New by @julianborger: "British and Canadian troops were more than twice as likely to get killed in 🇦🇫 as their US counterparts, according to a study that looks at the scale of the sacrifice made by Nato allies over the course of the 20-year war."

theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
"The US losses were 2.3% of its vast military presence. The UK lost 455 lives, which was 4.7% of its peak deployment level, while the 158 Canadians killed represented 5.4% of their total."
[T]he reason for the proportionally high British death toll was being based in the heart of the hotly contested Helmand province and the absence of caveats limiting soldiers’ involvement in combat."
"The German contingent was largely confined its bases at night and to armoured vehicles on patrol in the relatively quiet north of the country, and its fatality rate was 1%. The rates for the French and Italian contingents were 2.1% and 1.2% respectively."

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More from @HoansSolo

11 May
This is incredible Saturation attacks increase the penetration probability of missiles fired. To paraphrase Stanley Baldwin: the missile(s) will always get through—at least some. h/t @nktpnd
„Over 630 rockets were fired at Israel from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon, 200 of which were intercepted by Iron Dome missile defense batteries while 150 others fell short of their targets and landed inside the Strip, according to the army.“
Read 11 tweets
17 Jan
What are the best/worst presidential inaugural addresses?

Best: Lincoln's 2nd Inaugural ("with malice toward none") and FDR's 1st ("nothing to fear but fear itself")

Worst: James Buchanan ("slavery" is not the issue) and Donald Trump ("carnage")

#InaugurationDay #thread
Abraham Lincoln's Second Inaugural Address (1865): ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=…

James Buchanan inaugural (1857): millercenter.org/the-presidency…

Franklin D. Roosevelt 1st inaugural (1933): avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/f…

Donald J. Trump's inaugural (2017):
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
Most beautiful passage of any inaugural address (and very apropos).

Lincoln's closing paragraph in his 1st inaugural (1861):
"The mystic chords of memory...will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature."
Read 8 tweets
14 Dec 20
A First Look at the Military Lessons of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict | @KofmanMichael russiamatters.org/analysis/first…
The conflict "helped settle the q. on whether legacy air defenses...could be suitable or adapted to dealing with contemporary drones. The answer is decidedly negative, especially when combinations of drones are used for target identification and strikes, or via swarming tactics."
"The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict reiterated that individual air defense systems do not aggregate into a layered or integrated air defense, which requires short, medium and operational range systems working with a common picture and with sufficient density."
Read 6 tweets
6 Oct 20
+1 “A critical challenge to be worked out is how to transition from a dispersed approach to a concentrated attack, since at the forming-up point there will be a significant vulnerability to artillery, anti-tank guided weapons and other threats.” rusi.org/publication/ru…
Very good analysis above by @Jack_Watling.
A few quick thoughts.

1. (AI-enabled?) battlespace management systems will likely be needed for coordinated dispersed maneuver warfare in the future.
1a. Upgraded low probability of detection/low probability of intercept (LPD/LPI) communications integrated in a military internet of things architecture for C2/ISTAR could be of interest here. But tech capabilities alone will not be the answer.
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct 20
There is a chance that the impact of armed UAVs on future wars will be exxagetated as a result of the ongoing #Armenia-#Azerbajian conflict, similar to how the “game changing “nature of tactical air strikes/dive bombers was misinterpreted by the Luftwaffe after Spanish Civil War.
Imperfect analogy I know, but in both cases smaller actors fought against one another lacking integrated air defense capabilities and well-trained troops fielding cutting edge mil. equipment on a large scale.TB2 is also an evolutionary platform similar to what US fielded in past.
Apropos, for Mexican artist J.C. Orozco, the dive bomber and the tank where the symbols of modern warfare in this 1940 painting. #MOMA #NYC Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Jun 20
Ein paar Gedanken zur #Bundesheer Debatte in #Österreich.

Laut Medienberichten wird die militärische Landesverteidigung auf ein Minimum reduziert (Schwerpunkt Infanterie), das Militär auf Cyberdefence u. Katastrophenschutz ausgerichtet.

orf.at/stories/317082…

#thread 👇
1/n
Mit Ausnahme von Cyberdefence wird hier institutionalisiert was de-facto schon lange der Fall ist: Das #Bundesheer "kann nicht" mil. Landesverteidigung.

1.) Im jetzigen Rahmen sind effektive konventionelle Operationen und der Kampf der verbundenen Waffen nicht möglich.
In der Geschichte des Bundesheeres war solch ein Einsatz aber auch nie möglich aus mehreren Gründen, aber ich nenne nur einen:

Fehlende Luftabwehr (z.b., Langstrecken Boden-Luft-Raketen) und Lufstreitkräfte die z.b. Bereitstellungsräume von Panzerreserven schützen würden.
Read 24 tweets

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