Thread by @HoansSolo

Short summary of mil. situation in Ukraine: 🇺🇦 forces by and large are fighting orderly delaying actions; morale remains very high; air-defenses still operational; air force remains active (armed UAVs are hitting 🇷🇺 targets of opportunity); 🇺🇦mechanized forces counterattack.

The key for 🇺🇦 for Ukrainian forces will be to fight a orderly retreat Dnepr river, cross it, regroup a. establish new defensive positions where possible. 🇷🇺 forces meanwhile have to try to do everything not to lose contact with main elements of Ukrainian forces/keep pressure up.

So in very simple terms: this is a race to the Dnpr today characterized by fast advances along the main roads, flanking movements, while 🇷🇺 forces will deploy their fire power more indiscriminately against Ukrainian targets.

Kyiv is slowly being encircled with 🇷🇺 Special Operations Forces/airborne troops probing the cities defenses. Every hour the Russians delay their full-combined arms attack on the city supported by relatively indiscriminate mass fires is valuable time for the city's defenders.

Again, 🇷🇺 forces have no interest in full-scale attacks on urban centers since they lack the manpower and in this phase of the conflict need to cut off/ encircle/destroy Ukrainian formations outside the major cities. That's why 🇷🇺mechanized formations by and large bypass cities.

🇷🇺 forces continue to suffer from logistical disruptions (vehicles running out of fuel). This is relatively normal under such circumstances. There is also little evidence of ammunitions shortages to date.

More and more 2nd echelon forces are being thrown into battle by 🇷🇺. Expect very heavy fighting and a noticeable increase in Russian ground-based mass fires to break Ukrainian resistance. This will be absolutely devastating for civilian population if caught in crossfires.

Russian Aerospace Forces: SEAD/DEAD campaigns have been less intense a. successful than expected. Ground Forces: deficits in combined arms maneuvers remain evident. 🇷🇺 battlefield ISR appears to also underperform. Still little sign of cyber/extensive electronic warfare ops.

The key military objective for the Russians remains Kyiv!

See @SpencerGuard's🧵 on what to expect and for some info on basic fighting tactics in an urban environment.

https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1497583307504046087?s=20&t=uW0M4L4B107h1ut8tYSuTQ

Mick actually did a much better job summarizing the situation than I ever could. Make sure to check out this his excellent 🧵👇

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1497716025604771842?s=20&t=GUTVHosFC1s7pDBrb7q01g

This is a questions I have also been wondering. There has been evidence that some 🇺🇦 units have been effective in establishing rapid kill-chains with UAVs a. artillery. Little evidence on Russian side (again the fog of war applies to everything I say.)

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1497844759213268995?s=20&t=ECsixdi8FINqYsVhOEa1Uw