Thread by @nicholadrummond

Five points to make about AUKUS submarine deal:
1️⃣ If something isn’t working (@navalgroup) you don’t terminate an agreement until you’ve secured a new one. Otherwise you weaken your negotiating position. This isn’t duplicitous and it’s nothing personal. It’s just business.

2️⃣ AUKUS may signify the beginning of a new global alliance beyond NATO. Given strong bonds and mutual interests, the USA, Australia & UK were a strong foundation for this. But it doesn’t exclude other nations from joining subsequently or mean that NATO is now defunct

3️⃣ France may now choose to leave NATO or propose a new European defence alliance in its place. This could cause NATO to fracture, but could backfire spectacularly if Germany & other EU states prefer the status quo, France could find itself isolated & outside Article 5 protection

4️⃣ France believes it is important and influential on the world stage. Consequently, it’s ego has been bruised by AUKUS. This is understandable. But burning bridges and threatening revenge helps no one when the world has become so dangerous and volatile. It is a childish response

5️⃣ Potential adversaries will seek to take advantage of the rift. Russia is already trying to insert its proxy Army, Wagner Group, into Mali. China also wants to usurp French interests in Africa. In other words, France needs all the friends it can get. We all do.

In summary, the whole world knew the Australian submarine contract wasn’t working. It wasn’t a surprise. Maybe the new deal could have been handled with more diplomacy. But, France needs to get over it and avoid burning bridges, because it remains a trusted partner and friend.