Thread by @ThreshedThought

So let’s try and take a trip into Putin’s mind.

A look at how Putin sees his strategy from now.

If you wanna read about the tactical battle, have a read of my previous thread

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1497304143836454921

That thread pointed out that Russia was expecting ukraine to collapse and welcome them as liberators. Bit like the US et al in Iraq

But it hasn’t happened like that - the Ukrainians have fought very well, and the Russians are pretty shit. Conscripts, poorly trained, without sufficient logistics (which are utterly vital in this type of armoured blitz war).

And Zelinksy, the Ukrainian President, has been a stand out success. What a leader.

There have been a number of knock-ons from that.

Firstly the west has finally got serious about sanctions (always more to do, but getting there). They are also ramping up weapons to Ukraine - particularly key ones like infantry portable anti tank missiles.

Great for taking out Russian logistics columns that have run out of gas

But potentially even more important is the fact that China hasn’t come down on Russia’s side.

Despite all the bonhomie before the olympics the reality is that Russia and China are VERY uneasy bedfellows who are in direct competition over Central Asia ….

…. Not to mention Russia’s Far East (Vladivostok was a Chinese city), all the resources in Siberia, and the forthcoming arctic sea routes.

All of these are major strategic fracture points between Russian and China.

So if you look at Chinese media is it being a bit like the bbc - unusual for them - in that it is scrupulously reporting both sides.

The Chinese abstained at the UNSC last night on the resolution condemning Russia, and has repeatedly said that the conflict needs to stop and resolved with negotiations.

Putin clearly thought he had Xi’s support. But I think that Putin’s actions have made Xi nervous that being too close to Russia might stop China attaining its goals.

This backsliding by China, coupled with various other things like Kazakhstan refusing a request from Russia for support (AMAZING when you think the Russians propped up the gov there a couple of months ago), and Cyprus (home of Russian money laundering) is pro-swift sanctions …

… is making putin really nervous.

Oh and his oligarch mates have lost $39bn in wealth since the war started.

And there are loads of protests in Russia.

How do we know he is nervous?

Firstly Russian TV is just showing normal chat shows this morning. This is not normal when your boys are out on a ‘peacekeeping’ mission.

The Russian internet watchdog has started restricting internet traffic. You can’t get photos or videos on Facebook anymore.

And putin has offered talks to the Ukrainians saying that neutrality for Ukraine will be enough the stop the war.

That’s quite a climb down from overthrowing the Ukrainian government.

So I wonder if we have seen, in the words of @MClarkeRUSI, ‘Peak Putin’?

I do think putin is worried that this might be it. And that is what makes this an exceptionally dangerous moment.

Putin cannot go back to the Russian people and his oligarch mates etc with a failure. So he might try to force the issue.

Say, at the extreme, a tactical battlefield weapon to force the surrender of the Ukrainian gov.

I’m not saying this is likely, but it is probably, as management consultants say, in the options space.

So. My question is:

Are western leaders, who after a slow start are doing ok in this crisis, starting to think about how to enable putin to climb down/leave power?

This is clearly a gamble that hasn’t worked out for Putin. But how do we stop a last roll of the dice?