No matter what kind of fuel conservation techniques they engaged in. The 1st 17km or so of that 64 km Russian Army column is out of fuel.
They planned a 3-day operation which is in its 8th day.
And given the temperatures and radio use, those vehicles have dead batteries. 3/
This is why that Russian 41st CAA general was killed.
He showed up at the head of the column to unscrew the logistical mess, screaming at people and waving his arms in the air in visual range of a Ukrainian Army Sniper. 4/
The head of this 64km column ain't going anywhere. With or without fuel. The Russians can get neither fuel trucks nor wreckers there.
And this "drop dead effect" is proceeding along the column from south to north. The ONLY way that column will move at all is backwards first 6/
This is assuming it moves at all before the Ukrainians destroy it.
The front and middle of the column showed up with food, fuel & ammo for 3-days, & we are 8-days into the war.
The column is packed so tight that you can only refuel about 100-200 meters of column at a time
7/
via a--holes & elbow by jerry cans. Then carefully back out those refueled trucks in order to get to the next 100 meters with the refueling truck and jerry cans.
It would take a week a month from now, when the ground dries, to unf--k this mess. 8/
The Russian Army will not be able to move trucks off road before then.
The Russians have formed the world's longest POW camp. And the Ukrainians don't have to feed it.
There simply hasn't been anything like this in warfare since the Anglo-American Anzio beachhead in 1944.
11/
The Russian troops in the 40-50 km of the traffic jam closest to Kyiv will run out of food before the jam can be cleared to them.
They'll have to abandon their vehicles and walk north just to get food.
12/
The reason the Russian column got to be so long was due to Russian Army officers “fulfilling the plan”.
They might be shot by the chain of command for disobeying orders to advance into the traffic jam, but won’t be if they obey orders to fulfill the plan.
13/
I'm not saying Ukraine will win or even that Ukraine can prevent Kyiv from being encircled.
I am saying the Russian Army troops in the first 50 kilometers of that 64 km column will have nothing to do with it.
14/End
PS.
The Ukrainians really do want to motti that column.
And the Ukrainians do have the means to hit the fuel trucks at the North end of the Kyiv column to prevent its unwinding before the mud season is over.
Alright, it is time to take off my "Mud & Truck Maintenance" ball cap & put on my "Old Crow" Bennie with rotating radar aerial and evaluate for you this Ukrainian missile engagement of a Russian Air Force Hind Helicopter. 1/
Second, the Ukrainian shoulder fired surface to air missile operator had balls of steel.
That was a classic "Down the Throat" missile/torpedo engagement where the Ukrainian waited until the Hind was to close & committed to hit a flare launch button.
This thread is going to discuss what the loss by capture of Russian Army Pantsyr S1/S2 / SA-22 (pictured below), 2S6 Tunguska / SA-19, Osa AKM / SA-8B, Tor M2 / SA-15, Strela 10 / SA-13 means for the Russian invasion of Ukraine going forward. Its bad🧵 1/
...for the Russians and particularly the Russian Air Force.
BTW, that list of captured Russian Army short range air defense (SHORAD) gear comes from this link to all the documented equipment losses in the war to date. 2/ oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
This is a Russian Army TOR M2 surface-to-air missile complex that was captured intact by Ukrainian farmers.
You can be certain that the Ukrainian SF have showed up with technical experts to rape it's technical information for the UAF.
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵
1/
For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.
Short form: Military trucks need to be...
2/
...turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.
In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system.