Thread by @ektrit

PUTIN'S MIND

thread

#krisonomics

1/

Friends, analysis depends entirely on your personal knowledge.

If your knowledge is just about finance, you will see anything through financial eyes.

If your knowledge is History + Finance, you will see everything through those eyes.

2/

If you don't know anything about supply chains, you can't include supply chains into your analysis.

The more fields of knowledge you have read or had experience with, the wider and deeper your analysis, they all intersect.

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And even after learning that knowledge you need considerable time, literally years and years, to distinguish noise from signal.

You go through a process of not just learning, but also unlearning what you now see as incorrect, and that is quite painful.

4/

So, I'm seeing all these tweets as to what Putin is thinking and/or strategizing, whether he is succeeding or failing, everybody nis trying to read Putin's mind.

Let me tell you, even Putin doesn't really know what he will think tomorrow, let alone you.

5/

This is well known to anybody who reads Theology, who reads the writings of the christian Fathers or, my favorite, reading lives of saints, as applicable Christianity is what interests me personally.

6/

Each human is born in the Image of God, which means that each human has Free Will.

Free Will is absolutely not predictable.

You personally are not really sure what you are going to think tomorrow, so is Putin.

7/

What everybody did, was that because you don't think theology matters, then you excluded Theology from your Putin analysis.

Whereas, it was only myself in the entire twitter who included theology in the analysis, this increasing the amount of signal and decreasing the noise

8/

To clarify here, I am not asking you to believe in God. I am asking you, that if you want to analyse, learn theology and stay atheist if you wish.

9/

By having knowledge in multiple fields you increase your probability to analyse in Time and Space, taking into account Scale over Time more accurately. This is a never ending process, so you can detect trends and patterns, thus thinking statistically.

10/

My personal experience is as follows:

- 49 years young
- graduated mechanical engineer
- worked as Sales Engineer for 20 years thus far
- practiced orthodox Christianity for the last 27 years.
- read theology/history for 25 years

11/

- invested at Toronto Stock Exchange for the last 14 years, stocks, crude oil, options.
- read economics for the last 14 years
- speak Albanian, English and Italian (this one has been long time not practiced)
- born and grew up in the Balkans
- immigrated to Canada in 1999

12/

- currently residing in Tirana, Albania

So, my analysis is a reflection of all these factors.

Should I have read about Biology and Medicine, my analysis would include Biology and Medicine as well.

13/

So, the reason I was the only one to get Putin right was because I noticed a pattern since Trump and Macron victories in 2016 and 2017 that Putin's and Kirill's narrative changed.

Then, Patriarch Bartholomew gave autocephaly to the Ukrainian Orthodox church.

14/

The autocephaly enraged Putin and Kirill to extreme.

Which made me compile my thread that probability was quite high that Putin would go for invasion of Kyiv.

I did not read Putin's mind, I simply followed the pattern.

Of course, Putin could have changed his mind.

15/

Putin could have changed his mind even 2 minutes before the attack, and I'm sure he has thought about it.

I only concluded that statistically, probability was extremely high that he goes for Kyiv.

And he went for it, shocking everyone but me.

16/

So friends, nobody can read Putin's mind, even Putin can't read his own mind, but we can educate ourselves to multiple fields, train ourselves to see patterns, noice and signals, and make conclusions in Time and Space, looking at Scale over Time uncertainty.

17/

Conclusion:

#krisonomics is infallible just like @Pontifex

18/18 end