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Mar 4 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The time has come for EU defense. New from me and @benjaminhaddad calling on the EU to borrow 400m euros, a NextGenEU II. If the EU can borrow for econ recovery, it can borrow for defense. 1/
politico.eu/article/ukrain…
The EU funds could be used to: 1. Fill key NATO capability gaps, making EU "complimentary" of NATO. 2. Acquire high-end systems for the entire Union -enablers, like fleets of air-transport/tankers, ISR-UAVs. And air and missile defense systems. 3. The EU...2/
should invest in modernizing the militaries of former Warsaw Pact stats that are now frontline states. Many still operate aging Soviet equipment.

The EU, with its huge financial heft, can close gaps in Euro defense that other MS and NATO can't do.
In first tweet... meant billion... not million!

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Max Bergmann Profile picture
Mar 5
🚨Here. We. Go! What me and @benjaminhaddad proposed, a NextGenEU II is on the table. Biden admin must CLEARLY voice its support for this.

I fear US officials don't appreciate what a historic opportunity this is. This is a once in a generation moment. 🧵 politico.eu/article/ukrain…
The problem outlined by @HalBrands of US military overstretch - split b/w Euro and Asian theaters - w/d be resolved by this EU initiative; paired w/ increases in German defense spending. Europe would be mobilizing to become a legit global military power. foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
Critically, it is not that this would lead to a division of labor - yes Euros focus more on Russia, us on Asia. But the EU, w/ econ as big as US and China, has clear interests in Asia as well. Legit Euro mil assets c/d also deploy to Asia if needed.
Read 10 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Feb 27
We are witnessing the emergence of a global power in this crisis: the European Union. I was confident that a Russian invasion w/d be a shock to Europe and lead to a robust response. But never w/d I have predicted the announcements from Germany, EU, and others. Truly stunning. 1/
In a blink of an eye Germany will spend 100bn euros on defense. To put this in context their entire defense budget is 53bn euros. Germany, Sweden, and the EU are sending lethal asst. This will dramatically grow EU's hard power capabilities. 2/
The EU was already an economic power. But it is showing its geopolitical resolve w/ sanctions. Europe will likely suffer a hit in the tens of billions of loss of economic activity. Much more so than the US. But the EU is leaning in. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Feb 18
This is a very insightful and thoughtful thread. Let me offer one point. I think the Russia analyst community never really grappled with the significance of Russian interference in the US election. It was a clear sign Russia was content w/ a new Cold war. Thread. 1/
It was super easy to lose the thread on what actually happened in 2016. Not just b/c it became a huge US political scandal but it also descended into a tedious legal affair. FP analysts also (understandably) wanted to stay out of that morass and focused more on disinfo. 2/
But Russia's interference was incredibly reckless. And said a lot about Putin and Russia's outlook. What they did was not small. It was blunt and effective. They hacked a US political party and leaked the contents - twice! A DNC chair resigned and dominated the Oct news cycle. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Feb 11
What should be clear to everyone is that Russia has rejected diplomacy. They have now dismissed countless efforts to engage them on actual substance - mil exercises, conventional forces, deployment of mil assets. They've simply rejected talks. 1/
Instead, they're making farcical demands, essentially asking the US and Europe to control-alt-delete the last 25 yrs and go back to Soviet times when they ran Eastern Europe. Sorry, no. But they know that's not happening! All the huffing and puffing about NATO is just pretext. 2/
Putin lost Ukraine on HIS watch. And he is determined to bring it back under the Kremlin's sphere. And he's out of options. Corruption/influence ops/winning elections (ala Yanukovych) no longer work. Zelensky arrested Putin's man in Ukraine and seizing Crimea/Donbas shifted...3/
Read 4 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Dec 21, 2021
If Russia invades, there will be efforts to blame the US for somehow triggering the Kremlin. See the amount of attention given to Javelin (it's just a fancy RPG people!) or NATO expansion 20 yrs ago! No. The cause is that Putin lost Ukraine and he can't deal with that. 1/
Putin's strategy to control Ukraine hasn't worked. After Crimea/Donbas, killing of Ukrainian forces, etc., Ukrainians quite reasonably want little to do w/ Moscow. They want to be European (as do many Russians). Neither grayzone efforts nor Minsk has worked. 2/
To put it bluntly, Ukraine wants out of this abusive relationship. US/EU/NATO offered a lot of very conditional support, careful not to poke abusive/explosive Kremlin. So blaming aid for somehow triggering Russia means advocating doing nothing, staying out of it. But...3/
Read 4 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Sep 18, 2021
A few thoughts on @SangerNYT rundown.

1. France is right to be pissed. It's like they were left at the alter and found out via text. 2. But AUKSUS makes more strategic sense for Australia. No good way to end it w/ France. 3. US is stuck in the 90s..1/
nytimes.com/2021/09/17/us/…
on Europe. The US pivoted to Asia, yet for Europe we pretend like its still the 90s, when we were hyper-engaged and determined to call the shots. We pretend we haven't pivoted when it is clear we have! Now we want Europe to just follow and get in line but w/o really engaging.
We pay little attention. We don't really track EU developments, and we still treat the EU as if its some nascent multilat org just like we did in the 90s. But it's not the 90s! The EU is a thing. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Read 11 tweets

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