Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 5 9 tweets 2 min read
A quick "Mud & Truck Maintenance" infrastructure observation here.

I want people to look closely at these photos _NOT_ at the destroyed tank, but the road under it.

That road will fall apart under the weight of heavily loaded supply trucks after that tank is removed.
1/
There have been hundreds of such explosively destroyed & burned out fighting vehicles on the roads to the Ukrainian cities Russia wants to conquer.

As Ukrainian Territorials destroy more of the 'Deadline Daveski" Russian AFV's during "Road Burning Duty" sweeps.
2/
More and more road bed is going to be structurally destroyed by intense, hours long, heat of ammunition cook off.

This is the attrition of war hitting Ukrainian roads that the road bound due to the Raputisa & bad tire maintenance Russian trucks have to use.
3/
One of the things that I was looking for in the build up of Russian forces around Ukraine was the stockpiles of sand, gravel and pre-made concrete structures to extensive road repair & maintenance required for extended mechanized combat operations.

There wasn't any.

4/
Captured Russian Army documents make clear Putin's generals planned a three day "special operation" so they did not lay on the civil engineering supplies to support the road maintenance needed for artillery-heavy mechanized combat operations.
5/
The @GirkinGirkin videos of the Russian Army 2nd strategic echelon movements that Putin's generals didn't think they would need are _STILL_ not showing any of the civil engineering supplies necessary for the war they have.
6/
We should be seeing Russian civilian dump trucks filled with road building materials, flatbed semi-tractor trailers with pre-made culverts and excavators being staged in large numbers.

There just aren't any.

7/
This strongly suggest to me that Putin's generals are on a very short economic clock regards how long Russia can fund combat operations

Think six to 10 weeks of high intensity mechanized combat operations.

Being on "sand & gravel watch" was not on my bingo card for 2022.
8/
Yet here we are.

9/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 5
Alright, it is time to take off my "Mud & Truck Maintenance" ball cap & put on my "Old Crow" Bennie with rotating radar aerial and evaluate for you this Ukrainian missile engagement of a Russian Air Force Hind Helicopter.
1/
First, that video footage was taken from a Ukrainian commercial multi-copter drone.

So much for Russian drone jamming electronic warfare.

If it is not here. There isn't much Russian EW available in Ukraine, period.

bestreviews.com/electronics/dr…
2/
Second, the Ukrainian shoulder fired surface to air missile operator had balls of steel.

That was a classic "Down the Throat" missile/torpedo engagement where the Ukrainian waited until the Hind was to close & committed to hit a flare launch button.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_the_…
3/
Read 13 tweets
Mar 4
Lady's and Gentlemen, boys & girls, it is time saddle up for another installment of the "Mud and Truck Maintenance in Ukraine" feed.

And this one will be a doozy, because we are talking about Russian truck refueling in the 64km column north of Kyiv. 🧵

1/
I am going to expand on this earlier tweet on the satellite photo montage.

The Rasputitsa, bad tire maintenance, vehicle overcrowding, and lack of fuel have isolated most of this Russian Army column from its rear.

2/
No matter what kind of fuel conservation techniques they engaged in. The 1st 17km or so of that 64 km Russian Army column is out of fuel.

They planned a 3-day operation which is in its 8th day.

And given the temperatures and radio use, those vehicles have dead batteries.
3/
Read 17 tweets
Mar 3
This thread is going to discuss what the loss by capture of Russian Army Pantsyr S1/S2 / SA-22 (pictured below), 2S6 Tunguska / SA-19, Osa AKM / SA-8B, Tor M2 / SA-15, Strela 10 / SA-13 means for the Russian invasion of Ukraine going forward. Its bad🧵
1/
...for the Russians and particularly the Russian Air Force.

BTW, that list of captured Russian Army short range air defense (SHORAD) gear comes from this link to all the documented equipment losses in the war to date.
2/
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…
This is a Russian Army TOR M2 surface-to-air missile complex that was captured intact by Ukrainian farmers.

You can be certain that the Ukrainian SF have showed up with technical experts to rape it's technical information for the UAF.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Mar 2
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵

1/ Image
For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army's FMTV "vehicle exercise program" at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990's to the mid-2000's Then we got more new guys.

Short form: Military trucks need to be...

2/ Image
...turned over and moved once a month for preventative maintenance reasons.

In particular you want to exercise the central tire air inflation system (CTIS) to see if lines have leaks or had insect/vermin nests blocking the system.

CTIS Controller & CTIS diagram👇👇

3/ ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Feb 28
This Jan 2022 post makes clear the unreality of the Biden Adm. had in trying to get Putin on-side versus China was bloody obvious to the Non-Expert.

All you had to do was follow Phillip Karber's lectures on the Donbas war to see Putin was an irredentist Russian nationalist
1/
...in exactly the same way that Adolph Hitler was an irredentist German Nationalist.

Right down to Putin playing "Pan-slavism" in Ukraine exactly the way Hitler did the "German Volk" in Czechoslovakia.

The difference being the Ukrainians people fought tooth and nail...
2/
...despite their government, while Czechoslovakian elites & people did not.

What really gauls me is the fact that German SPD and American Democratic legislators bought this Russian irredentist bulls--t and took Russian money.

I've ranted enough about the SPD & Gazprom.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 28
People do not understand the implications of 55 "NATO surplus" Mig-29's arriving in Ukraine immediately mean.

The UAF cannot assimilate & use those Mig-29's that quickly without pilots and ground crew to go with them.

Unless this is NATO's version of Chennault's Flying Tigers.
Pres. Zelensky already has a program for immediately inducting any foreign soldier who wishes to fight for Ukraine.

You might have serving Polish, Slovakian and Bulgarian MiG drivers in the mix along with their ground crew.

2/
These MIG-29's have link 16 to listen to NATO E-3D.

Any Russian or Belarus aircraft over 50 meters altitude w/in 300 km of NATO borders is now a target.
3/
Read 8 tweets

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