Thread by @HoansSolo

Short summary: 🇺🇦 defenses have held; its air force is still flying; air-defense still in parts intact; troops are digging in in Kyiv. Morale is high. No signs of imminent collapse. A very bloody day/night ahead I am afraid to say. 🇷🇺 will massively step up military pressure.

Some 🇷🇺 2nd echelon troops have moved in; despite rapid progress on some fronts casualties have been heavy; noticeable reckless behavior of some units (e.g., operating outside air defense bubbles); lack of inter-service coordination; noticeable combined arms maneuver deficits.

Also, noticed some logistical difficulties (🇷🇺Russian armor running out of fuel); also seems that some units got lost. Learning curve for the attacker during these types of mil. operations is always steeper/bloodier than for the defender.

Note: Estimates are that 🇷🇺 committed only a little more than 1/3 of forces. 🇷🇺operational tempo will step up, after regrouping. There was no🇷🇺 wide-scale combined arms attack on Kyiv. What we are seeing right now are attempts to seal off the city and to probe its defenses.

Quantitative/qualitative advantage still lies with Russia. Still, this could turn out to be Russia's bloodiest war since the Soviet invasion/occupation of Afghanistan. Too early for any conclusions though. This is just the first 48+ hours of the conflict.

Chatted with my colleague Markus Reisner (Austrian 🇦🇹Armed Forces) about the three top operational problems of the 🇺🇦 forces in the days ahead. 1.) Collapse of Kyiv 2) Encirclement in the East 3.) Cut off of supply lines from West/ deny regrouping of 🇺🇦 forces.

Markus's Info is below.

https://twitter.com/Bundesheerbauer/status/1496901235613523968?s=20&t=1X8E3BsSHOEO7fbAu2wEQw

All impressions under the fog of war of course.