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Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
@michaelh992
Mar 6, 2022 • 44 tweets • 16 min read • Read on X
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Thread on the #Russian invasion of #Ukraine - March 6
In its last update, the Ukrainian military reported several Russian movements east of Kyiv, including in an effort to advance towards the area between Borsipyl and Brovary (map is just to show these two positions). Image
Russian forces are also amassing in the Kozelets area, while also trying to advance towards the Kaniv Hydroeletric Power Plant (they are still quite far, from my understanding of their position).
>> ImageImage
This suggests that as the offensive in the west is stalling, they are trying to move closer and surround Kyiv from the east. This has been in the works for several days now, with limited actual progress so far.
On of the problems the Russians are facing is that they still do not control the Chernihiv area, and some of the area south of it.

Much of the coverage of the Kyiv battle is focused on the two large convoys in the west, but the battle is also happening to the east of the city
Last night Russian forces continued to bomb Kharkiv
GRAPHIC: Ukrainian forces are capturing Russian material and vehicles after a foiled Russian attack near Mykolaiv
Aftermath of Russian strikes against Ovruch in the Zhytomyr Oblast ImageImageImage
There were claims that Russia was mobilizing further reserves. This video of Russian vehicles being loaded in Khabarovsk, in eastern Russia, seems to confirm those claims - though it will take a long time for those vehicles to get to the front.
BTW mobilizing units that will take days (if not weeks) to actually reach the frontline, tells you something about whether Putin is ready for end his invasion of #Ukraine
Crowd dispersal/riot control equipment were found in a truck of the Rosgvardia near Kharkiv. Image
The head of the Chernihiv Regional Military Administration confirmed that three unguided Russian FAB-500 bombs were found unexploded in the city, after Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian su-34 jet, yesterday morning
t.me/chernigivskaOD… ImageImageImage
Damage in Irpin near Kyiv
Aftermath of an ambush by Ukrainian forces against a Russian convoy near Kharkiv ImageImageImage
#Breaking After yesterday's effort to evacuate civilians from Mariupol completely fell through, another attempt will be made today at 12:00 according to Ukrainian authorities. Evacuation will be carried out by car/bus.
The evacuation will take place from three different points in the city. A ceasefire has been agreed upon from 12:00 to 21:00.
Several "before/after" pictures of building destroyed by Russia in Kharkiv in recent days ImageImageImageImage
Correspondent for Radio Svoboda reports that Russian troops opened fire (likely mortar) on civilians as they tried to leave Irpin, near Kyiv. He says there are at least three killed, including two children likely from the same family.
radiosvoboda.org/a/news-irpin-o…
There are claims on Ukrainian media that the Chief of Staff of the Belarusian army has resigned (accompanied with a letter) as he does not want to fight in #Ukraine. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense denied it these claims (I personally would also doubt this is true)
Buses are starting to arrive in Mariupol to evacuate civilians as part of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine
GRAPHIC: A store in Kharkiv got hit by a Russian shell. Several people standing in queue in front of the store are wounded Image
Residents of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson are protesting the Russian occupation following a call for demonstration.
In a briefing on the current situation in #Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovich (Zelensky presidential advisor) confirms that Russian forces north of Mykolaiv are trying to move on the South Ukraine nuclear power plant - as previous reports suggested.
Part of a commercial area destroyed by shelling in Stoyanka, west of Kyiv
Civilians evacuating from Irpin near Kyiv ImageImageImage
Awful footage from Irpin - earlier reports indicated that at least three civilians were killed there. From the geolocation of the church (mentioned by Kyle in his thread), this is not on the main frontline. Shelling may have intentionally hit evac route.
#Ukraine's Donetsk Police reports that Russian forces are using cluster munitions. Three people were injured in Pokrovsk, and two members of the bomb disposal team were wounded trying to dispose of the explosives.
dn.npu.gov.ua/news/vibuxovi-… ImageImage
Cruise missile flying in the Vinnytsia - likely the same one that struck the airport nearby moments ago
Earlier today, the Ukrainian railway company reported that a train station came under fire in Korosten.

No injuries - but along with other similar incidents on evac routes/trains, this points to a deliberate effort to prevent civilian evacuation.
facebook.com/Ukrzaliznytsia…
Evacuation in Mariupol liable to fail for the second day in a row
The Ukrainian military released footage of the evacuation of civilians from Irpin yesterday (evac still ongoing today)
Aftermath of clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces near Sumy ImageImageImageImage
The Vinnitsya airport is completely destroyed following a Russian cruise missile strike earlier today ImageImageImage
Protest denouncing the Russian occupation, in Heniches'k, Kherson province.
Update on the Russian attack in Irpin:
Ukrainian media reports that shots were fired at protesters in Nova Kakhovka during today's demo
🚩 Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson claims the missiles fired at the Vinnytsia airport, were fired from the self-proclaimed Transnistria Republic in Moldova
Orthodox church shelled by Russian forces in Bobryk, east of Kyiv Image
This matches the flight path observed by several OSINT accounts. Would be the first confirmed large-scale attack from the Russia-backed separatist republic in Moldova.
The government of Moldova, however, denied that the missiles were fired from Moldova. Other sources claim it came from the Black Sea.
t.me/prima_sursa_md…
Might explain the conflicting reports:
The Russian Ministry of Defense warned that countries letting Ukrainian planes use of their airfields can be regarded as parties to the conflict.
Russian media outlets, quoting the Ministry of Defense are also releasing claims that Ukraine has erased evidence of a "military-biological" program funded by the US Department of Defense.

(no concrete evidence shown)

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More from @michaelh992

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 30
As of now, Gantz and the opposition do not have the votes necessary to pass such a bill, unless there are defections within Netanyahu's own coalition. The question is whether this is an effort to encourage such defections or Gantz does have an indication that there are already defectors? It might also be a gamble, with no real plan.
As a reminder, Gantz has given Netanyahu a deadline (until June 8) to respond to six key demands. Netanyahu rejected the ultimatum moments after it was issued, and there were voices inside Gantz's own party who called to simply leave the government even ahead of the deadline
Advancing a bill to dissolve the Knesset would suggest Gantz is on his way out of the government.
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
Another Go-pro footage of #Hamas militants going house to house in Sufa, near #Gaza, during the October 7 attacks, shooting at civilians inside houses (a civilian can be seen in the living room, and falls after being shot).
In this video, a #Hamas militant fires at an ambulance stationed within the border community to make sure it cannot be used.
In this one, #Hamas militants enter a house, they hear a phone ring and try to find people inside the house.

They shoot upstairs, then one of the militants shouts "mother" trying to mimic a child, possibly to attract civilians hiding in the house.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
#Israel, #Gaza: Over the past day/two there have been conflicting reports about a possible #Egyptian warning that "something big" was going to happen.

Here is my understanding (based on various accounts and info in Israeli and Egyptian media) of what may have happened - with the Caveat, that we don't have the full picture yet:

1. The report that the Egyptian Intelligence Minister spoke to Netanyahu about this upcoming threat is wrong about at least one thing: Anybody involved in diplomatic protocole knows that cooperation is done on the same level. If Egypt's intel minister spoke to someone, it's unlikely to be Netanyahu but a minister.

2. There was from what I understand, a warning from #Egypt. The warning was passed to the Israeli security apparatus (unclear to me exactly who).

3. This warning was based, in part, on increased military exercises, training and mobilization from Hamas. The message Egypt received is that Israel knew about all of this.

4. Israel, however, had a different interpretation, and felt Hamas was just flexing its muscle. It took some measures, on Friday evening and was about to discuss more in the next day. That's when the attack happened. Israel did not get that this was going to happen now.

5. This interpretation was based on the overall assessment that Hamas was still deterred, and focused on fueling tensions in the West Bank rather than Gaza. This assessment, served to negates signs on the ground that Egypt picked up, but that Israel had also picked up - but misinterpreted.

In the end, Egypt's interpretation, proved right, in the worse way.
BTW, this is a textbook case of intel failure, one routed in the processing of info and in the analysis. @AnshelPfeffer noted the similarities with the Kippur War and the "concept" (I recommend his thread on this).

I can also say, as an analyst working in the field of intelligence (in a much more limited way to be clear), and having studied the intelligence cycle, this is an even more broadly reported intel failure. Collection drives analysis, and collection should be allowed to overturn analysis and assessments, not the opposite.

Major intel failures can result from prolonged (or short) periods in which analysis inadvertently overrules collection. The main assessment is validated and reinforced by "collected facts" because contradictory evidence is ignored by design.

Same with the second part of the cycle, which is tied to the dissemination of information to the political echellon. If it works in reverse, it trickles down, and you open yourself up for major failures in intel.
Image
That's true and a good point. Collection in itself isn't "facts", and analysis vets and reshapes collected intel, which makes the mistake I mentioned even more likely to happen.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
(GRAPHIC) Remains of what appears to be a young child, burned in his home in Kfar Aza, posted by South First Reponders. Image
I did very much hesitate to post this. But given the astonishing debates and discussions about whether children were killed and how, I did decide to post this.

On the source: South First Responders is a group of emergency personnel who are identifying corpses - something I have verified.
Additional pictures of a young woman shot in her bedroom Image
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
I personally don't buy that Lukashenko played this kind of role as a mediator.
For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.
There could be several reasons, including because a decision to resettle Wagner to Belarus without really consulting Lukashenko would show him for the puppet he is.

Or because Luka will now have to live with the fact the the mutineers of yesterday are on his own territory
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8, 2023
🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors Image
When the reactors are not in production, or in case of an accident, cooling is ensured through smaller cooling "fountains" situated closer to the cores. Image
Read 8 tweets

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