Thread by @MMazarr

I get the signaling value of more defense $. But w/ (1) Russia possibly facing an extended COIN war, (2) having suffered significant losses, (3) showing much less capacity for large scale warfare than we assumed, and (4) EU bolstering its own budgets ...
breakingdefense.com/2022/03/no-dou…

2/ ... it's hard to see the argument that the Russian threat to Europe is operationally *greater* than before in a way that demands a bigger budget. If anything, now and for several years, the objective Russian operational threat is likely to decline

3/ The Russian military on display seems less capable of rushing through the Baltics, or Poland, than we thought. @KofmanMichael and others have rightly warned about tilting too far in the other direction. But this isn't an urgent crisis of mil. power
warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin…

4/ Some will say, Putin isn't rational, he'll go on a surge of aggression unrestrained by such concerns. That is definitely a risk. And if it is, a 10+% increase in US defense spending is entirely pointless, because its effect will get swept aside by his wishful thinking

5/ US also has plenty of heavy forces that can be sent to Europe to bolster deterrence w/o increase in budget. Problem for US = CONUS forces likely ain't getting to any distant fight in time. So move a few forward into non-provocative NATO locations
warontherocks.com/2020/04/toward…

6/ A different approach: This crime has reawakened security concerns in NATO nations more than anything since 1989. US policy should be to support NATO as its member states step up. Greater burden sharing from EU spending matched by greater US posture, cooperation, integration

7/ Change US export control + ITAR laws/regs to allow much deeper co-development and co-production partnerships w/NATO allies. Get serious about interoperability + combined operational capacity. All that = likely to result in bigger operational effect than $

8/ You end up w/an alliance w/more burden sharing, more effective + efficient, still benefiting from the value of US leadership and of course US offering a decisive military backstop. Pouring $30-40B more a year into defense w/o those reforms would be unnecessary and inefficient

9/ This crisis = once in a lifetime chance to overcome some of the political + other barriers to reforms that have been stuck in blue-ribbon commission purgatory for 30 years. Much rather see a burst of reform aimed at tighter NATO integration than throwing money at the problem