Another @RadioFreeTom style “bad feeling” thread and why we need to both deal with a breaking crisis but also think and plan long term. 1/
First bad feeling: scorched earth. For years at track 2 events, Russian interlocutors would complain that the West was inviting Ukraine into the Euro-Atlantic community but expecting Russian energy transit fees to continue to be supporting the Ukrainian treasury. If the 2/
statement from @BrunoLeMaire posted earlier is the endgame for Russia, I worry Russia gives the West Putin’s version of the Pottery Barn rule for Ukraine: we broke it, you own it. 3/
Who is going to lead and pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction and integration? For the EU, how much attention and funds Ukraine gets will be contested against other priorities (Western Balkans, greater Mediterranean, etc.) plus the willingness of EU domestic publics to shoulder 4/
the burdens. As @andrewmichta & others might agree, an ambiguous narrative of Ukraine as “relatively European” won’t be sufficient. 5/
For the U.S., where Ukraine fits in to long term strategic priorities needs to be addressed. @ElbridgeColby among others is warning that continuing to delay or postpone Indo-Pacific needs, esp. the long term sustained investments that will take years to be completed, 6/
cannot be constantly distracted by responding to near term crises. Asian partners who have seen rhetoric not match resources for the last ten years of the so-called pivot/rebalance will draw their own conclusions. 7/
I am convinced that India’s fence-sitting on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not simply post Soviet nostalgia but a very real concern about keeping Russia as an option for fear U.S. commitment to prioritize the region will be inconsistent.
This brings us back to the @IanBrzezinski / @ElbridgeColby debate in @FPRI Orbis. Does responsibility for postwar Ukraine fall primarily on European shoulders (with the U.S. less prepare to backfill any deficiencies) in order to concentrate on Asia, or does the U.S. play 9/
a leading role but gets even stronger commitments for a more robust European effort in the Indo-Pacific? And both sides of the North Atlantic need to start thinking much more creatively about how Africa needs to be much better integrated into the Atlantic community. /10
If we are headed into long term competition with China with a post Ukraine Russia firmly bound to Beijing creating @vtchakarova’s #dragonbear, then Africa, and Latin America, become key components of a new arsenal of democracy. But this takes preparation and focus. END
Update: concerns raise by @DrJPPham about the #SOTU …
https://twitter.com/drjppham/status/1498865830179786757
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