Thread by @HoansSolo

Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine 👇🧵

Most important development IMO:🇷🇺 forces have reportedly crossed Dnpr in the South a. are advancing north of Nova Kakhovka meeting heavy 🇺🇦 resistance. This means Russian forces could cut off bulk of 🇺🇦 forces east of Dnpr.

This would be a very bad situation for 🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces. It is unclear who will win this race to the Dnpr as of now. 🇷🇺 must step up operational tempo and move more troops in which will put even more pressure on Russian logistics.

Most likely Russian military objectives at this stage of the war: encircle/capture/destroy bulk of 🇺🇦 forces out in the open; prevent 🇺🇦 forces from retreating to urban centers/create new strongpoints, regroup/reestablish defense lines.

I suspect the need for speed, plus botched logistics, is also the reason why we have seen little evidence of combined arms maneuvers a. well coordinated actions of 🇷🇺battalion tactical groups (BTGs) as one would have expected.

BTGs apparently were split into smaller groups along multiple axes of advance with little tactical recon/flank protection etc too keep up with what dturne out to have been unrealistic time tables. This enabled 🇺🇦 forces to strike from the air and land.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497861256975249411?s=20&t=fIjvwztPWzdgzHDyBRYgDQ

This also explains why some Russian units have been caught outside air defense bubbles. More info on an average BTG order of battle (from @IISS_org report on Russia's military modernization).

There has also been lots of evidence about lack of intra-service/inter-service coordination on the 🇷🇺 side made worse by the fact that Russian forces have simply not have had any experience with these types of large-scale military campaigns in recent history.

One of the key question for the days ahead is whether Russian forces will be able to regroup and adapt at the tactical and operational level to implement a rather unrealistic war plan. Another big question in this regard is whether 🇷🇺 forces can maintain their fighting morale.

Remember, I don't think Russian plans in this opening phase of the war are to occupy cities. Rather to encircle them, probe their defenses while destroying bulk of 🇺🇦 forces as a result of rapid maneuvers and superior firepower.

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1497955328507498497?s=20&t=A53JJbkf-XCfEFlmgo65lA

I would take 🇷🇺 announcement that they have established air superiority with a grain of salt. As long as we see TB2 strikes this is not true. Also, air superiority is relative. As long as there are Stingers on the ground any airborne operation involving helicopters will be risky.

🇺🇦 fighting morale remains high; forces have fought organized delaying actions; 🇺🇦 are conducting ambushes behind Russian lines; 🇺🇦air defenses still active. Key for 🇺🇦 forces remains a.) avoid encirclement; b.) hold on to Kyiv.

I'd avoid any larger judgements about how this war will turn out from a military perspective. We are still in the early stages of this campaign.

Last point: One determinant will be whether the Russian Armed Forces are a learning organization. 👇

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1498059569716547587?s=20&t=EfXGWACAk1wXQCDVhVZLgw

Note: Everything I say here is subject to the fog of war of course. Preliminary observations that's all.