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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
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Feb 24 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Ich werde eine analytische Sprache um die anhaltenden militärischen Operationen in der 🇺🇦 einzuordnen verwenden. Hinter jeder einzelnen dieser Aktionen aber steht immenses (und unnötiges) menschliches Leid und Zerstörung. Krieg ist einfach nur dreckig und grauslich.
Bis jetzt deutet alles darauf hin dass die russische Militärdoktrin der operativen Ebene Punkt für Punkt durchexerziert wird. Boden-gestützte Feuer währten nur kurz vor dem Angriff der gepanzerten Verbände. Berichte von Luftlandetruppen fließen ebenso ein.
Von russischer Seite wird alles versucht werden in mehreren rapiden Zangenbewegungen die 🇺🇦 Streitkräfte einzukesseln und zu zerschlagen. Ein Mehrfronten Bewegungskrieg unter dem Schutzschirm der russischen nuklearen Abschreckung (sollte man nicht außer Acht lassen).
Wichtig zu verstehen dass die 🇷🇺 Streitkräfte nur eine rel. limitierte Anzahl an Präzisionsmunition besitzen. Auf kurze Distanzen kann das durch elektronische Mittel gelöst werden. Bei längeren Distanzen u. Bombardments auf Städten schaut das anders aus. 👇
🇺🇦 Streitkräfte müssen nun so gut es gut geordnete Verzögerungskämpfe führen (schwierigste Art von taktischen Bodenoperationen), die ungeübt schnell in ungeordnete Rückzüge münden können und die Kampfmoral brechen. Letztere zu brechen ist Hauptziel der rapiden🇷🇺 Operationen.
Russische Verbände stossen trotz teils heftiger Gegenwehr auf allen Fronten vor. Wenn Kiew
nur schwach oder gar nicht verteidigt wird, dann werden 🇷🇺Truppen in die Stadt einziehen. Falls Gegenwehr zu stark, dann vermutlich Stadt abriegeln, Vorstädte, Int. Flughafen besetzen.
Über 100 ballistische Raketen wurden bisher von Russland abgefeuert. Einzigartig in der Kriegsgeschichte bis dato (via Pentagon).
3 Hauptstoßrichtungen der Streitkräfte sind erkennbar:

1: Von Weißrussland Richtung Süden (vorbei an Kiew); sowie von Weißrussland Richtung Kiew (2 Hauptachsen)
2: Von der Krim Richtung Norden;
3: Von Belgorad Richtung Kharkiv (schwere Gefechte dort).

Schwerpunkt auf Kiew.
Korrektur: einige waren Marschflugkörper.

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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Feb 26
Short summary: 🇺🇦 defenses have held; its air force is still flying; air-defense still in parts intact; troops are digging in in Kyiv. Morale is high. No signs of imminent collapse. A very bloody day/night ahead I am afraid to say. 🇷🇺 will massively step up military pressure.
Some 🇷🇺 2nd echelon troops have moved in; despite rapid progress on some fronts casualties have been heavy; noticeable reckless behavior of some units (e.g., operating outside air defense bubbles); lack of inter-service coordination; noticeable combined arms maneuver deficits.
Also, noticed some logistical difficulties (🇷🇺Russian armor running out of fuel); also seems that some units got lost. Learning curve for the attacker during these types of mil. operations is always steeper/bloodier than for the defender.
Read 5 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Feb 25
On urban combat in Kyiv: there are various historical examples where hastily constructed defenses, strong points, paired with hit-and-run tactics/ambushes were able to inflict significant losses on an attacking force.
Remember this is a fight the Russians want to avoid. Attack/defender ration is 6 or 10 to 1 in some instances. Huge drain on 🇷🇺manpower and materiel. I therefore think they will probe 🇺🇦defenses, use airpower, missile strikes without committing significant g. forces just yet.
Full scale- urban combat would be absolutely devastating for the civilian population. In a terrible way, the best outcome for Ukrainian defenders (inflicting huge casualties on Russian troops) would be among the worst for the civilian population in terms of human loss.
Read 5 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Sep 25, 2021
Supposedly when a journalist asked Wellington in retirement whether there was anything he would have done differently in his life he answered that he wished he would have praised his subordinates more during his military career.*
Like with many Wellington anecdotes/quotes who knows whether that's actually true. *
IMHO best film depiction of Wellington's influence on British culture/politics and the military remains "Charge of the Light Brigade" (1968) imdb.com/title/tt006279…
Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
May 12, 2021
New by @julianborger: "British and Canadian troops were more than twice as likely to get killed in 🇦🇫 as their US counterparts, according to a study that looks at the scale of the sacrifice made by Nato allies over the course of the 20-year war."

theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
"The US losses were 2.3% of its vast military presence. The UK lost 455 lives, which was 4.7% of its peak deployment level, while the 158 Canadians killed represented 5.4% of their total."
[T]he reason for the proportionally high British death toll was being based in the heart of the hotly contested Helmand province and the absence of caveats limiting soldiers’ involvement in combat."
Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
May 11, 2021
This is incredible Saturation attacks increase the penetration probability of missiles fired. To paraphrase Stanley Baldwin: the missile(s) will always get through—at least some. h/t @nktpnd
„Over 630 rockets were fired at Israel from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon, 200 of which were intercepted by Iron Dome missile defense batteries while 150 others fell short of their targets and landed inside the Strip, according to the army.“
Source 👇
Read 11 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Jan 17, 2021
What are the best/worst presidential inaugural addresses?

Best: Lincoln's 2nd Inaugural ("with malice toward none") and FDR's 1st ("nothing to fear but fear itself")

Worst: James Buchanan ("slavery" is not the issue) and Donald Trump ("carnage")

#InaugurationDay #thread
Abraham Lincoln's Second Inaugural Address (1865): ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=…

James Buchanan inaugural (1857): millercenter.org/the-presidency…

Franklin D. Roosevelt 1st inaugural (1933): avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/f…

Donald J. Trump's inaugural (2017):
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
Most beautiful passage of any inaugural address (and very apropos).

Lincoln's closing paragraph in his 1st inaugural (1861):
"The mystic chords of memory...will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature."
Read 8 tweets

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