Thread by @ThreshedThought

There's loads of attention being paid to Russia and Ukraine at the moment. What's really going on?

A thread.

Many argue that this is a prelude to an invasion - but I can't see that. The figure often quoted is 100,000 Russian troops on Ukraine's borders.

But this is only 50,000 troops (roughly) when you take out the non-combatants like logistics, comms, med, etc.

(And for armoured forces like those that Russia would need to use - logistics is vital).

It's about 330km from Kyiv to the nearest point of Russia ...

which when you consider that armoured forces can only really advance about 35km/day without serious resistance, and obv much slower if there any resistance ...

which means about 9 days to Kyiv. Without Resistance.

This is hardly a quick knock-out blow.

But more to the point - the SIZE of the Ukraine.

50,000 troops would disappear. It would barely be able to protect its own supply lines.

Basically, in a county like Ukraine, 50k troops is a self-licking lollypop.

You would need a million troops to invade and hold the Ukraine, at least. Two to do a proper job.

So perhaps Putin is thinking about something else.

Maybe linking up the Donbas region (currently run by Russian affiliated/supported thugs) with the Crimea (ditto).

A land bridge sort of thing.

It's more militarily possible, but pretty silly politically.

Why?

Putin wants a buffer around Russia. States that are not allied with his enemies (NATO, EU, US, etc.). At best these states would be allied with Russia, or at worst they would be chaotic, fought over and neutral.

Putin's is already getting what he wants in Ukraine.

The costs of a military adventure there would far outweigh the gains in upgrading from a chaotic buffer state to an allied one.

The main thing he wants (and tbf he does keep on saying this) is that NATO step back and stop encroaching on his borders.

So what is he doing?

It's prob not a coincidence that this adventure (or the latest round of it) is happening as Germany is bedding in a new gov (a coalition with differing views on Russia none-the-less), nor when the UK is totally wrapped up in political naval gazing because they have a clown as PM.

Another idea is that this is a bit of a demonstration (another word for this is bluff). A fishing expedition. Can we flush out some disunity between East and West Europe? Between Europe and the US? Between the UK and the EU? Between NATO and the EU? Between Germany and France?

This doesn't seem to have worked - the allies have (mostly) pulled together, reinforced NATO countries in Eastern Europe, and generally held the line. In other words - they are calling Putin's bluff.

It seems like Putin has overplayed his hand.

And so now it remains that a way needs to be found to allow Putin to climb down. Some symbolic gesture.

The longer the crisis goes on, the warmer it gets and the softer the ground gets in Ukraine anyway, making his bluff even more obvious.

(It's no coincidence that Russia tries this in the winter when the ground is frozen, and Europe is reliant on Russian gas)

Which brings me to my final point - Gas. Europe needs to buy gas elsewhere. This should have been obvious after 2014 and the Russian invasion of Crimea, if not eh 2008 invasion of Georgia.

And if they don't do that, this is going to continue.

END