Thread by @JasonPLowery

@CynthiaMLummis 1) Yes ma'am. Thank you for the question. Writing thread now:

USD & SWIFT are fundamentally monetary systems, the security of which is dependent on our ability to prevent four types of loss events from happening.

@CynthiaMLummis 2) Of these different types of financial system loss events, #4 is the most strategically significant because it represents the largest existential threat to a given monetary network.

@CynthiaMLummis 3) To prevent our financial system from experiencing these loss events, it is OUR responsibility not to perform "unsafe control actions" that could put the system in a state where we experience a loss event. But that's precisely what we're doing by DoS-attacking Russia from SWIFT

@CynthiaMLummis 4) This constraint becomes *EXTREMELY* important in the presence of #bitcoin because users now have an option to exit USD & SWIFT at massive scale for near-zero marginal cost. This creates an "unplanned change" in the environment that IDK if authorities fully appreciate...

@CynthiaMLummis 5) From Russia's PoV, getting kicked off SWIFT gives them two options for restoring zero-trust & egalitarian control over their monetary property (1) kinetic power projection, or (2) electric power projection (Bitcoin). They're signaling option #1

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1497922873289326595?s=20&t=kKhcYQJF2liciEIiPa_KZg

@CynthiaMLummis 6) So right off the bat, kicking Russia off SWIFT does escalate strategic (i.e. nuclear) tensions. But it also greases the skids for Russia to pursue Option #2 as the ostensibly nonviolent option to restore their financial sovereignty. Which means, they can punch us back by...

@CynthiaMLummis 7) ... demanding that their energy exports be priced in #BTC, thus Russia can effectively force the people who need USD/SWIFT off USD/SWIFT at no penalty to themselves b/c they're already banned from SWIFT, so there's nothing for them to lose

@CynthiaMLummis 8) And there's nothing we can do about it - we can't ban Russia from using #Bitcoin or demanding their exports in Bitcoin. And it would be detrimental to US interests to ban #Bitcoin anyways since we have the most to gain from it long term (as you already know)

@CynthiaMLummis 9) Our responsibility to avoid this, in the 1st place, is not to motivate users to exit our financial system. By kicking Russia off SWIFT, we motivate them to *accelerate* mass exodus. They drag way more people than themselves off SWIFT, at zero marginal cost, faster than...

@CynthiaMLummis 10) ... US is even aware of the strategic imperative of #Bitcoin and how vital it is for us to buy it. Now Russia basically has an excuse to be the biggest BTC 1st mover, & US has to avoid fratricide of banning ourselves from BTC

https://twitter.com/JasonPLowery/status/1467492330148147204?s=20&t=kKhcYQJF2liciEIiPa_KZg

@CynthiaMLummis 11) So we have to ask ourselves - is our financial system, already weakened by COVID, really prepared for the amount of users its about to lose by (1) forcing Russia off SWIFT, and (2) Russia potentially forcing others off SWIFT via re-pricing their exports in BTC or Yuan?

@CynthiaMLummis 12) Bottom Line: I don't think our leaders understand the immense capital flight risk they're taking by kicking 🇷🇺 off SWIFT. They think capital flight risk is safe b/c 🇷🇺's $$ stays locked in banks. But 🇷🇺 can recapture seized value & ignite capital flight en masse using #BTC

@CynthiaMLummis 13) And in the process of doing that, they position themselves as 1st movers in #BTC & while simultaneously benefitting from US having more mixed feelings & hesitation regarding #BTC support than it already has

@CynthiaMLummis 14) Summary: #BTC is a mountain. NATO isn't aware of the mountain & is placing airplane on a crash course w/the mountain. After it crashes, Russia will strategically benefit from NATO blaming the mountain f/the crash. But in reality the mountain is GOOD & we just suck at flying.

@CynthiaMLummis 15) Thank you for listening ma'am I'll stop there.

@CynthiaMLummis @CynthiaMLummis FYSA I extended thread from 11 to 14 tweets to give you a better summary of the ideas presented. Thanks again for the opportunity.

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