While total excess deaths (including COVID) are comparable between last winter and this winter. It is clear that something else is driving excess death this year among these states.
The data shown in the table is from November 2020 to February 6, 2021 (last winter) and November 2021 to February 6, 2022 (this winter). It was mistakenly written in the column heading as Dec 6 which will be February 6.
Vaccination did not reduce COVID deaths in Colorado. Rather a lot of non-COVID excess deaths in 2021 June onward are predicted (actual number may go up as more data comes in) in 2021 (Nov- Feb 6, 2022).
This one is from Idaho. I am looking at those states which may have virus-fav weather for a longer time of the year.
This is from Washington.
This is from Oregon.
Washington, Oregon, and Idaho are neighboring states. I assume Idaho is drier than the other two states. With a relatively lower vax rate, perhaps Idaho excess death excluding COVID is relatively lower.
% shows one dose vaccination on Dec 1, 2021.
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Here we see some interesting patterns. Lower age groups died (all deaths) at a higher rate during the summer (2021) wave. We have seen from Israel and UK data that during a surge VE is near zero, zero, or negative.
It could be possible that COVID spread through vaccines, however, unvaxd younger aged suffered the most because of lower vaccine uptake. Or, it could also be possible that vaccine caused more adverse effects to younger age people during a surge.
After vaccine rollout in USA, the younger age group suffered (especially 25-44 yrs) more than the older age group. The younger age group survived better during the last winter wave, however, in the summer wave (2021) they died at a higher rate.
Data: data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Co…
It could also be possible that the summer and winter impacted differently on different age groups.
This is from Florida. Clearly, the younger age group had a very bad summer wave.
This is from #Florida. Left plots compare summer cases (2020 vs 2021) and right plots compare Winter deaths. The bottom row is without vaccination. The top row is with #vaccination. Counties are sorted from lowest (left) to highest (right) vax %.
Excess deaths in Summer 2021 (with vaccine) in Florida were 75% higher than excess deaths in Summer 2020 (no vaccine).
After removing vaccination data. Counties are sorted from lowest to highest vaccination rate (from left to right). It is very likely that vaccination causes (which helps in virus spreading) more deaths to unvaccinated people.
Rwanda and Burundi are neighboring countries. However their weather is slightly different. Burundi's summer is hotter than that of Rwanda. With AC, Rwanda's indoor can easily be virus fav while Burundi's indoor may not. Rwanda vaccinated a lot compared to Burundi.
However, Covid death is higher in Rwanda than Burundi which is expected because of virus fav weather in Rwanda. However, vaccine couldn't make any positive impact in Rwanda. Almost same peak from summer's death surge in last year.
Omicron surge in Rwanda did not take the same pattern like USA. This surge is similar to the previous surges while US omicron is way higher from the previous surges. Therefore, we cannot claim that Omicron is highly transmissible than other variants. reuters.com/business/healt…
This study shows that vaccine is alive just because of statistics. When you see a bad picture for 1 dose vaxd people, you will expect a better picture after 2 doses. Because COVID vulnerable are isolated during 1 dose. Therefore, unvaxd and 2 dose vaxd groups are not comparable.
Therefore, it is important to compare unvaxd and vaxd (who receive at least one dose, forget about 14 days protection duration).
In this study, total infected individuals: 951
1 dose vaxd: 340
2 dose vaxd: 294
total vaxd (at least one dose): 634
unvaxd: 317
According to their data, 69% (219) reported at least 1 symptom among unvaxd while 66% (419) reported among vaxd (>1 dose).
But, they reported:
Among the unvaxd, 69% reported at least one symptom vs. 57% among those who received 2 doses & 74% among those who received 1 dose only
Plot #2
Based on UK death data in 2021, COVID and all causes of deaths are higher among vaccinated people (>60 yr old) during Jan-Feb (with my conservative calculation, it's hard to get exact info)
Plot #3
COVID cases are modulated by Wet bulb temp in India. There are more to learn such as the role of other interventions based on climate conditions!