Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 4 17 tweets 6 min read
Lady's and Gentlemen, boys & girls, it is time saddle up for another installment of the "Mud and Truck Maintenance in Ukraine" feed.

And this one will be a doozy, because we are talking about Russian truck refueling in the 64km column north of Kyiv. 🧵

1/
I am going to expand on this earlier tweet on the satellite photo montage.

The Rasputitsa, bad tire maintenance, vehicle overcrowding, and lack of fuel have isolated most of this Russian Army column from its rear.

2/
No matter what kind of fuel conservation techniques they engaged in. The 1st 17km or so of that 64 km Russian Army column is out of fuel.

They planned a 3-day operation which is in its 8th day.

And given the temperatures and radio use, those vehicles have dead batteries.
3/
This is why that Russian 41st CAA general was killed.

He showed up at the head of the column to unscrew the logistical mess, screaming at people and waving his arms in the air in visual range of a Ukrainian Army Sniper.
4/
As for why the Ukrainians haven't rolled up those Russian troops in a 'motti' yet. They were busy.

The Russian Hostomel airbase occupation force had to be annihilated to keep fuel from being airlifted in by helicopter.
5/
The head of this 64km column ain't going anywhere. With or without fuel. The Russians can get neither fuel trucks nor wreckers there.

And this "drop dead effect" is proceeding along the column from south to north. The ONLY way that column will move at all is backwards first
6/
This is assuming it moves at all before the Ukrainians destroy it.

The front and middle of the column showed up with food, fuel & ammo for 3-days, & we are 8-days into the war.

The column is packed so tight that you can only refuel about 100-200 meters of column at a time
7/
via a--holes & elbow by jerry cans. Then carefully back out those refueled trucks in order to get to the next 100 meters with the refueling truck and jerry cans.

It would take a week a month from now, when the ground dries, to unf--k this mess.
8/
The Russian Army will not be able to move trucks off road before then.

9/
Nor in a lot of cases will the Russian Army tanks in that column be able to move off road.


10/
The Russians have formed the world's longest POW camp. And the Ukrainians don't have to feed it.

There simply hasn't been anything like this in warfare since the Anglo-American Anzio beachhead in 1944.

11/
The Russian troops in the 40-50 km of the traffic jam closest to Kyiv will run out of food before the jam can be cleared to them.

They'll have to abandon their vehicles and walk north just to get food.

12/
The reason the Russian column got to be so long was due to Russian Army officers “fulfilling the plan”.

They might be shot by the chain of command for disobeying orders to advance into the traffic jam, but won’t be if they obey orders to fulfill the plan.

13/
I'm not saying Ukraine will win or even that Ukraine can prevent Kyiv from being encircled.

I am saying the Russian Army troops in the first 50 kilometers of that 64 km column will have nothing to do with it.

14/End
PS.

The Ukrainians really do want to motti that column.

PPS

And the Ukrainians do have the means to hit the fuel trucks at the North end of the Kyiv column to prevent its unwinding before the mud season is over.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 5
Alright, it is time to take off my "Mud & Truck Maintenance" ball cap & put on my "Old Crow" Bennie with rotating radar aerial and evaluate for you this Ukrainian missile engagement of a Russian Air Force Hind Helicopter.
1/
First, that video footage was taken from a Ukrainian commercial multi-copter drone.

So much for Russian drone jamming electronic warfare.

If it is not here. There isn't much Russian EW available in Ukraine, period.

bestreviews.com/electronics/dr…
2/
Second, the Ukrainian shoulder fired surface to air missile operator had balls of steel.

That was a classic "Down the Throat" missile/torpedo engagement where the Ukrainian waited until the Hind was to close & committed to hit a flare launch button.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_the_…
3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 5
A quick "Mud & Truck Maintenance" infrastructure observation here.

I want people to look closely at these photos _NOT_ at the destroyed tank, but the road under it.

That road will fall apart under the weight of heavily loaded supply trucks after that tank is removed.
1/
There have been hundreds of such explosively destroyed & burned out fighting vehicles on the roads to the Ukrainian cities Russia wants to conquer.

As Ukrainian Territorials destroy more of the 'Deadline Daveski" Russian AFV's during "Road Burning Duty" sweeps.
2/
More and more road bed is going to be structurally destroyed by intense, hours long, heat of ammunition cook off.

This is the attrition of war hitting Ukrainian roads that the road bound due to the Raputisa & bad tire maintenance Russian trucks have to use.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 3
This thread is going to discuss what the loss by capture of Russian Army Pantsyr S1/S2 / SA-22 (pictured below), 2S6 Tunguska / SA-19, Osa AKM / SA-8B, Tor M2 / SA-15, Strela 10 / SA-13 means for the Russian invasion of Ukraine going forward. Its bad🧵
1/
...for the Russians and particularly the Russian Air Force.

BTW, that list of captured Russian Army short range air defense (SHORAD) gear comes from this link to all the documented equipment losses in the war to date.
2/
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
This is a Russian Army TOR M2 surface-to-air missile complex that was captured intact by Ukrainian farmers.

You can be certain that the Ukrainian SF have showed up with technical experts to rape it's technical information for the UAF.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Mar 2
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

1/ Image
For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.

Short form: Military trucks need to be...

2/ Image
...turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.

In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system.

CTIS Controller & CTIS diagram👇👇

3/ ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Feb 28
This Jan 2022 post makes clear the unreality of the Biden Adm. had in trying to get Putin on-side versus China was bloody obvious to the Non-Expert.

All you had to do was follow Phillip Karber's lectures on the Donbas war to see Putin was an irredentist Russian nationalist
1/
...in exactly the same way that Adolph Hitler was an irredentist German Nationalist.

Right down to Putin playing "Pan-slavism" in Ukraine exactly the way Hitler did the "German Volk" in Czechoslovakia.

The difference being the Ukrainians people fought tooth and nail...
2/
...despite their government, while Czechoslovakian elites & people did not.

What really gauls me is the fact that German SPD and American Democratic legislators bought this Russian irredentist bulls--t and took Russian money.

I've ranted enough about the SPD & Gazprom.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 28
People do not understand the implications of 55 "NATO surplus" Mig-29's arriving in Ukraine immediately mean.

The UAF cannot assimilate & use those Mig-29's that quickly without pilots and ground crew to go with them.

Unless this is NATO's version of Chennault's Flying Tigers.
Pres. Zelensky already has a program for immediately inducting any foreign soldier who wishes to fight for Ukraine.

You might have serving Polish, Slovakian and Bulgarian MiG drivers in the mix along with their ground crew.

2/
These MIG-29's have link 16 to listen to NATO E-3D.

Any Russian or Belarus aircraft over 50 meters altitude w/in 300 km of NATO borders is now a target.
3/
Read 8 tweets

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