Thread by @ektrit

UKRAINE

As a Supply Chains Engineer, as you know, I always keep in mind supply chains.

War is one thing.

Ceasefire is another thing.

After war is another thing.

1/

We are seeing Ukraine infrastructure being destroyed.

We are seeing Ukraine supply chains being destroyed.

Whoever wins the first stage leading up to a ceasefire, will have to face the fact that people need jobs and need food.

2/

Even Putin still has a restraining order on bombing civilians and hasn't bombed power generation yet, as he sees himself as Liberator, not Invader, who would have to manage people during the ceasefire or after war.

3/

Putin is playing the long game. During the ceasefire, which can last 1 months or 6 months or one year, Ukrainians will start wondering how are they were going to afford their lives, and whether war was worth it or not.

These are all normal human reactions.

4/

The clue here is about what the West will do.

Will US and West start helping Ukrainian economy immensely?

Putin knows about Inflation in USA and West and that westerners are suffering from breakdown of supply chains.

5/

Putin knows that current crop of politicians will face angry voters from inflation, and that immense help to Ukraine will cause more inflation in the West.

6/

So, it is quite likely that Putin will get a ceasefire in few days and let Ukrainians, Americans and the West digest whether they can afford to spend billions and billions on Ukraine and whether western voters could tolerate that.

7/

As I have explained, Putin attacked Georgia in 2008 during the Financial Crisis, invaded Crimea in 2014 when Federal Reserve obligated to do QE4 as shadow banking was collapsing, and now in 2022 when supply chains are breaking down globally.

8/

So, it's likely that Putin will obtain a ceasefire to see what Ukrainians and the West would be thinking about actually living their own daily lives in a state of war.

9/ end

#krisonomics
#SupplyChainWar