyni… But ...
2. The complaints - if they are more than just popcorn throwing, don't seem particularly deeply thought out. I say this as someone who has co-chaired an APSA meeting in the past but has no current role in the organization beyond membership and is speaking purely as an individual.
3. The first point is that APSA-as-an-organization has much less power over who does or does not attend its meetings than people seem to believe. There are some theme panels that the chairs can put together, and other places where there is a little wriggle room ...
Read 16 tweets
Henry Farrell Profile picture
Aug 6, 2021
1. A thread on this comparison by @michaelbd of Orban's Hungary with De Valera's Ireland nationalreview.com/2021/08/hungar…. As said earlier, I don't think that the comparison works. Here's why- for the huge audience for 20th century Irish history/ 21st century Hungary politics crossovers.
2. Dougherty's argument is that Orban - like De Valera - is the leader of a small country trying to preserve itself in the face of a big hostile world. And that explains much of Orban's strategy and his appeal. There are some things that explains - but much more that it does not.
3. First - as Dougherty says, Orban is genuinely popular, as Dev was. And he could go further. One reason for Dev's success was that he offered a different and more populist conservatism as an alternative to the then frugal "Treasury View" type Cumann na nGaedheal government.
Read 21 tweets

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