Thread by @ThreshedThought

There is a bit of a needle to be threaded on the Ukraine Conflict.

A thread.

I guess what I am talking about is how it ends, as we are approaching a bit of a stalemate of aims.

Broadly the Ukrainian position is that there needs to be a complete withdrawal of Russia forces from Ukrainian territory including Crimea and Donbas (which Russia have occupied since 2014).

These seems completely reasonable to me.

Those who are claiming that the Ukrainians should recognise Russia's control of Crimea, or allow them to keep a land bridge between Crimea and Donbas, or whatever, in order to allow Putin to 'face-save' and deescalate are missing the point.

Anything other than complete Russian withdrawal effectively rewards Putin for an illegal invasion, and potentially strengthens his position.

Unacceptable for Ukraine, and for the wider International Community.

What about on the Russian side?

Well, I think here we really need to focus on Putin and his psychology.

All war is psychology, as they say.

(Actually, that's what I say in my book, #WhyWeFight!)

Putin (and Lavrov too, but I'll focus on Putin) is feeling isolated at the moment.

He launched a poorly planned invasion based on serious strategic misjudgements.

The aims (broadly decapitate the Ukrainian gov and replace it with a pro-Russia one, and get guarantees from NATO that it would pull out of Eastern Europe/stop expanding etc) were totally mismatched to the force package that they put together.

So it is impossible for him to go back to his peops in Russia (oligarchs, generals, population etc.) without some crumb of victory.

But Russia can't achieve its maximalist aims of overthrow (etc.) and the Ukrainians won't accept anything less than complete withdrawal.

So we have a stalemate, that grinds on.

Basically at the moment Putin is trying to increase the costs on Ukrainian civilians (cluster munitions, MLRS rockets etc) hoping that Zelinsky will offer some concessions (Russian control of Crimea recognition etc.)

But I'm not sure that Zel will go for that.

So back to Putin - he holds the key to this whole thing.

We need some off-ramps for Putin.

I think personally, for someone who styles himself on the Tsars, he fears being overthrown in Russia. Either a palace coup, or a military takeover, or general country-wide protests or something.

I cannot comment on how likely that is, but that is what he fears.

So I would consider personal off-ramps for Putin. What about a personal amnesty for him and his family? Exile in the Gulf or Switzerland. Can keep enough money to live ok. That sort of stuff. Transfer of power in Rus to some other faction, with elections to follow? (Lavrov too)

You could combine this sort of approach with things that drive his fear even more - like offering defection bonuses to the Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Money plus EU visa with pathway to citizenship (providing no war crimes). Bonuses for pilots who land Russia air assets in EU?

I mean the sanctions have demonstrated that the West's greatest power is economic. Why not take it further, with the added benefit that it psychologically collapses Putin's sense of personal security (i.e. the Russian armed forces are defecting)?

I don't know if this is the answer, but I do know that to thread the needle of the Ukrainian conflict we need to get creative. There is a solution that avoids this stalemate grinding on, and sacrificing 1000s of lives pointlessly.

Where are our best minds? Let's go!