NB. I don't believe we're anywhere near nuclear warfare in Europe. But the possibility exists. Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov have executive authority to go nuclear. Senior Armed Forces commanders already have devolved authority to use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. 1/
The probability of nuclear warfare happening remains extremely low. But the possibility exists and the probabilities can change very quickly depending on events and changes in Russia's win vs lose perceptions. Ultimately, it's a power decision, not a military one. 2/
The primary executive control of nuclear weapons use exists with Putin. It is hoped that both Shoigu and Gerasimov have to concur before activation; if not, they too have indpendent executive authority in case of leadership decapitation. 3/
But the pertinent point now, regarding war in Ukraine and talk of 'no fly zones' and such like, is that if Putin feels Russia is losing, the psychological barrier against initiating nuclear warfare is lowered. Doesn't have to be madness; just personality. 4/
This - the psychology of nuclear authority and command in Russia - is what concerns NATO, the Pentagon, and every allied military command in the West. There is a threshold somewhere beyond which Putin (or the other two) will feel they have nothing to lose from going nuclear. 5/
There is absolutely no way of second-guessing Putin's real state of mind (or Shoigu's or Gerasimov's) or where the threshold exists. The one strong assumption is that 'losing' a war will cross that threshold - hence 'escalate to de-escalate'. 6/
The other strong assumption is that direct engagement in combat between Russia and NATO forces - something as simple as jet on jet - could cross that threshold. Simple machismo, laddish behaviour, pissing contest psychology: You shot my jet, I'm gonna shoot two of yours, etc. 7/
Once the threshold is crossed, especally by a 'failed' and 'beaten' leader who already has issues, the decision to go nuclear becomes more appealing in the sense of 'payback', 'we all go down together', 'serves you right' reasoning under stress and irrational decision making. 8/
Putin is clearly not acting like a normal rational leader of a stamp collector's club let alone the world's second most powerful nuclear armed state. Mix that with potential failure of his war, total isolation, bankruptcy of the state, loss of power, potential ouster = danger. 9/
Putin has a personal threshold at which he feels he has nothing to lose anymore. He lacks the moral strength to raise that threshold (as a nuclear leader). Therefore, that threshold is likely to crossed earlier than some people expect. But we're not there yet. 10/
The point about a 'No Fly Zone' is that it means NATO forces will be in combat situations with Russian forces. That challenge or not being able to win, or even losing in Ukraine, plus combat with NATO will likely lower Putin's threshold further. 11/
Desperate people do desperate things. If Putin feels he's going to lose control and power, he is likely to feel he has nothing left to lose. The fact that he has gone to war in such a way against Ukraine indicates that he has no qualms about large-scale casualties. 12/
Going nuclear would be an irrational but logical step for somebody in Putin's state of mind: a last throw of the dice, a last statement for the world (what's left of it) to remember him by. The threshold crossed. Normal people don't go to war on Ukraine. Putin is not normal. 13/
And that's why there can be no 'No Fly Zone' or bases in Poland for the Ukrainian Air Force. Putin may cross his personal threshold because Russia is losing against Ukraine - but there's nothing to gain, and everything to lose, from pushing that threshold lower for him. End/
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