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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
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Feb 20 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/3
Crypto twitter is standing on their head to convince (themselves?) that the correlation between legacy markets and BTC is broken.

Instead, as these two charts shows, the correlation has INCREASED to a new all-time high (over the last 2-months, or 8-weeks).
2/3
And legacy market people show restrain from gloating. As the title of one chart above asks, is BTC a 24/7 VIX? (h/t @jdorman81)

I think it is and the BTC sell-off this weekend, IF IT HOLDS UNTIL LEGACY MARKETS REOPEN, suggests more legacy markets pain coming.
3/3
This is the consequence of institutional adoption of crypto.

Bluntly, tradfi is a bunch of degens wanting number go up and not (yet) exploring DeFi or other aspects of a new financial system.

For the foreseeable future, crypto/BTC is the extreme of the legacy risk curve.
Ben explains what I show
This is Wall Street (TradFi) … and this is the problem

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Feb 20
1/7
A 🧵on the new Goldman's Fed call of "nine for nine"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/7
First, "nine for nine" is not really that far from what is priced in.

As of Friday's close, the market was pricing in "eight for nine."
3/7
From Jun-04 to Jul-06 the Fed hiked rates 17 times in 17 meetings, from 1.0% to 5.5%. So, 9 for 9 is not unprecedented.

When the Fed was done in 2006, the yield curve inverted, housing prices peaked 2-months later (Case Schiller) and following next year was the GFC.
Read 7 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Feb 15
1/4
washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022…
2/4 Image
3/4
 Why do Democrats, who like taxes and want to less fossil fuel consumption to save the planet, want to cut gas taxes?

I can answer it with two charts. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Feb 11
1/4
This morning the UM released monthly survey of consumers. To put it bluntly, this was not a good report.

Current level of consumer confidence is below the levels seen in April 2020 when the world was locked down. Its current reading is near levels associated with the GFC.
2/4
Half the country thinks their standard of living is going to fall because of inflation, as explained here.

sca.isr.umich.edu
3/4
This puts the Fed in an impossible position.

* Help the half that sees inflation hurting them by aggressively hiking rates.

* Help those with incomes > $100K by not hiking aggressively in order to prop up stock prices.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Feb 11
1/6
A 🧵 about NYC

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

“Let this ridership record be a clear signal – New York is coming out of the Omicron surge and we have numbers to prove it,” Governor Kathy Hochul said in a statement Wednesday.
2/6
Subway ridership did make a new one-day post-pandemic peak on Tuesday. But day-to-day subway ridership fluctuates based on the day of the week and weather. So while Tuesday was a record over 3 million, there have been several 2.9 million days in recent weeks.
3/6
Taking a step back, the chart below shows a rolling 7-day average of the three most used ways people commute in New York, driving (bridge and tunnel usage), buses and subway. It is shown as a percentage of the average usage pre-pandemic.
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Jan 21
1/7
I typically do not get into the weeds with short term outlooks. But in this 🧵I will make an exception.

I see the SPX at an inflection point, right here. If the trend is still up; the decline stops NOW.

If not, the next break marks a full-blown bear market.
2/7
In the last 48-hours, we are finally starting to see a bond "risk-off" rally.

Since Wednesday peak at 1.90%, the 10-year yield is down 16 basis points (chart).

The 2-year (not shown) traded down less, just 6 bps and the yield curve is flattening again, back to 74 bps.
3/7
I take this as a signal that now the bond market is getting "worried" about the stock market, so a risk-off bond rally is underway.

So, we have arrived at an inflection point, which coincides with the SPX breaking the 200d MA for the first time in 409 days
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
Jan 21
1/3
Powell might not be chairman in 2 weeks, and it will not matter.

Sherrod Brown (D, OH), the head of the Senate finance committee, said the committee will most likely vote on the Powell/Brainard nominations in early Feb.
No date on the full Senate floor confirmation vote.
2/3
Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends January 31. His term as a "regular" Fed governor expires in 2028.

(The Fed chairman is also a "regular" Fed Governor, think of them as two separate things)
3/3
Brown told the press yesterday it doesn't matter that Powell technically expires as Chairman on the 31st.

All parties will probably agree to treat him as the Fed Chairman, and everything continues as is.

Your dysfunctional Government making things up.

@DiMartinoBooth
Read 7 tweets

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