Hvad betyder konflikten med Rusland for danskernes vurdering af hvem, der er en dygtig politiker?

I 2015 undersøgte vi lige præcist dét spørgsmål.

Vores forskning viser, at borgerne efterspørge nye, dominerende sider af politikerne - men kun så længe striden står på.

🧵(1/11)
Mød Christian Mortensen. En fiktiv folketingspolitiker, som 1524 repræsentative danskere blev præsenteret for.

Deltagerne mødte CM i én af to udgaver. For hver deltager var det tilfældigt, hvilken udgave, som de mødte. Èn var venlig. Èn anden knap så venlig. (2/11)
Her er det, som vi kalder den ikke-dominerende personlighed. Denne CM er en samarbejdende type, som sætter pris på andre.

(3/11)
Her det det, som vi kalder den dominerende personlighed. Denne CM er fokuseret på sig selv og er mere tilbøjelig til at sætte hårdt mod hårdt.

(4/11)
I den indledende beskrivelse blev CM ikke beskrevet som politikere. Det kom senere i undersøgelsen. Og der spurgte vi så, hvor kompetent som politiker, deltagerne opfattede CM. Vi spurgte flere gange. 2. gang var en uge efter og 3. gang en måned efter. (5/11)
Ikke overraskende fandt vi, at folk ikke kan lide en dominerende type - heller ikke som politiker. Mere interessante er det, at folk stadig reagerer negativt på den dominerende CM en måned senere, trods at folk alene præsenteres for hans billede. First impressions last. (6/11)
Og så kommer vi til Rusland. For én gruppe blev i Runde 2 præsenteret for et scenarie med en strid mellem DK og Rusland. Ikke om Ukraine, men om Arktis. 👇

(7/11)
I lyset af russisk aggression, så ændrer folks holdninger sig til CM markant. Pludselig opfatter folk den dominerende CM som *mere* kompetent end den ikke-dominerende CM. Men da konflikten er forsvundet i Runde 3, så forsvinder præferencen for dominans igen. (8/11)
Undersøgelsen viser altså

...at politikeres personlighed betyder noget

...at folk gemmer deres indtryk af politikeres personlighed i deres langtidshukommelse

...og at vi foretrækker mere dominerende politikere, når vi trues af et aggressivt Rusland.

(9/11)
I en opfølgende undersøgelse viste vi, at vælgere i konfliktsituationer faktisk er villige til at ofre indhold i bytte for den rette personlighed.

De tager gerne en dominerende politikere, selv hvis de er mindre enige med ham.

(10/11)
Det betyder, at Putins invasion i Ukraine kan flytte stemmer i Danmark - i hvert fald hvis truslen fortsætter.

Artiklen findes her og er skrevet sammen med @LasseLaustsen: doi.org/10.1111/ajps.1…

(11/11)

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More from @M_B_Petersen

Mar 5
Are people who moralize facts, data & analytical thinking less likely to share false information?

No, in fact, they are *more* likely to do so.

New preprint with @A_Marie_sci: osf.io/k7u68/

A 🧵 on our counterintuitive finding, why it occurs & why it matters (1/10)
Enter any conspiracy environment. All the focus is on facts, evidence & data. The rest of us are sheep. They are - in their own views - free-thinkers.

Here are a few studies:

doi.org/10.1177/174997…
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
(2/10)
Essentially, conspiracy theorists are engaging in moral grandstanding when it comes to rationality. Moral grandstanding has been linked to status motivations (journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…), which again predict the sharing of false, hostile rumors (psyarxiv.com/6m4ts/). (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Mar 3
Bans now limit Western access to Putin's propaganda.

Most of us have no interest in propaganda. But there is reason to pause.

Not only are bans out of sync with the science of misinformation. They may also be detrimental to our fight for democracy.

An evidence-based 🧵 (1/16)
Since the 2016 US presidential election a myth has been created: People easily fall prey to misinformation.

Myth-busting is harder than myth-creation.

But the science is now clear, as this review shows: doi.org/10.1017/S13582…

Propaganda have little effects (2/16)
A couple of examples may suffice.

A study did a meta-analysis of 40 studies on campaign effects on candidate preferences in the US and conclude that "the best estimate of the effects...is zero": doi.org/10.1017/S00030…
(3/16)
Read 16 tweets
Mar 1
Hvor mange har de seneste dage stillet sig selv spørgsmålet: Ville jeg gribe til våben?

I 2016 stillede vi faktisk 1012 danskere det spørgsmål bl.a. i lyset af, at "Rusland opfører sig mere og mere aggressivt".

Her er hvad de svarede. 👇

🧵 (1/6)
Efter introen, der beskrev en mere ustabil verden med bl.a. et mere aggressivt Rusland, blev det repræsentative udsnit af danskere præsenteret for en række scenarier, herunder dette 👇 (2/6)
Derefter spurgte vi, om deltagerne forestillede sig, at de ville protestere mod regimet, hjælpe modstandsfolk, deltage i modstandskampen og bruge vold.

31 % forestiller sig, at de "ville bruge fysisk vold for at fremme modstandsbevægelsens mål". (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Mar 1
I advised the Danish government on behavioral science during the pandemic.

In APS Observer, I wrote my advice on how to give advice when your discipline is (A) obviously important but (B) face discussions about replication: psychologicalscience.org/observer/scien…

I outline 3 lessons.

🧵(1/4)
1. Focus on decision-makers’ mental models.

Don't push single studies. Focus on broader models of behavior & help decision-makers *think* in the right way (e.g., "prioritize trust-building"). This facilitates better decisions even when you aren't there.

(2/4)
2. Focus on blind spots.

In a pandemic, there are many health advisors but few behavioral advisors.

You are your field's representative & should raise the problems & trade-offs that outsiders don't see (e.g., the perils of polarization & perceived control loss)

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
The rage & fear you feel after the Russian invasion are ancient parts of your mind preparing - like clockwork - for a world of conflict.

After 10 years of research in the lab & field, it is surreal to feel it unfold in my own mind

A 🧵 on what happens & with what effects (1/16)
I lived during the Cold War but never felt its threat. Many Westerns have never experienced anything remotely like war.

But you are more than your experiences. Your mind was designed by natural selection and the genes you carry are adapted to a different world. (2/16)
That world included violent, group-based conflict. Scholars disagree on the details of the prehistory of war. But group conflict is universal, ancient & significant enough that it may have shaped our basic psychology (doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a…) (3/16)
Read 16 tweets
Feb 26
Individuals who fight in armed conflict tend to be anti-democratic.

With one exception: Violent resistance in defence of democracy.

🧵 on our research on the psychology of violence & why the ultimate defense of democracy requires understanding anti-democratic impulses. (1/14)
Democracy is the principled recognition of equality in power. Autocracy is the opposite.

Psychologically, an orientation to autocracy draws its strength from so-called dominance motivations (doi.org/10.1177/095679…). (2/14)
All humans seek status. But paths differ (doi.org/10.1037/a00303…). *Prestige* is status in exchange for problem-solving. *Dominance* is the desire to acquire status from fear via intimidation & aggression.

In the game of status, dominance is the strategy of the predator. (3/14)
Read 14 tweets

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