Thread by @nicholadrummond

Some commentators are saying that what began as a war of choice has now become a war of survival for Putin. I agree. If his assault grinds to halt, how long before his position in Moscow becomes untenable? And how far will he go as his desperation grows?
1

https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1497265307571965957

A fierce insurgency is a more likely scenario, but either way, a costly stalemate and tougher sanctions biting ordinary Russians hard, there's a chance that Putin's inner circle will remove him from power. It's a question of time with Ukraine inflicting as much pain as it can.
2

The danger of a coup in Russia is Putin being replaced by someone who is even worse. The problem is his inner circle were all hand-picked by him. So they're like to be strict adherents to the cause. But finding someone may be a risk worth taking and a catalyst for change.
3

Putin being replaced is an opportunity for a new Russian leader to re-set relationships with Russia's immediate neighbours and the rest of Europe. Could an enlightened leader, a man of integrity, perhaps lead Russia to point where sanctions are dropped?
4

The one certainty of the current situation, however long it goes on for, and even if Russia is successful in subsuming Ukraine, is that it will be bad for Russia and its people in the long-term. They will be alienated and economically disadvantaged as they have been since 1917.
5

The bitter irony of this conflict is that if Russia had gone the way Gorbachev intended, it would be like Ukraine. it would be Europe's friend, ally and trading partner. Russia is a great country, but its leader is damning the hopes and aspirations of ordinary Russian people.
6

At the situation develops, I hope sympathetic nations will continue to equip Ukraine to defend itself. But, equally, I worry about what an increasingly insecure and paranoid Putin will do to survive as failure looms. I hope he will avoid using WMD of any kind.
7

If the result of this conflict is that Putin becomes the author of his own downfall and a new Russia emerges, free of Communist / KGB associations of the past, then the battles fought by Ukrainians will be worth it. Wishful thinking perhaps, but hope is always a good thing.
8/End