Thread by @samagreene

So, a couple of thoughts on this:
(1) Don't worry to much;
(2) Worry a little.
axios.com/putin-ukraine-…

Here's why not to worry:

The sanctions against DPR/LPR are mostly meaningless, but they're just a placeholder for the moment. There will more to come, which I would expect to be significantly expanded sanctions against against key Russian individuals and corporations.

Here's why to worry a bit, from Psaki: "To be clear: these measures are separate from and would be in addition to the swift and severe economic measures we have been preparing in coordination with Allies and partners should Russia further invade Ukraine."
Note the word "further".

Reading between the lines, what this means is that DC sees this as an invasion, but some of the European allies don't see it as really changing the situation on the ground -- at least if Putin stays behind the current line of control.

Biden has been focused since inauguration on undoing the damage Trump did to trans-Atlantic relations -- and he should be. This confrontation will last a long time, and only strong alliances will see the US through it.

But making large-scale sanctions contingent on "a further invasion" when we're only in the early hours of this invasion -- while marking a clear deterrent for Putin -- suggests that there is still a gap to be bridged between Washington and Berlin (and Paris, probably).

How important is this? Meh. As I wrote earlier today, Putin IMO won't be deterred from nor goaded into conflict by sanctions. Sanctions are already priced into what he's doing -- for now.

But my best guess is that he walks right up to the line of control and stops to see what happens next. Sanctions may have a role to play in keeping him behind that line. From that perspective, keeping some major powder dry makes sense.

The focus, then, is on Psaki's other quote: "Tomorrow we will be announcing new sanctions on Russia in response to their breach of international law and attack on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Those will need to be enough -- and surprising enough -- to create a sense of consequence, if they are going to have any impact. And even then, they may not.