Dunleavy.eth Profile picture
Feb 27 8 tweets 4 min read
BTC and ETH are less risky than you think

My analysis on ETH/BTC through multiple cycles (risk on/off, inflation regimes, rising/falling interest rates) and vs other major asset classes for @MessariCrypto

messari.io/article/re-eva…

Some cliff notes in the 🧵 below
To the riskiest growth stocks BTC averages about a 35% correlation over the last four years while ETH averages about a 30% correlation over the same time period. Notably, Ethereum has been exhibiting a much lower correlation to low/no revenue technology stocks more recently.
As cash flow has increased for ETH the last two years, correlation to the S&P and NASDAQ has increased. As most are aware the top 4 names in both are tech giants $aapl $msft $amzn $goog
What about BTC? Strangely enough it’s been tracking closer and closer to the large cap value index over time. The top names in the Russell 1000 value index are Berkshire Hathaway, J&J, JP Morgan, United Healthcare, P&G, Bank of America, and Exxon.
On Interest Rate Changes--> No surprises during rising or falling IR environments, they perform as expected but notably BTC/ETH are still inversely correlated to real yields
On Inflation--> While BTC and ETH haven’t experienced a high correlation to inflationary pressures in the past, both tokens have popped the minute strong CPI numbers have been released the last few months. They also have tracked inflation expectations very closely
On bear markets--> As expected for price action but notably builders keep building and downturns seem to be getting less severe and less protracted
Correlation between BTC/ETH remains high but I bet this continues to deteriorate as their different use cases cement themselves. We see shades of that already

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dunleavy.eth

Dunleavy.eth Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @dunleavy89

Jan 4
I missed whitepaper szn but I wrote a quick ~30-page primer to introduce institutions and new investors to blockchains, eth, web3, defi, and the competitive landscape. This is the ground-up investment case for anyone starting out. (link in next tweet)
The Investment Case for Ethereum, Web3, and Decentralized Finance
~30 pages but don't worry there are 25+ pictures and charts
drive.google.com/file/d/17zTf9r…
I tried to make this as accessible as possible. A 101 piece with some 201 data. This is a starting point hopefully to get institutions and individuals down the rabbit hole if they aren't already. Hope my @bankless @RyanSAdams @TrustlessState guys enjoy!(Yes we discuss valuation)
Read 12 tweets
Dec 14, 2021
A thread on wrapping your head around valuation in the #crypto space👇
Price to earnings: #Ethereum at a Price to earnings of 30 while growing at ~200% per year is insanely cheap. @solana and @avalancheavax have a p/e of ~2000 and 300 respectively via @tokenterminal For perspective Apple has a p/e of ~30 and historically has grown at ~30%
Coin market cap: @Bitcoin ~$900b, @ethereum ~$450b, @solana ~$50b, @Cardano $40b @Polkadot ~$25b @avalancheavax ~$20b via @CoinMarketCap. @apple is worth $3T, @Microsoft $2.5T, @Google $2T. If one of these provides the value of even one of these companies still a long way to run
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(