Dan Lamothe Profile picture
Mar 6 18 tweets 2 min read
A senior U.S. defense official just released an updated assessment of the war in Ukraine as of early Sunday evening in Washington. Basic updates:
"We’ve observed limited changes on the ground over the past day. Russian forces continued efforts to advance and isolate Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv across the north and east are being met with strong Ukrainian resistance."
"There does not appear to be any significant movement along the Russian axes. Leading elements remain outside these city centers. We cannot give specific distances today.

"The convoy continues to be stalled."
"We assess that the Russians have now committed inside Ukraine somewhere near 95% of the combat power they had amassed along the border."
"We’ve observed fighting in the south near Kherson and Mykolaiv. We cannot independently verify reporting of Russian forces firing on protesters in Kherson."
"We have not observed an amphibious invasion in or near Odessa, nor do we assess that one is imminent.

"We’ve observed continued ongoing fighting and efforts to encircle Mariupol. There continue to be reports of wide-spread utility outages (water and electricity)."
"We cannot independently verify claims of ceasefire violations," senior U.S. defense official adds.
Senior U.S. defense official:

"In the airspace, we continue to observe that the airspace over Ukraine is contested. Ukrainian air and missile defenses remain effective and in use. The Ukrainian military continues to fly aircraft and to employ air defense assets."
"We are aware of the Ukrainian military’s release of videos and numbers of Russian aircraft shot down," senior U.S. defense official says. "We cannot independently verify those incidents, but neither are we in a position to refute them."
"Both sides have taken losses to both aircraft and missile defense inventories," senior U.S. defense official says. "We are not going to speak to numbers. We assess that both sides still possess a majority of their air defense systems and capabilities."
"As of today, we assess that approximately 600 Russian missile launches have occurred since the invasion began," senior U.S. defense official says.
"We believe the Ukrainian people in most parts of the country still have means of communication, access to internet and the media," senior U.S. defense official says.
Pentagon says it cannot corroborate any reports of cluster munitions or thermobaric weapons in U.S., can't say whether the Russians are calling up reserves, and can't say whether any Russian naval infantry have been loaded on any "LSTs," a kind of landing craft.
Pentagon also will not corroborate Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces have shot down one Russian Su-25 fighter jet, two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers, two Russian Su-30 SM planes, and four Russian helicopters today.
Finally, Pentagon says it cannot corroborate reports that Russian dropped 1,000-pound bombs near Chernihiv.
This update in text form came instead of background briefings. It is not online, but you've now seen what I'm seeing.

Would anticipate backgrounders return tomorrow (Monday).
Observation: Journalists will continue to ask the Pentagon for additional information. But they don't have nearly the same visibility of this war that they do of the ones they are involved in directly.
As always, getting a clear picture of what is happening on the ground requires layering numerous sources. Even then, there will be gaps in knowledge.

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More from @DanLamothe

Mar 8
Today's Ukraine thread begins w/ a story: A U.S. general assessed today that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers have died since the invasion of Ukraine began.

That came up a bit later during background briefing w/ a senior U.S. defense official.

Takeaways:

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
The number is based on imperfect information, prompting Lt. Gen. Berrier, the director at DIA, to say he has "low confidence" in the number. Still, it's the best estimate the U.S. appears to have.

The senior U.S. defense official said Berrier did "the best he could" to answer.
In today's Pentagon briefing, many details sound reasonably stagnant. Bombardments continue. The convoy north of Kyiv is still stalled beginning at Hostomel airport. And the Russians continue to have a bit more success in southern Ukraine.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 7
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official for Monday about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Some takeaways:
The Pentagon has seen evidence that Russia is trying to recruit Syrians to fight on their behalf in Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says. That matches a @WSJ scoop from last night.
The Pentagon now assesses that nearly 100 percent of the Russian combat power prestaged at the Ukrainian border are now committed to the fight, a senior U.S. defense official says.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 4
A Friday background briefing with senior U.S. defense officials about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Some takeaways worth noting:
Ninety-two percent of Russia’s combat power assembled at the Ukrainian border pre-invasion is now in Ukraine. That’s up from about 90 percent in a Pentagon assessment yesterday.
Strikingly, Ukraine has a “significant majority” of its aircraft still available against Russia after nine days of invasion, senior U.S. defense official says. For days, U.S. has said the airspace was contested.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 3
A Thursday background briefing at the Pentagon about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Notable updates:
Pentagon acknowledges "heavy bombardment" by Russia of numerous cities. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol, etc.

Mariupol is still in Ukrainian government control.

Russians are now "just outside" Kharkiv.
There is a “clear willingness” to hit Ukrainian civilian targets, including government infrastructure in Kyiv and Kharkiv, senior defense official says.

That amid obvious verified of attacks circulating on social media.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 1
At the Pentagon, a Tuesday morning background briefing about the war in Ukraine with a senior U.S. defense official has concluded. Important updates:
The 40 mile-long column of Russian tanks and combat vehicles that has been spotted in satellite imagery has “stalled” north of Kyiv, the senior U.S. defense official said. Several possible reasons for it, and it could be more than one of them.
There are indications that Russian forces are "regrouping" after their haphazard operation so far hasn't yielded the results they expected. They continue to deal with fuel shortages, and the senior U.S. defense official said food shortages have come up, too.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 28
Monday morning Pentagon background briefing on the war in Ukraine now concluded. Some noteworthy details on what is Day 5 since Russia's invasion to follow:
On Sunday, a senior U.S. defense official said that Russia appeared to adapting siege tactics on the northern city of Chernihiv. Today that official adds it appears similar tactics are in use in the northeastern city of Kharkiv, something that matches visuals widely available.
The senior U.S. official also says it appear that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Kyiv, raising concerns siege tactics could be used there, too.
Read 14 tweets

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