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@Sino_Market

Oct 8

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1843472202496409938

🇨🇳#CN_Update Thread for NDRC
NDRC: Consumption in the market was robust during the just-concluded National Day holiday, full of confidence in achieving the target tasks of economic and social development for the whole year.
#China

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1843472202496409938

🇨🇳NDRC: China's financial sector has recently stepped up its efforts to launch a package of incremental policies to promote a sustained economic upturn for the better.
#CN_Note
No latest policy measures have been proposed by the NDRC yet.

🇨🇳NDRC: China's market expectations have shown notable improvement recently.
To strengthen support for local governments in debt swaps to mitigate debt risks.
#China

Read 5 tweets

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@Sino_Market

Jul 19

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1813915734986420727

🔴CPC press conference begins.

https://twitter.com/Sino_Market/status/1813915734986420727

The "Decision on Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese-style Modernization" proposes more than 300 major reform measures, all of which pertain to aspects of systems, mechanisms, and institutions.
🇨🇳#China #CPC

🇨🇳Some details:
🔸Need to develop policies and mechanisms for the elderly care industry
🔸The systems for property rights protection, information disclosure, market access, and bankruptcy exit need to be improved.
🔸A growth mechanism for future industry investments should be established.
🔸Local governments' autonomous financial power should be increased, and local tax sources should be expanded. #LGFV
🔸Should study tax system that adapts to new business models.
🔸Proactively align with international high-standard economic and trade rules to expand institutional opening.
🔸Unilateral opening should be expanded for the least developed countries.
🔸Mechanisms to promote high-quality and sufficient employment should be improved.

Read 6 tweets

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@Sino_Market

Jun 17

⚡#China May economic data:
Retail Sales 3.7% y/y [Est.3.0%, Prev.2.3%]🔼
Industrial Growth 5.6% y/y [Est.6.0%, Prev.6.7%]🔽
Urban Unemployment 5.0% [Prev. 5.0%]
YTD Fixed Asset Investment 4.0% [Est.4.2%, Prev. 4.2%]🔽
🇨🇳#EconTwitter 1/ Thread

1⃣ #China's Jan-May industry output +5.6% y/y or +0.3% m/m.
2⃣ #Crudeoil refinery -1.8% to 60.52 million tons.
Power generation +2.3% to 0.72 TWh. #OOTT
3⃣ #Automobile production +1.3% to 2.35 mln units, NEVs +33.6% to 0.92 mln units.
4⃣ #Steel production +3.4% to 1.23 trillion.

🇨🇳In Jan-May, #China's total retail sales were recorded at 3.921 trillion yuan, up 3.7%y/y(expanded).
🟦Retail sales of goods were 3.5 trillion yuan, which rose by 3.6%y/y; (expanded)
🟨Total revenue for the catering industry was 427.4 billion yuan, which rose 5.0%. (expanded).

Read 4 tweets

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@Sino_Market

Mar 9

⚡JUST IN:
China February
Annual CPI 0.7% [Est. 0.4% Prev. -0.8%]
Monthly CPI 1.0% [Est. 0.4% Prev. 0.3%]
Annual PPI -2.7% [Est. -2.5% Prev. -2.5%]
Monthly PPI -0.2% [Prev. -0.2%]
*The first rise in consumer prices since August.
#CPI #China #deflation #PPI #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
1/ thread

CHINA CPI BREAKDOWN:
🔸February annual CPI rebounded sharply, the most since Sep. 2009.
🔸The core CPI rose by 1.2% y/y, vs 0.4% y/y in January, marking the highest increase since February 2022.
🔸Food prices dropped by 0.9% y/y, narrowed by 5 percentage points, due to Chinese New Year effects.
🔸Pork roses by 0.2% y/y, for the first time in 9 months.
🔸Vegetables and aquatic products have risen by 2.9%, and 4.1% from the decline in January.
#PPI #Industry #China #EconTwitter #OOTT #deflation 🇨🇳

CHINA PPI BREAKDOWN:
🔸PPI decline narrowed in February.
🔸PPI -0.2% m/m🟨, with a -0.2% input prices🟨 and a narrower decline in producer prices for consumption goods (-0.1%)🟨.
3/
#PPI #Industry #China #EconTwitter #OOTT #deflation 🇨🇳

Read 4 tweets

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@Sino_Market

Mar 7

⚡ China's Jan-Feb trade balance at 890.86 billion yuan:
#Exports +10.3% y/y, Prev. +3.8%
#Imports +6.7% y/y, Prev. +1.6%v
Trade balance at $125.16 bln in USD term
#Exports +7.1% y/y, Est. +1.9%
#Imports +3.5% y/y, Est. +1.5%
1/n #trade #economy 🇨🇳🇺🇸

⚡China exported and imported 6.61 trillion yuan(+8.7% y/y) of goods in yuan term or $930.86 bln(+5.5% y/y) in USD term in January and February.
2/n #China #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳🇺🇸

⚡#China's Jan-Feb #trade with
ASEAN +8.1% y/y to 0.993 trillion yuan
🇪🇺EU -1.3% y/y to 0.832 trillion yuan📉
🇺🇸US +3.7% y/y to 0.707 trillion yuan
🇰🇷S.Korea +2.9 % y/y to 0.337 trillion yuan
4/n #China #trade 🇨🇳

Read 5 tweets

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@Sino_Market

Dec 15, 2023

🧵10 Key Prediction For Chinese Economy in 2024 by Yuekai Securities #China
1) 2024 GDP growth to be set at around 5%.
Based on the average growth rates calculated from the base year of 2019, the two-year average growth rate for 2021 and 2022 is 5.3%, while the three-year average growth rate is 4.5%. It is projected that the four-year average growth rate for 2023 will be 4.7%. As long as the five-year average growth rate for 2024 sees a slight increase to 4.8%, the year-on-year growth rate for 2024 is expected to reach 5%. Of course, the recovery of the average growth rate relies not only on the inherent economic momentum but also on the support of growth-stabilizing policies.

2) The gap between social retail consumption in 2024 and the level of potential trend is expected to narrow once again. There are several factors contributing to this:
1. Accelerated nominal economic growth, which drives an increase in household income.
2. Continued recovery in the average consumer inclination, leading to improved income elasticity of consumption.
3. Ongoing relaxation of supply constraints in offline service industries, providing consumers with more consumption scenarios.
4. Support and stimulation of durable goods consumption through policies such as housing delivery and consumption promotion.
These factors combined are anticipated to contribute to the narrowing of the gap between social retail consumption in 2024 and the potential trend level.
#China #Consumption
Graph: There is currently a significant gap between social retail consumption and the pre-pandemic trend level.

3)The drag from real estate investment is diminishing, while infrastructure and manufacturing investment maintain high growth rates.
Graph: Faster growths in infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment offset the decline in real estate investment
🔵Completed fixed-asset investment
🔴Property investment
🟢Manufacture industry investment
🟣Infrastructure investment
It is projected that the growth rate of fixed asset investment will rebound to 4.9% in 2024, with real estate investment narrowing its decline to -3%, and manufacturing and infrastructure investment maintaining high growth rates of 6.6% and 8.5% respectively.

Firstly, the drag from the real estate sector is weakening. After nearly three years of market adjustments and continued efforts in real estate policies, the decline in real estate sales and investment will narrow. Projects such as urban village transformation will also contribute to this improvement.

Secondly, infrastructure investment continues to strengthen. Measures such as issuing 1 trillion yuan worth of government bonds by the end of 2023, a potential deficit ratio exceeding 3% in 2024, and policy-driven financial instruments provide support. Infrastructure investment is expected to have a strong start.

Thirdly, high-end manufacturing maintains high growth rates, benefiting from industrial upgrades, the need for industrial security, and focused support from financial resources. Looking at the usage of structural monetary policy tools by the central bank in the first three quarters of 2023, the support plan for housing delivery loans and special refinancing for real estate companies had respective quotas of 200 billion yuan and 80 billion yuan, but only added 5.6 billion yuan and 0 yuan respectively during the year. In contrast, tools supporting carbon emissions reduction, special refinancing for coal clean and efficient utilization, technological innovation refinancing, and equipment upgrading and renovation refinancing saw additions of 200.1 billion yuan, 181.3 billion yuan, 145.6 billion yuan, and 86.3 billion yuan respectively during the year. This reflects the enthusiasm of financial institutions in providing credit for areas such as technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, and green development.
#China #property #realestate

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