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Quick sequence of some of my favorite #Russia graphics so you can familiarize yourself with the scope of what is unfolding vis-a-vis #Ukraine. Russians live in the green. The wheat belt. The part of Russia that has temperature and rainfall levels to make habitation possible.
2/ Compare that to the #populationdensity map so you know I'm not lying.
3/ Russia's problem is - Russia's problem HAS ALWAYS BEEN - there are no good barriers near the populated zones to keep invaders at bay. The Russian goal is - the Russian goal HAS ALWAYS BEEN - to expand their footprint until they reach such barriers. Those barriers are in red.
4/ So the thinking goes. Russian forces cannot possibly defend the heartland from inside the barriers. But if Russian forces can reach the barriers, they can plug the gaps between them. Those gateways are the blue arrows.
5/ Think the Russians don't need to command those gaps? Look at the #Texas overlay. Russia is BIG and it has less than half America's population. It's forward position or die.
6/ The Soviet Union controlled all nine of these gaps, making it the most secure Russia has ever been. Putin's ongoing wars and "peacekeeping" missions have stationed Russian troops in another five. Ukraine is unfortunate to be on the road to two more.
7/ Russia was ALWAYS going to invade Ukraine. The question - the ONLY question - was timing. And for those of you who like to look forward, check out where the remaining gaps are...
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You're going to read a bit of panic about France's parliamentary productions, what with the hard-right National Front getting the most votes and the hard-left coming in second.
Ignore it all.
For now.
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France does its voting by single-member districts in two rounds.
First off, that means the “percentage captured by each party on the national level” is utterly irrelevant. Seats are allocated individually (somewhat like for Congress in the US).
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Second, there are two rounds of voting.
In cases where the Front or the hard-left came in first in the first round of voting, candidates who came in 3rd or worse typically withdraw, and then multiple parties rally around the anyone-but-that-guy flag.
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Lots of folks are tossing around a theory that I find unlikely: that in the aftermath of the #Prighozhin deal, the #Wagner mercs will be transferred to #Belarus in order to launch a fresh (surprise) attack on #Kyiv.
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The terms of the deal are for PRIGOZHIN to go to Belarus. All Wagner forces are to sign fresh contracts w the Russian defense ministry and return to the Donbas front in UKRAINE.
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There’s no way to move 25k-ish Wagner troops + equipment to Belarus quietly and quickly. Impossible actually, because US satellites and SIGINT are monitoring the space. Not to mention Russia really needs Wagner back in the Donbas ASAP.
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The dam is one of the very few ways to cross the Dniepr river. The Russians clearly want to make it as difficult as possible to cross.
There was a navigation lock here. It is now impossible to navigate the lower river.
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within four days, the water level will drop below the level that the Crimean Canal can function. That means no water for agriculture on the peninsula. The Russians did this to themselves. Feels like a “If we can’t have it, no one can” moment.
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Fog of war, so the normal caution applies, but it appears that the Russians are trying to retreat from #Kherson w their equipment across pontoon bridges. Since #Ukraine sees these minutes after they pop up, all have turned into death traps.
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#Russia has a very limited number of pontoons, and soon will have none. That will force the Russians to follow to very specific road corridors along the river to reach the two (badly damaged) hard bridges across the Dneiper…
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…with Ukrainian artillery and rocket fire raining down on them the whole time. The survivors will then have to get out of their vehicles and flee on foot, as the bridges are too damaged to support vehicle traffic.
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I'm getting ready to speak to a client I first addressed shortly after the 2020 elections and stumbled across this simple data chart I assembled back then. Prepare to be annoyed: 1/
1: Look at the edges. Current, self-identifying Republicans and Democrats voted for their guy. No surprise there.
2: Look at the arrows. Wyoming and Vermont were the most extreme pro- and anti-Trump states. But even there one-in-three voters went for the other guy.
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3: Look at the green block. That’s the 6% spread. Is the spread statistically significant? Sure. But that is not what “harsh national division” looks like.
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Kerch bridge update:
It's pretty obvious that the reports from last night that rail traffic has resumed were propaganda. That said, the Russians have successfully cleared one of the rail lines, so they are making progress. Damage assessments continue.
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The passenger car spend that collapse will take weeks to repair, if not months. But the other one is operating more or less normally now, I'll be at with much more thorough checks.
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let's talk cause.
Evidence to this point still points to a truck bomb IMO, but people who seem to know what they're talking about are gravitating towards a missile theory as well.
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