Thread by @DanLamothe

Today's Ukraine thread begins w/ a story: A U.S. general assessed today that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers have died since the invasion of Ukraine began.

That came up a bit later during background briefing w/ a senior U.S. defense official.

Takeaways:

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

The number is based on imperfect information, prompting Lt. Gen. Berrier, the director at DIA, to say he has "low confidence" in the number. Still, it's the best estimate the U.S. appears to have.

The senior U.S. defense official said Berrier did "the best he could" to answer.

In today's Pentagon briefing, many details sound reasonably stagnant. Bombardments continue. The convoy north of Kyiv is still stalled beginning at Hostomel airport. And the Russians continue to have a bit more success in southern Ukraine.

As of today, "nearly 670" missiles have been launched at Ukraine by Russia since the invasion began Feb. 26, the senior U.S. defense official said. That number has risen by a few dozen per day for a while now.

Notably: The senior defense official noted the advance of Russian forces northeast of Kyiv. The've been pushing west from the area around Sumy, as Russia seeks to encircle the capital. As of today, they are about 37 miles east of Kyiv, the official said.

No appreciable change in combat power Russia has put in the fight. They are still at "nearly 100 percent" of the combat forces they had arrayed at the border before the invasion began, senior U.S. defense official says. No sign they are bringing in reinforcements, he adds.

Correction to tweet above: The invasion began Feb. 24, not Feb. 26. Continuing....

Russian combat power is still "largely intact," senior defense official says. Ukraine's too.

Rough breakdown of Russia's 670-missile barrage so far:

- Almost half fired from Russia
- About 70 from Belarus
- Handful from Black Sea
- The rest from inside Ukraine

Senior defense official says airspace is still contested. But he notes that Russia can reach just about anywhere over Ukraine with surface-to-air missiles. That, of course, is important in any conversation about a no-fly zone being established.

Russia shelled a major gas pipeline in eastern Ukraine yesterday, the senior defense official said. As a result, many in eastern Ukraine are now without gas.

Russians are "stuck" outside Chernihiv without making progress there, senior U.S. defense official says.

In contrast, Mariupol is now isolated, the Pentagon assesses.

"Iterative discussions" are ongoing with allies and partners are underway to supply Ukraine what it needs, senior defense official says. But no changes on the discussion about sending jets to Ukraine.

On humanitarian corridors, the senior defense official says that it is "disingenuous" to say anything heading toward Belarus or Russia counts. Hope is for more that are honored by Russia in the future.

In the hearing with Lt. Gen. Berrier, he forecast greater challenges for Kyiv this month, as Russia attempts to cut food and water supplies.

The situation, he said, "will become somewhat desperate in 10 days to two weeks."

The senior U.S. defense official said that when it comes to humanitarian corridors, "the Russians have not proven to be reliable."

"Whether the two sides are able to continue to work out these kinds of agreements, we can't know for sure," the official said.