Short summary: 🇺🇦 defenses have held; its air force is still flying; air-defense still in parts intact; troops are digging in in Kyiv. Morale is high. No signs of imminent collapse. A very bloody day/night ahead I am afraid to say. 🇷🇺 will massively step up military pressure.
Some 🇷🇺 2nd echelon troops have moved in; despite rapid progress on some fronts casualties have been heavy; noticeable reckless behavior of some units (e.g., operating outside air defense bubbles); lack of inter-service coordination; noticeable combined arms maneuver deficits.
Also, noticed some logistical difficulties (🇷🇺Russian armor running out of fuel); also seems that some units got lost. Learning curve for the attacker during these types of mil. operations is always steeper/bloodier than for the defender.
Note: Estimates are that 🇷🇺 committed only a little more than 1/3 of forces. 🇷🇺operational tempo will step up, after regrouping. There was no🇷🇺 wide-scale combined arms attack on Kyiv. What we are seeing right now are attempts to seal off the city and to probe its defenses.
Quantitative/qualitative advantage still lies with Russia. Still, this could turn out to be Russia's bloodiest war since the Soviet invasion/occupation of Afghanistan. Too early for any conclusions though. This is just the first 48+ hours of the conflict.
Chatted with my colleague Markus Reisner (Austrian 🇦🇹Armed Forces) about the three top operational problems of the 🇺🇦 forces in the days ahead. 1.) Collapse of Kyiv 2) Encirclement in the East 3.) Cut off of supply lines from West/ deny regrouping of 🇺🇦 forces.
All impressions under the fog of war of course.

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More from @HoansSolo

Feb 28
Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine 👇🧵

Most important development IMO:🇷🇺 forces have reportedly crossed Dnpr in the South a. are advancing north of Nova Kakhovka meeting heavy 🇺🇦 resistance. This means Russian forces could cut off bulk of 🇺🇦 forces east of Dnpr.
This would be a very bad situation for 🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces. It is unclear who will win this race to the Dnpr as of now. 🇷🇺 must step up operational tempo and move more troops in which will put even more pressure on Russian logistics.
Most likely Russian military objectives at this stage of the war: encircle/capture/destroy bulk of 🇺🇦 forces out in the open; prevent 🇺🇦 forces from retreating to urban centers/create new strongpoints, regroup/reestablish defense lines.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 27
Short summary of mil. situation in Ukraine: 🇺🇦 forces by and large are fighting orderly delaying actions; morale remains very high; air-defenses still operational; air force remains active (armed UAVs are hitting 🇷🇺 targets of opportunity); 🇺🇦mechanized forces counterattack.
The key for 🇺🇦 for Ukrainian forces will be to fight a orderly retreat Dnepr river, cross it, regroup a. establish new defensive positions where possible. 🇷🇺 forces meanwhile have to try to do everything not to lose contact with main elements of Ukrainian forces/keep pressure up.
So in very simple terms: this is a race to the Dnpr today characterized by fast advances along the main roads, flanking movements, while 🇷🇺 forces will deploy their fire power more indiscriminately against Ukrainian targets.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 25
On urban combat in Kyiv: there are various historical examples where hastily constructed defenses, strong points, paired with hit-and-run tactics/ambushes were able to inflict significant losses on an attacking force.
Remember this is a fight the Russians want to avoid. Attack/defender ration is 6 or 10 to 1 in some instances. Huge drain on 🇷🇺manpower and materiel. I therefore think they will probe 🇺🇦defenses, use airpower, missile strikes without committing significant g. forces just yet.
Full scale- urban combat would be absolutely devastating for the civilian population. In a terrible way, the best outcome for Ukrainian defenders (inflicting huge casualties on Russian troops) would be among the worst for the civilian population in terms of human loss.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 24
Ich werde eine analytische Sprache um die anhaltenden militärischen Operationen in der 🇺🇦 einzuordnen verwenden. Hinter jeder einzelnen dieser Aktionen aber steht immenses (und unnötiges) menschliches Leid und Zerstörung. Krieg ist einfach nur dreckig und grauslich.
Bis jetzt deutet alles darauf hin dass die russische Militärdoktrin der operativen Ebene Punkt für Punkt durchexerziert wird. Boden-gestützte Feuer währten nur kurz vor dem Angriff der gepanzerten Verbände. Berichte von Luftlandetruppen fließen ebenso ein.
Von russischer Seite wird alles versucht werden in mehreren rapiden Zangenbewegungen die 🇺🇦 Streitkräfte einzukesseln und zu zerschlagen. Ein Mehrfronten Bewegungskrieg unter dem Schutzschirm der russischen nuklearen Abschreckung (sollte man nicht außer Acht lassen).
Read 9 tweets
Sep 25, 2021
Supposedly when a journalist asked Wellington in retirement whether there was anything he would have done differently in his life he answered that he wished he would have praised his subordinates more during his military career.*
Like with many Wellington anecdotes/quotes who knows whether that's actually true. *
IMHO best film depiction of Wellington's influence on British culture/politics and the military remains "Charge of the Light Brigade" (1968) imdb.com/title/tt006279…
Read 4 tweets
May 12, 2021
New by @julianborger: "British and Canadian troops were more than twice as likely to get killed in 🇦🇫 as their US counterparts, according to a study that looks at the scale of the sacrifice made by Nato allies over the course of the 20-year war."

theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
"The US losses were 2.3% of its vast military presence. The UK lost 455 lives, which was 4.7% of its peak deployment level, while the 158 Canadians killed represented 5.4% of their total."
[T]he reason for the proportionally high British death toll was being based in the heart of the hotly contested Helmand province and the absence of caveats limiting soldiers’ involvement in combat."
Read 4 tweets

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