🧵🧵🧵🧵
1/n We haven’t seen capitulation yet, like we did in the reset of March 2020 and May 2021. Will we get it? No one has a fucking clue. Especially not CT. Is this a bear market or bull market? Who the fuck cares…there are plenty of opportunities in this market to make
1/n We haven’t seen capitulation yet, like we did in the reset of March 2020 and May 2021. Will we get it? No one has a fucking clue. Especially not CT. Is this a bear market or bull market? Who the fuck cares…there are plenty of opportunities in this market to make
2/n wealth regardless of how #BTC trades. Newsflash: while #BTC has downtrended since Nov, plenty of people made life changing gains in other sub sectors. Lets get real - unless you’re already rich, you won’t get rich from the corn. Now I’m not saying #BTC isn’t the sentiment
3/n leader. Of course it is…it would be naive to deny that. But I also believe that people are too obsessed with absolutes: bull or bear. Extended bull or extended bear. As far as I can see (from data and not emotions) we’ve been in an uptrend since the March 2020 lows. So
4/n And the lows printed since then have been in the ~$28k, ~$30k, and now the current prices. So if you’re obsessed with charts, that’s what they refer to as a higher low. Now, can it go lower from here? Again, anything can happen. Will it mean it’s the end of crypto? The
5/n probability is non-zero but the likelihood is low, imo. This is where I begin to think rationally and not emotionally. This is my current thesis on the conditions (purely price action based, which of course it’s flawed, as there are other factors which affect this nascent
6/n asset class. Now, let’s go to everyone’s favorite current events as of late: the fed (inflation, rate hikes, CPI, yaddah yaddah yaddah) and the Russia-Ukraine situation. Ok, back to some historical reference points. In 2017, the fed raised rates four times if my memory
7/n serves me well. And I think we also remember what happened that year for crypto: a cray cray bull-run. Now, I’m not saying things today are the same as they were that year, but my point is that the market decides how to interpret the outcomes of such economic policies.
8/n Most often than not, the market prices in the effects of such policy changes before they occur. Let’s fast forward to today. Are the rate hikes prices in? Maybe. I tend to believe that they are, but of course there will be some impending residual shock when they are
9/n inevitably raised to counter inflation. In recent headlines (I’ll go back to search for it if anyone wants it), a Fed official said they may not be ready to make a determination at the March meeting for starting a first rate hike. Is this of significant relevance? It could
10/n be in the short term. Could things change between yesterday and March? Of course they can, anon. The fed is notorious for flip flopping its stance. Personally, I’m not too worried about rate hikes, as I do believe they’ve primarily been priced in to this point. Now on to
11/n the next topic (by the way, I love shifting from a wide array of topics, ranging from shitcoinery, macro economics, and geopolitics…only on #CT 😂). So, the Russia-Ukraine thing. I’d like to preface this portion of my rant by saying that, for me, it’s more pointing out the
12/n elephant in the room: the media - an aggressive campaign of disinformation; a type of warfare tactic (and we are the targets). I saw some “breaking headlines” yesterday about how war broke out in Donbas. Anon, I almost spat my coffee. This conflict has been ongoing since
13/n 2014. Yet, the media outlets managed to message it in a way that made the situation look more dire than it actually is. Ok, back to what’s going on there: we’ve all come across our newly found passion- geopolitics- because we’re all degens trying to change our lives. And
14/n before a reply guy comes in here vilifying me for portraying what’s going on there lightly (I’m not, by the way…nobody should be living in these conditions) I’ve experienced warfare myself in two occasions (It’s not fun, and in my naive mind I hope we reach world peace in a
15/n lifetime not far from ours). Ok, where was I in my rant? Oh yea, the Donbas region conflict. Why do degens care? Well, the whole FUD is about a potential kinetic war, or even how these economic sanctions will shock the global markets. In terms of kinetic war risk, I don’t
16/n see it as likely for several reasons that I’m too lazy to point out here - but one of them is that Russia can’t financially afford that shit…(not claiming to be an expert, though, so be easy on me, reply guys). This point does, however, bring me back to the disinformation
17/n aspect of things. Is the media romanticizing the “decisive and swift response” from the U.S and Allies to Russia in a way that scares people? Shit, I don’t know, anon, but I found this thread to be quite interesting. I’ve posted it a few times, so here it is in case you
18/n haven’t seen it:
https://twitter.com/AliRogin/status/1495892855705022464
19/n You can make your own conclusions, but it’s pretty damn obvious (so far) that it’s part of the guerrilla disinformation package deployed to our screens every, single, day. TL;DR - ambiguity, in terms of what constitutes an invasion, etc, is being leveraged here. As it
20/n currently stands, troops alone, don’t warrant an intervention by the Allied nations. Will there be sanctions imposed? Maybe. Does Putin care? In his speech yesterday, he said he expects the West to apply sanctions regardless, so he basically was going to do what the fuck he
21/n wants. And if I were a betting man (I am, by virtue of degeneracy), I’d say he’s been preparing for sanctions, so it’s a non-event. All this said, have the markets priced in all this FUD? I think so. Of course, there may very well be more shock coming, but we didn’t just
22/n drop (yea, a painful grind down) since November 2021 out of thin air. Pelosy (shout out to the best trader out there, pond for pound) and crew cashed out at the top…so yea, it’s all part of the plan. Now, there’s a beat set of market charts that someone shared yesterday
23/n which depict market behavior in the face of conflict (I don’t have it handy, but can dig it up for anyone who wants it), shows that markets draw down as war/invasion tensions build up, and upon start of the conflict, they tend to rally. Will that happen here? That’s my hope
24/n but I don’t know shit, just like anyone else. I’m just a dumb ape trying to change my life. All I can do is look at things objectively, build a thesis, and revisit that thesis if new data invalidates it. Hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. I hope you’re doing
25/25 ok, anon, if you’ve even gotten this far into the rant session. Just know that we’re all feeling it, no matter how cocky anyone on CT seems to be. We just don’t know what the fuck is going on…but we keep pushing. Stay up ❤️
PS: apologies for the typos. I just woke up…lmao.
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