1/ From a Middle Eastern perspective this war in Europe might be an important game changer for this region as well. The balance of power has shifted in the ME already for a while. Russia is a key player (Syria), Iran is kind of an ally and supports Russia now in Ukraine.
2/ Europe is non-existant. The weakness, the cowardness, the lack of robust power, the lack of understanding non-democratic thinking (to say the least) became obvious. Yesterday some German politicians f.e. started to admit that they were all wrong for the last years with
3/ their belief of diplomatic negotiations without a credible threat in the back. The US seems to be weak as well. President Biden does not give the impression of being a real leader, strong and powerful. Maybe his age is an obstacle (at least for TV-pictures).
4/ So the Arab states and Israel do understand now even better than already before that they can‘t rely on the West anymore, especially when it comes to Iran. If the West can‘t act when an European state is in danger than why react in.the ME? This will certainly „help“ to boost
5/ the relationship between Sunni states and Israel. As for Israel the situation is delicate: the US is and will remain the most important ally. At the same time Russia is a military neighbor and Israel needs Putin‘s ok for acting in Syria agains Iranian positions, proxies etc.
6/ So it will have to maneuver somehow between Moscow and Washington. Not an easy task, especially as Israel worries about the dwindling political power of the US, which is too afraid of creating a credible military threat when necessary (as either there are Midterm elex or
7/ Presidential elex). But what becomes obvious for Israel: its own credo for decades, not to rely on military help from anyone, has been proven correct, once again. The way the West does not help Ukraine is teaching Israel the same old lesson, jews have learned for centuries:
8/ nobody will come for your rescue. Arab states start to understand it, too. The consequences: Depending on the outcome of the Vienna talks, Israel (+ Gulf states etc.) might decide to act against Tehran when they see fit. The fear of the consequences (by US and EU) is
9/ decreasing. This is good and bad news at the same time. Unless the US, but even more so the Europeans will learn their lessons from the Ukraine crisis quickly: building up their military capabilities and - very important - a credible conviction to use force if really necessary
10/ as somebody who has grown up during the time of the Cold War, I do know that one of the important reasons for making peace possible (mostly at least) was that both sides had serious potential to destroy one another. This is still the case today, of course. But today
11/ the only one who can convince the other side that he would use his military possibilities is Russia. If we want to see a more stable world at some point again - in Europe, in the ME, or anywhere else (China! I did not mention China) then it will be crucial for the Western
12/ world to understand that most of the world is not into words, diplomacy and contracts. And definitely not into „democratic values“. It‘s brutal out there. It always was. But especially Europe believed that with so called soft skills it could save the world.
13/13 now it learns the hard way that this is not the case. The states in the ME knew it always. Inspite of everything we must pray and hope for now that the West will find an answer to Putin and stop this ongoing situation as soon as possible as reasonable as possible. if at all
Sorry for all the typos etc.
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