We are witnessing the emergence of a global power in this crisis: the European Union. I was confident that a Russian invasion w/d be a shock to Europe and lead to a robust response. But never w/d I have predicted the announcements from Germany, EU, and others. Truly stunning. 1/
In a blink of an eye Germany will spend 100bn euros on defense. To put this in context their entire defense budget is 53bn euros. Germany, Sweden, and the EU are sending lethal asst. This will dramatically grow EU's hard power capabilities. 2/
The EU was already an economic power. But it is showing its geopolitical resolve w/ sanctions. Europe will likely suffer a hit in the tens of billions of loss of economic activity. Much more so than the US. But the EU is leaning in. 3/
I also expect this crisis will lead to some structural reforms to strengthen the EU. Expect to see some real advances on EU defense and perhaps some structural reforms to create a more EU foreign policy. 4/
While I am surprised at the pace and extent of the steps, this also shouldn't have been a huge shock to those watching the EU. Anytime the EU comes under threat, it doesn't wilt, instead it fights like hell to defend its union, as @APHClarkson has noted. 5/5
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