In this month’s cover of @CTCWP I look at the who/what/where/when/why/how of Iranian external assassination, surveillance, & abduction plots, based on a personal dataset. ctc.usma.edu/february-2022/
A thread 🧵👇
2. This study is based on a dataset that includes 98 cases of assassination, abduction, attack, & surveillance plots by the #Iran regime from Dec 1979–Dec 2021
3. WHO is targeted by #Iran? Of the 98 cases, 42 target dissidents, 31 target Jews/Israelis, 24 target diplomats, 24 target Western interests, & 7 target Gulf interests (note: some cases target multiple)
4. In the last decade (55 cases), 22 target dissidents, 25 target Jews/Israelis, 19 target diplomats, 12 target Western interests, & 6 target Gulf interests
6. WHO are #Iran ‘s perpetrators? Iranian operatives are preferred, but of 98 cases, 38 cases use non-Iranians/locals, 21 cases use dual nationals, and 7 cases outsource to criminal orgs
7. #Iran and #Hezbollah have actively recruited and deployed dual-nationals for several years now. They are expected to travel & operate using their non-Iranian docs. I noted this trend in @CTCWP in 2020 ctc.usma.edu/fighters-witho…
8. In 2018, registered Iranian diplomat to Austria Assadollah Assadi plotted to bomb the annual @iran_policy conference in Paris, but this was just 1 example of #Iran using gov officials for terror france24.com/en/live-news/2…
9. Iranian diplomats/operatives w/ diplomatic cover were involved in 22 plots in the dataset, including 13 in the past decade. I wrote about this phenomenon w/ @CTCWP in 2018 ctc.usma.edu/irans-deadly-d…
10. WHAT Iranian external ops are we talking about? Of the 98 cases in our dataset, 42 are assassination plots, 10 are abduction plots, 21 are indiscriminate attack plots, & 54 cases involve surveillance
11. According to the dataset, pre-2011 most assassination plots used Iranian operatives (21/24), but in the past decade Iran has been just as likely to dispatch locals/non-Iranians & dual nationals as Iranians
12. The 2011 #Iran plot targeting the Saudi ambassador to the US used Iranian-American dual national Mansour Arbabsiar. Following the arrest, @ODNIgov James Clapper testified that Iranian officials had “changed their calculus” washingtonpost.com/world/national…@gregpmiller
13. HOW does Iran attack + assassinate? Most cases use small arms or explosives, but bombs have become somewhat more common vs individuals & a couple of abduction cases have used sedatives
14. The biggest recent development is use of cyber tools 4 surveillance & targeting. In 2012, #Iran recruited @usairforce intel specialist Monica Witt, who later researched USIC personnel & put together “target packages” on her former colleagues fbi.gov/wanted/counter…@FBI
15. Iranian operatives have used skillful tradecraft in some cases, but poor judgment in others. When police discovered a 2012 #Thailand plot, one operative threw an explosive at police & blew off his own legs bbc.com/news/world-asi…
16. WHERE does #Iran operate? Of the 98 cases, 53 occurred in North America (14) or Europe (39), while 43 occurred in places like South America (4), Africa (10), Asia (21), & the Middle East (8)
17. Of the 20 cases targeting US interests, 12 occurred outside the US in countries with more lax security systems—frequently in Central Asia, the Gulf, & Africa
18. The WHEN & WHY of Iran attack planning are a lot harder to pin down. Iranian sticky bomb plots in 2012 were clear—they were part of its shadow war w/ the West after attacks on #Iran ’s nuclear program washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
19. Others like the Arbabsiar case are less clear. There is suspicion it was revenge after the crackdown on “Arab Spring” protesters in Bahrain. Can't know for sure using only open source data cnn.com/2013/05/30/jus…
20. Iran’s antipathy toward Israel is real, but most typically pursued via proxies. By acting through proxies like Lebanese #Hezbollah, #Iran manages risk & projects influence well beyond its borders. Note recent plot in Colombia timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-plan…
21. Maybe the biggest takeaway: Iran pursues plots in a very aggressive fashion, even at times and in places that are particularly sensitive (including JCPOA & current renewal talks)
25. I love publishing with @CTCWP Sentinel, not only for its wide reach & smart readers, but for the tremendous editing of @CruickshankPaul@KristinaKHummel & their team. It's an honor to have this paper on the cover of this month's volume. Thank U! ctc.usma.edu/february-2022/ //END
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Thread 🧵re SOF raid that took out ISIS leader Qurayshi: 1. Like previous administrations, Biden seeks to get out of 'endless wars' and pivot from Mideast to Asia. Adversaries get a vote, however, so CT efforts must continue. Biden: we will come after you.
2. CT efforts should be seen not in terms of victory or defeat, but rather as an ongoing effort— short of both war and peace—in which both lethal and nonlethal tools are employed to compete with adversaries and disrupt acts of terrorism washingtoninstitute.org/media/4359
3. CT officials very focused on making sure any shift in CT policy seeks a maximum return on US 20-year investment in CT while preserving the many advances made during this period. With fewer troops on ground, looking to leverage opportunities to keep adversaries off balance
1. ~20 yrs after 9/11, it's time 2 think thru what a rationalized & sustainable U.S. CT global posture should look like. We've built great CT tools over 20 yrs, but tools should not dictate strategy. Next week @WashInstitute publishes my CT policy review paper, lots 2 discuss
2. Biden admin interim guidance echoes broadly bipartisan desire 2 rationalize U.S. investment in CT that goes back at least two administrations including pledge not to engage in “forever wars” & to “right-size” U.S. military presence in Mideast whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
3. When it comes to fighting terrorism overseas, mood has shifted to focus on groups presenting threats to homeland, while addressing regional terrorist threats thru intel & action by local partners. But such a shift comes with risks
THREAD: French President Macron recently denounced #Hezbollah's attempts to pose as a legitimate political party while engaging in militant activity independent of the Lebanese state. Here I explore why it's time for Paris resent on Hezbollah washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
2. Last month #Hezbollah threw a wrench in French efforts to stabilize the Lebanese political system following the tragic Aug 4 explosion in Beirut. Macron's response caught the group off guard & came on heels of new revelations re Hezbollah activities in Europe
3. According to U.S. officials, Hezbollah has been stockpiling caches of ammonium nitrate—used to make explosives for terrorist attacks—in Europe, including in France washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter…
Amb Nathan Sales @StateDeptCT tells @AJCGlobal about newly revealed cases of #Hezbollah stockpiling caches of ammonium nitrate in ice-packs across Europe.
These have been moved thru Belgium, to France, Greece, Italy, Spain & Switzerland--explosives 4 future plots in Europe
2. Amb Sales @StateDeptCT@AJCGlobal that ammonium nitrate ice pack caches also found &/or destroyed in France, Greece and Italy. Additional LH ammonium nitrate ice packs may still exist in Greece, Italy, and Spain
3. German Min Elgelke notes that prior to banning #Hezbollah authorities found "substantial amounts" of ammonium nitrate in ice packs in Southern Germany. Cannot say more here, he explains, bc this was an intelligence operation.
1. From 2012 to 2019, authorities in the US and Cyprus arrested 5 #Hezbollah IJO operatives. Law enforcement officials learned much about Hezbollah’s covert operations from these cases, including details being made public for the first time in this article.
2. Taken together, these cases-along with those involving operatives in Thailand & Peru-illustrate Hezbollah’s external operations modus operandi, senior handlers, communications techniques, travel patterns, terrorist training, & even limited info about operatives' pay scale
Breaking: Huge if proven true... WELT reporting Iran's Qods Force shipped Ammonium Nitrate to #Hezbollah in Beirut in 2013-2014. Three shipments were reportedly sent via airport, sea port and overland, totaling 630-670 tons of ammonium nitrate. welt.de/politik/auslan…
The #Hezbollah procurement agent who coordinated the shipment, according to WELT, was Mohamad Qasir. For full background on Qasir & Hezbollah's weapons procurement channels, see my @CTCWP piece here washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…