Dan Lamothe Profile picture
Mar 7 11 tweets 2 min read
A background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official for Monday about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Some takeaways:
The Pentagon has seen evidence that Russia is trying to recruit Syrians to fight on their behalf in Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says. That matches a @WSJ scoop from last night.
The Pentagon now assesses that nearly 100 percent of the Russian combat power prestaged at the Ukrainian border are now committed to the fight, a senior U.S. defense official says.
Russia has now launched more than 625 missiles at Ukraine since the invasion began, a senior U.S. defense official says Monday.
Airspace is still contested, as it has been, a Pentagon official says.

“We do continue to assess that President Zelensky has the vast majority of his fixed-wing aircraft available to him,” senior U.S. defense official says.
Pentagon says it will deploy an additional 500 U.S. troops from the U.S. to Europe in light of the crisis in Ukraine, senior defense official says. No combat troops -- refueling, air ops center, etc.
The Pentagon does not seen any indications of additional Russian forces moving toward Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says.
U.S. officials also do not see Belarusian forces moving to join the fight, senior U.S. defense official says.
Bombardments continue in multiple locations in Ukraine, something the Pentagon believes could be coming in part because of their failures to maneuver on the ground.
"It appears as though the Russians are increasing their use of long-range fires to supplement or make up for the lack of ground movement that they have had, and the lack of air superiority that they enjoy," senior U.S. defense official says.
Pentagon "cannot assess with specificity" whether Russia is deliberately targeting civilians, senior U.S. defense official says.

That said, civilian areas are definitely being hit more frequently, highlighting the "reckless nature" of current Russians operations, official says.

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More from @DanLamothe

Mar 8
Today's Ukraine thread begins w/ a story: A U.S. general assessed today that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers have died since the invasion of Ukraine began.

That came up a bit later during background briefing w/ a senior U.S. defense official.

Takeaways:

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
The number is based on imperfect information, prompting Lt. Gen. Berrier, the director at DIA, to say he has "low confidence" in the number. Still, it's the best estimate the U.S. appears to have.

The senior U.S. defense official said Berrier did "the best he could" to answer.
In today's Pentagon briefing, many details sound reasonably stagnant. Bombardments continue. The convoy north of Kyiv is still stalled beginning at Hostomel airport. And the Russians continue to have a bit more success in southern Ukraine.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 6
A senior U.S. defense official just released an updated assessment of the war in Ukraine as of early Sunday evening in Washington. Basic updates:
"We’ve observed limited changes on the ground over the past day. Russian forces continued efforts to advance and isolate Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv across the north and east are being met with strong Ukrainian resistance."
"There does not appear to be any significant movement along the Russian axes. Leading elements remain outside these city centers. We cannot give specific distances today.

"The convoy continues to be stalled."
Read 18 tweets
Mar 4
A Friday background briefing with senior U.S. defense officials about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Some takeaways worth noting:
Ninety-two percent of Russia’s combat power assembled at the Ukrainian border pre-invasion is now in Ukraine. That’s up from about 90 percent in a Pentagon assessment yesterday.
Strikingly, Ukraine has a “significant majority” of its aircraft still available against Russia after nine days of invasion, senior U.S. defense official says. For days, U.S. has said the airspace was contested.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 3
A Thursday background briefing at the Pentagon about the war in Ukraine has concluded.

Notable updates:
Pentagon acknowledges "heavy bombardment" by Russia of numerous cities. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol, etc.

Mariupol is still in Ukrainian government control.

Russians are now "just outside" Kharkiv.
There is a “clear willingness” to hit Ukrainian civilian targets, including government infrastructure in Kyiv and Kharkiv, senior defense official says.

That amid obvious verified of attacks circulating on social media.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 1
At the Pentagon, a Tuesday morning background briefing about the war in Ukraine with a senior U.S. defense official has concluded. Important updates:
The 40 mile-long column of Russian tanks and combat vehicles that has been spotted in satellite imagery has “stalled” north of Kyiv, the senior U.S. defense official said. Several possible reasons for it, and it could be more than one of them.
There are indications that Russian forces are "regrouping" after their haphazard operation so far hasn't yielded the results they expected. They continue to deal with fuel shortages, and the senior U.S. defense official said food shortages have come up, too.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 28
Monday morning Pentagon background briefing on the war in Ukraine now concluded. Some noteworthy details on what is Day 5 since Russia's invasion to follow:
On Sunday, a senior U.S. defense official said that Russia appeared to adapting siege tactics on the northern city of Chernihiv. Today that official adds it appears similar tactics are in use in the northeastern city of Kharkiv, something that matches visuals widely available.
The senior U.S. official also says it appear that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Kyiv, raising concerns siege tactics could be used there, too.
Read 14 tweets

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