Thread by @WarintheFuture

Six days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress in the north and east, but more in the south. My 6th set of observations, noting there is a long way to go in this campaign. 1/25 (Image via @IAPonomarenko)

2/25 Outstanding reporting continues from many sources on the Russian invasion. This includes @KofmanMichael @maxseddon @IAPonomarenko @RALee85 @shashj @DanLamothe @ikhurshudyan @McFaul @defenceHQ @thestudyofwar @OrlaGuerin @siobahn_ogrady among many others. Follow them all!

3/25 The war appears to be split between two key areas, and two forms of military maneuver. The north and northeast front on one hand is slow and plodding. The southern front on the other hand seems to featuring more maneuver. This map from @washingtonpost is a useful reference.

4/25 In the south, the Russians have almost completed securing a ‘land bridge’ in the south from Russia to Crimea. This would also cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov, which will have implications for its economy

5/25 The cities of Kherson and Mariupol are probably surrounded. It is likely these will be the locations of urban combat, which may draw in Russian forces that might otherwise have been used to continue securing other areas in the south.

6/25 At the same time, the Russians continue to commit additional combat forces in the north. According to the latest background briefing at the Pentagon, covered by @danlamonthe, Russia now has committed about '80% of its combat power’ initially arrayed at the Ukrainian border.

7/25 There is an increase in the use of artillery, rockets, thermobaric weapons and air delivered munitions. The recent strikes on the centre of Kharkiv and in Kyiv are probably, sadly, are just the beginning of this more brutal phase of Russian operations.

8/25 This is being exacerbated by a greater use of dumb bombs and artillery, and a decline in precision strikes. @DanLamothe covers this in more detail here: washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

9/25 In earlier posts, I have noted that we should see evidence of a revised Russian campaign approach in the next day or so. They have shown the capacity to learn in the past – and failure is a good teacher.

10/25 It is not obvious yet that they are learning. Or at least, not learning enough. I keep waiting for the Russians to change their approach and demonstrate even a medium level of tactical & operational competence. They aren’t. Because of that, this war will be prolonged.

11/25 The large military traffic jam (or parking lot) in the north is a great example. The Russians have been fortunate that the Ukrainians have not made them pay a higher price for this massive queue of military power. politico.com/news/2022/03/0…

12/25 Why is this? Perhaps the Ukrainians might be running short of precision munitions and are preserving them for higher priority tasks.

13/25 Or, the Russians may have finally sorted out their air defence blanket to include counter drone systems which would make this a hard target against which Ukrainian leaders may not be willing to waste limited UAVs.

14/25 Or it might be just that good military commanders always try to stay out of the way of an enemy making a mistake. Perhaps Ukrainian commanders are happy to sit back to and let the Russians continue tying themselves in knots during this ‘advance’.

15/25 Other evidence to support their tactical and operational shortfalls includes this on their communications. As I have noted, it is a stunning shortfall for a contemporary, combined arms military force.

16/25 Not only is it indicative of poor planning and training beforehand, but of professionally corrupt and incompetent military leaders who are literally throwing away the lives of their soldiers.

17/25 This quote from Williamson Murray, therefore, is quite relevant right now. As someone who has dedicated their life to the training, education and leadership of soldiers, it is hard for me to describe Russian military leadership at present as anything other than ‘slovenly’.

18/25 So what of the next few days?

19/25 Most analysts have predicted over the previous days that we are entering a more brutal and destructive phase of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That is now playing out.

20/25 In the south, the Russians may slow their formation of the Russia to Crimea land bridge because their combat forces will be sucked into urban combat in Kherson and Mariupol. However I expect their thrust north from Crimea to continue.

21/25 In the east, the military operations around and inside Kharkiv will continue. If the Russians do capture this city, it may free up some forces for a continued advance to the west and south.

22/25 Together, this could see an encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the east. As write here, Ukrainian military and political leaders will have a big decision to make about this in the short term. smh.com.au/world/europe/t…

23/25 Kyiv will remain a major draw for Russian combat power and the attention of the world. The #Ukrainians have undertaken significant preparations for what is likely to be a decisive, destructive and extremely bloody battle.

24/25 The ‘Battle of the Cities’ in Ukraine has begun. The outcome of these urban fights will have a major impact on the eventual terms under which war termination takes place.

25/25 My observations, part 5, ends. Thank you to the many followers, old and new, have been reading and sharing these posts. I hope they have provided useful insights.