THREAD @NATO isn't able to prevent "bigger war" by denying #NoFlyZoneOverUkraine: 1) Even if NATO wants no direct war with #Russia, it will start once Putin decides about that.
2)This war isn't just btw UA & RU. It is already all-European one after Russia seized ☢️power plants
3) NATO is scared with actually meeting its direct obligations: to defend and to fight. It wants to leave UA alone with Putin, though supplying UA with weapons, but giving no extraordinary support like closed sky.
4) UA Army destroyed myth of undefeated RU army. But credibility of NATO is also under the question now, if not for UA, than for it's member states.
5) Russia is stopped only by force. Strong and powerful retaliatory measures. If NATO doesn't act like this, Putin will continue. Seeing how RU elites, economy and RU army is loosing, NATO has to make the last shot
6) Some NATO MS can think, war will be long one, part of UA can be occupied, need for serious extra support to UA will decrease. But one factor isn't considered. UA resistance. Incredible resistance movement excludes protracted conflict with occupation.
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On 22.02 RU used reactive system of volley fire “Grad” to shell residential areas in Schastya,Muratove, Novotoshkivka and oth.(Luhansk obl.). People sat in shelters. Local authorities consider evacuation if shelling aren’t stopped. Why LPR hit Schastya? ⬇️in a 🧵
Schastya is situated exactly on a division line. It is needed for RU to proceed further on UA-controlled part of Luhansk region. Once RU crosses the river, it simply cuts from external world Stanytsya Luhanska district with population not less than 37 000 people.
Without capture of Schastya Russia won’t be able to move on the North part of oblast. RU idea seems to be: to burn town/villages with valley fire and artillery, make people escape/be evacuated, continue just with UA militaries, whose defense position are rather strong there.
Schastya is again under heaviest artillery shelling. Biggest thermoelectric power station was shelled, damaged. At least 3 transformers are burning. Residential areas are also shelled. More photos in comments. #ukraine#RussiaInvadedUkraine
Putin has already ordered his Ministry for defense to guarantee peace in so-called “republics” with Russian Army. Recognized occupation with ever high chances for full-fledged offensive operation at least towards UA-controlled Donbas
In fact, Russia openly invades Ukraine's Donbas with its troops even before RU signs treaties with so called "L/DPR" about mutual and defense support to them.
Reaction from the West is absolutely inadequate. Sanctions from US are ridiculous (any from killing package), from EU will be even softer. RU “peacekeepers”, openly occupying Donbas, is not sufficient reason to introduce serious sanctions. Weak, treacherous position of the West.
Putin will recognize DPR/LPR as independent states.Whole territory of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts should belong to these puppet “states”. It means:1)RU will attack UA-controlled part of Donbas to “liberate”it; 2)RU withdraw from Minsk accords; 3)RU “legitimizes” it’s army there🧵
RU army can be used in 2 scenarios than: 1)attack for occupation of new areas in UA-controlled Donbas; 2) as peace building mission together with RU-controlled military union CSTO. 2d scenario can be both separately, or coming after offensive operation
Putin still can “give some time to the West” before his decision, as Lavrov mentioned. Though, 1-3 days change nothing in terms of recognition.Meeting with Biden and EU re new security architecture still can happen.West will try to convince RU not to go further.