Thread by @HoansSolo

Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine 👇🧵
Russia has moved around 75% of its forces it had previously deployed along the U. borders into 🇺🇦 (per US DoD). Appears that only a fraction of these have been engaged in combat yet.🇷🇺 forces are massing for assault on Kyiv.

🇷🇺 forces are in the process of regrouping, getting re-supplied, a. adapting to 🇺🇦 attacks. While 🇷🇺 are still committing tactical blunders, there are signs emerging that 🇷🇺 have abandoned their "mad dashes" to occupy key territory without support and coordinate better.

Expect to see more 🇷🇺combined arms maneuver/combat in coming days; heavier reliance on ground-based fires/more use of airpower. As others have pointed out, we will likely see BTGs fighting as whole units. Alas, this means we are entering a much deadlier phase of the conflict.

Russians continue to suffer from supply problems and are taking heavy casualties. Losses, however, are not at a level that they are yet unsustainable for 🇷🇺 forces [All of casualty figures should be treated with extreme caution of course.] oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

🇺🇦 air defenses are still operational; morale remains high; and there are no signs of imminent collapse. 🇺🇦 air force appears to have suffered greatly (unclear what remains of it). 🇺🇦 are also holding on to urban terrain; counterattack and fight coordinated delaying actions.

From what I know this by @TheStudyofWar still captures the operational picture adequately. We might see first heavy urban combat in the city of Mariupol in coming days. Watch for breakthroughs in the South. Goal is still to encircle Ukrainian forces where possible.

Also, watch out for a possible new axis of advance of combined Russian-Belorussian forces in the North East of Kyiv advancing South. As more weapon deliveries are coming in from abroad, there is also a need to cut off supply lines from the West.

We have also seen an uptick in Russian attacks on 🇺🇦 airfields and logistics centers in Western Ukraine, which could point to a new axis of advance there.

With 🇷🇺BTGs in action employing combined arms maneuvers/fires we should expect to see an uptick in Russian electronic warfare too.