Thread by @ThreshedThought

History has restarted again.

A thread.

Loads of people went on about the withdrawal from Afghanistan as if it was the end of Western credibility, and started making big judgements about Taiwan and South Korea and Japan.

If the West won't stand by its allies, then surely all the allies have to be worried.

Thing is ... if you listened to Biden at the time ... he said withdrawing from Afg was so that the US could refocus on China.

It was a signal that the War on Terror was ending (thank god!) but that the US was still engaged where it saw its interests challenged.

Obviously Putin seemed to take the wrong lessons from the US (et al) withdrawal from Afg. That is the nature of hubris I guess, and being surrounded by people saying 'Yes, Mr President' for 20 years.

See here for my previous threads on Putin and the Ukraine

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497304143836454921?s=20&t=6rGEpx3jPxXdQpr-SwjhEA

And here

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497512270104084483?s=20&t=6rGEpx3jPxXdQpr-SwjhEA

And here

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1497840961208176647?s=20&t=6rGEpx3jPxXdQpr-SwjhEA

Putin absolutely believed that the West was decadent and weak; and all that was required was a bit of a shove and it would fall over.

Importantly - Xi also shares this view. You only have to look at the rubbish pushed out by the CCP to see that they also have this view.

(Now you could argue that there was lots of evidence that supports that view, not least of all the disfunction in US politics)

So Putin went into Ukraine, and it seems is having his arse handed to him on a plate.

Extraordinary sanctions, economy destroying sanctions, economy collapsing sanctions.

Arms and (clearly) targeting intelligence to Ukraine.

Germany rearming. Swiss neutrality waved. Turkey closing straits. etc.

The extraordinary pulling together of the EU, with the US playing a key role, but from behind. The EU is very much in the lead on this one (which makes the UK look at bit stupid for Brexiting, but there you go).

All of these things are going to have a number of effects.

Firstly, Xi is rapidly reassessing his assessment of the West being decadent and collapsing. Putin's actions have made it much less likely that Taiwan will get invaded (invasions across open water are immeasurably harder than land invasions across a shared border).

And the fact that Germany is rearming, and that the UK almost certainly will as well, means that Europe may become somewhat self-defending, which will free up US attention to deal with the South China Sea. This is bad news for the Chinese.

There is also the question of what is going to happen in Russia. I would give more than even odds that we are on a path to a post-Putin Russia. I have written elsewhere that the West needs to make an open hearted gesture to Russia to join it.

Frankly Russia is terrified that China is going to challenge it in Siberia, the Arctic and Central Asia.

Closer to home it appears that Europe may well be moving along a path of military integration which leaves questions about what the UK will do.

British foreign policy for the last 1000 years has been to stop anyone military power dominating the continent of Europe.

Brexit and Ukraine have finished that.

So we have lots of shifting sands at the moment and there is still lots to play for.

But this could end up looking like:

- militarily integrated EU with French nuclear umbrella
- rejuvenated US East Asian alliances under US nuclear umbrella
- Russia possibly allied with west
- China increasingly isolated.
- role of India unclear

…

…

- role of UK unclear. It has made a bed, but it appears to be the wrong one.
- UN looks totally anachronistic.

Interesting times.