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FICC investor, researcher, energy observer. Covering China's business and market.
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Jun 17 4 tweets 4 min read
⚡#China May economic data:
Retail Sales 3.7% y/y [Est.3.0%, Prev.2.3%]🔼
Industrial Growth 5.6% y/y [Est.6.0%, Prev.6.7%]🔽
Urban Unemployment 5.0% [Prev. 5.0%]
YTD Fixed Asset Investment 4.0% [Est.4.2%, Prev. 4.2%]🔽
🇨🇳#EconTwitter 1/ Thread

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1⃣ #China's Jan-May industry output +5.6% y/y or +0.3% m/m.
2⃣ #Crudeoil refinery -1.8% to 60.52 million tons.
Power generation +2.3% to 0.72 TWh. #OOTT
3⃣ #Automobile production +1.3% to 2.35 mln units, NEVs +33.6% to 0.92 mln units.
4⃣ #Steel production +3.4% to 1.23 trillion.


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Mar 9 4 tweets 3 min read
⚡JUST IN:
China February
Annual CPI 0.7% [Est. 0.4% Prev. -0.8%]
Monthly CPI 1.0% [Est. 0.4% Prev. 0.3%]
Annual PPI -2.7% [Est. -2.5% Prev. -2.5%]
Monthly PPI -0.2% [Prev. -0.2%]
*The first rise in consumer prices since August.
#CPI #China #deflation #PPI #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
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CHINA CPI BREAKDOWN:
🔸February annual CPI rebounded sharply, the most since Sep. 2009.
🔸The core CPI rose by 1.2% y/y, vs 0.4% y/y in January, marking the highest increase since February 2022.
🔸Food prices dropped by 0.9% y/y, narrowed by 5 percentage points, due to Chinese New Year effects.
🔸Pork roses by 0.2% y/y, for the first time in 9 months.
🔸Vegetables and aquatic products have risen by 2.9%, and 4.1% from the decline in January.
#PPI #Industry #China #EconTwitter #OOTT #deflation 🇨🇳
Mar 7 5 tweets 1 min read
⚡ China's Jan-Feb trade balance at 890.86 billion yuan:
#Exports +10.3% y/y, Prev. +3.8%
#Imports +6.7% y/y, Prev. +1.6%v
Trade balance at $125.16 bln in USD term
#Exports +7.1% y/y, Est. +1.9%
#Imports +3.5% y/y, Est. +1.5%
1/n #trade #economy 🇨🇳🇺🇸 ⚡China exported and imported 6.61 trillion yuan(+8.7% y/y) of goods in yuan term or $930.86 bln(+5.5% y/y) in USD term in January and February.
2/n #China #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳🇺🇸
Dec 15, 2023 10 tweets 7 min read
🧵10 Key Prediction For Chinese Economy in 2024 by Yuekai Securities #China
1) 2024 GDP growth to be set at around 5%.
Based on the average growth rates calculated from the base year of 2019, the two-year average growth rate for 2021 and 2022 is 5.3%, while the three-year average growth rate is 4.5%. It is projected that the four-year average growth rate for 2023 will be 4.7%. As long as the five-year average growth rate for 2024 sees a slight increase to 4.8%, the year-on-year growth rate for 2024 is expected to reach 5%. Of course, the recovery of the average growth rate relies not only on the inherent economic momentum but also on the support of growth-stabilizing policies.Image 2) The gap between social retail consumption in 2024 and the level of potential trend is expected to narrow once again. There are several factors contributing to this:
1. Accelerated nominal economic growth, which drives an increase in household income.
2. Continued recovery in the average consumer inclination, leading to improved income elasticity of consumption.
3. Ongoing relaxation of supply constraints in offline service industries, providing consumers with more consumption scenarios.
4. Support and stimulation of durable goods consumption through policies such as housing delivery and consumption promotion.
These factors combined are anticipated to contribute to the narrowing of the gap between social retail consumption in 2024 and the potential trend level.
#China #Consumption
Graph: There is currently a significant gap between social retail consumption and the pre-pandemic trend level.Image
Oct 20, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read
🧵Top 10 news about #China this week
About 50 Chinese state-owned companies are trying to bolster investor confidence by rolling out share buybacks or plans by big stockholders to expand their holdings after a series of other measures to prop up the stock market fell short. 1/10 Image China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3,000 threshold on Friday, hitting a new year-to-date low, as foreign investors’ outflow from the A-share market has entered an unprecedented stage.
🧵2/10

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Oct 19, 2023 6 tweets 4 min read
China's benchmark $SHCOMP is now few steps away from the psychological barrier of 3,000, last seen in Nov 2022.

The authorities have implemented at least 18 measures to support the stock market since August. Here's a quick recap.
1️⃣Stamp duty halved.
1/n

Image 2️⃣Securities Handling Fee cuts by three major exchanges.

3️⃣Regulation on reducing shareholdings by controlling holders intensified.
4️⃣Aggregate financing expanded in Aug and Sept.

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Aug 31, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
⚡JUST IN
#China August official #PMI
Manufacturing PMI 49.7 [Est.49.4 Prev.49.3]
Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.0 [Est.51.2 Prev.51.5]
Composite PMI 51.3 [Prev.51.1]
1/ #manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳

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NBS:
🔸Improvements in manufacturing activity in #China continued in August.
🔸New Order Index at 50.2%, up 0.7pps from June, back to the expansion zone as stable production and market demand improved.
2/ #manufacturing
Jun 30, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
⚡JUST IN
#China June official #PMI
Manufacturing PMI 49.0 [Est.49.0 Prev.48.8]
Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.2 [Est.53.5 Prev.54.5]
Composite PMI 52.3 [Prev.52.9]
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳 1/



NBS:
🔸Manufacturing activity in #China showed some improvement in June.
🔸12 industries out of 21 showed expansionary PMI, 4 more than in May.
2/ #manufacturing
Apr 30, 2023 5 tweets 3 min read
⚡JUST IN
#China April official #PMI
Manufacturing PMI 49.2 [Est.51.4 Prev.51.9]
Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.4 [Est.57 Prev.58.2]
Composite PMI 54.4 [Prev.57]
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳 1/ ImageImageImage NBS: The PMI for China's manufacturing sector decreased by 2.7 PPs m/m, falling into the contraction zone after running above 50% for three consecutive months.
However, the financial situation of enterprises has improved, and enterprises are relatively optimistic about future.
2/
Apr 28, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
⚡ CPC held an economy-focused politburo meeting today, stressing new obstacles in economic transformation while demand is still not sufficient.
Boosting demand is key to economic improvement.
#China Key takeaways from the CPC's politburo meeting:
🔸The triple pressures of shrinking have been alleviated, and econ growth beat expectations.
🔸To deepen reform and opening up, combining the effectiveness of policies with the stimulation of vitality among market entities.
2/n
Apr 27, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
GERMANY IN TALKS TO LIMIT THE EXPORT OF CHIP CHEMICALS TO CHINA: BBG The move could affect German companies including Merck, BASF. Chancellor Scholz has been striking a harder line on China.
#Germany #China #chips
Mar 19, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
US FED SAYS FED AND CENTRAL BANKS OF ENGLAND, CANADA, JAPAN, ECB AND SWITZERLAND ANNOUNCE COORDINATED ACTION TO ENHANCE THE PROVISION OF LIQUIDITY VIA THE STANDING U.S. DOLLAR LIQUIDITY SWAP LINES. US FED SAYS FED AND CENTRAL BANKS OF ENGLAND, CANADA, JAPAN, ECB AND SWITZERLAND ANNOUNCE COORDINATED ACTION TO ENHANCE THE PROVISION OF LIQUIDITY VIA THE STANDING U.S. DOLLAR LIQUIDITY SWAP LINES.
Mar 19, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
SWISS FINMA APPROVES MERGER OF UBS, CREDIT SUISSE.
#CreditSuisse #UBS #BankingCrisis FINMA: GOV'T SUPPORT WILL TRIGGER A COMPLETE WRITE-DOWN OF THE NOMINAL VALUE OF ALL AT1 SHARES OF CREDIT SUISSE IN THE AMOUNT OF AROUND CHF 16 BILLION. ON THIS BASIS, IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO CONTINUE ALL THE BUSINESS ACTIVITIES OF BOTH BANKS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS OR INTERRUPTIONS.
Mar 19, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
SNB: UBS TODAY ANNOUNCED THE TAKEOVER OF CREDIT SUISSE. BOTH BANKS HAVE UNRESTRICTED ACCESS TO THE SNB’S EXISTING FACILITIES.
#CreditSuisse #UBS #BankingCrisis SNB: THIS TAKEOVER WAS MADE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE SWISS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, THE SWISS FINANCIAL MARKET SUPERVISORY AUTHORITY FINMA AND THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK.
#CreditSuisse #UBS #BankingCrisis
Mar 17, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
⚡China mulls efforts to maintain supply and price of iron ore: NDRC
#China #IronOre#China state planner says has carried out field research to conduct in-depth research on #IronOre supply and price stability.
Mar 17, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
JUST IN:
#CHINA CENTRAL BANK TO CUT RRR BY 25 BPS FROM MARCH 27.
$CNH $CNY #CHINA CENTRAL BANK PBOC REITERATES PRUDENT, FORCEFUL MONETARY POLICY.
$CNH $CNY
Mar 5, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
🇨🇳Key takeaways of 2023 #China Government Work Report:
🔸GDP growth target at around 5%
🔸CPI growth target at about 3% unchanged
🔸Budget deficit at 3% of GDP vs 2.8% 2022
🔸Add 12 million urban jobs in 2023 vs 11 mln 2022.
🔸Plans 3.8 tln yuan special gov bond sales vs 3.65
1/n
🇨🇳Key takeaways of 2023 #China Government Work Report:
🔸Focus on expanding domestic demand, consumption
🔸More proactive fiscal policy
🔸Money supply growth to match nomical GDP growth
🔸Keep yuan exchange basically stableshore
🔸Shore up B/S of property companies
2/n
Mar 3, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
JUST IN:
Saudi Arabia, UAE Clash Over Oil, Yemen Amid Growing Rift: WSJ Sources
#OOTT Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Skipped Abu Dhabi Summit in January to Snub Emiratis: WSJ Sources
#OOTT #OPEC
Mar 3, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
China state planner NDRC says experts suggest strengthening regulation and supervision of iron ore market to curb unreasonable price rises.
#China #IronOre Experts suggest that iron ore trading enterprises and steel enterprises should comprehensively and rationally view current supply and demand situation in iron ore market and not follow trend of speculation: NDRC
#China #IronOre
Feb 23, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
#Alibaba:
3Q Rev. 247.76b Yuan, Est. 245.87b Yuan;
3Q Adj Ebitda 59.16b Yuan, Est. 53.56b Yuan;
3Q Cloud Rev. 20.18b Yuan, Est. 21.34b Yuan;
3Q Adj Earnings Per Ads 19.26 Yuan, Est. 16.57 Yuan.
$BABA US-listed #Alibaba shares rise 4.2% in premarket session. $BABA
Feb 23, 2023 5 tweets 4 min read
China offers financial support to Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone in Qianhai.
#China #HongKong #Macau China central bank says to facilitate credit financing for Hong Kong residents and cross-border investment and financing for Hong Kong enterprises.
#China #HongKong #Macau