Thread by @FPRI_Orbis

Briefly, also seeing a good deal of confusion. A No Fly Zone is a declared region and airspace over which specified types of aircraft cannot enter. But people are saying that a NFZ would allow strikes on Russian convoys. That means enforcing a No Drive Zone or No Movement area.

https://twitter.com/BrunoTertrais/status/1499142670110834692

Longer points, now that I've finished teaching Cold War ... our modern discussion about NFZs begins in aftermath of 1991 Gulf War. Fear about Saddam Hussein's use of air power to crush Kurdish and Shi'a rebellions leading to massive refugee flows gives UN basis to generate 1/

resolution that Hussein's use of air power presents threat to peace and security of the region. In south, Hussein regains control with land power. In north, where Kurdish peshmerga fighters can hold some territory, NFZ allows for de facto autonomous area--although NFZ cannot 2/

prevent subversion of some of the Kurdish politicians and partial return of Iraqi forces. Iraqi NFZs prevent Iraqi military aircraft from operating in the two zones, and for U.S./allied aircraft to deliver proportional responses to any attacks (e.g. if an Iraqi AA site fires, 3/

fire can be returned to that exact site. (Operation Desert Fox in 1998 was a separate set of military attacks, for reported violations of the cease-fire agreement having to do with weapons inspections, and was not part of the NFZ arrangement.) 4/

NFZs in Iraq did not prevent or preclude Iraq from deploying land forces in the south or north, and did nothing to support any efforts to remove Hussein. And SecGen Ghali later said the resolution on which they were based, 688, which authorized necessary means for delivery of 5/

of aid and an end to repressive measures, did not allow for perpetual patrolling of the skies. NFZs were developed as a tool to enforce 688. 6/

Some of the confusion about what NFZs are comes from the expansion of the Libya mission in 2011. UNSC 1973 envisioned a NFZ as a way to protect civilian enclaves and to permit attacks to protect civilians. Very well aware, as with the whole contested debate over what was 7/

promised regarding NATO enlargement after unification of Germany, that people remember what they want to remember, but Indians and Russians (both countries abstained) thought they were voting for NFZs as understood in 1991--protecting enclaves. Libya NFZ become basis for more 8/

direct action against Gadhafi government. This is why some see NFZ in Ukraine as then equaling attacks on Russian forces in Ukraine. Also, the way Libya went changed Russian perspective of NFZ. This also has implications for things like humanitarian flights. Kremlin will see 9/

this as disguised way to intervene. Could NATO use similar language as in UNSC 688 or on basis of Article 4 to set up a deconfliction zone on Ukraine's western borders, where, to prevent incidents, all outside aircraft would be banned? Possibly, and that might create 10/

de facto safe havens. Russians might be open to it to avoid a repeat of 2015 incident when jet crossed into Turkish airspace for a few seconds from Syria and was shot down. But any major action to close Ukrainian airspace to Russian forces, or to use airpower to strike 11/

Russian forces on the ground, runs the risk of escalation. Essentially, a country would have to accept becoming a co-belligerent with Ukraine. President Duda of Poland summed up where we are: “We are not sending any jets to Ukraine because that would open military inference 12/

in the Ukrainian conflict. We are not joining that conflict. NATO is not party to that conflict. ... We are supporting Ukrainians with humanitarian aid. However, we are not going to send any jets to Ukrainian airspace." @AndrzejDuda can't be accused of ignoring Ukraine or 13/

@AndrzejDuda not helping, but he is being prudent at this juncture. Per reporting from @CNN @NadaaBashir (cnn.com/europe/live-ne…) END

UPDATE: it's official: NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg on no NFZ for Ukraine: "We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine."