Myanmar's public defence forces lack capability to take down or even constrain these aircraft
Germany and Netherlands alone have sent at least 700 MANPADS to Ukraine in past week
If Myanmar's elected government had just 10 MANPADs, it would be a game changer
Feb last year, Myanmar's UN rep called for "strongest possible action from the international community to immediately end the military coup, to stop oppressing the innocent people, to return the state power to the people and to restore the democracy.” reuters.com/article/us-mya…
Since then, international support has been minimal but elected leaders have allied with the oldest & most democratic ethnic resistance organisations and other key blocs.
The illegal junta has lost control, cannot collect tax, open schools or enforce law
Across Chin, Sagaing, Karenni, Kachin and Karen states/regions, the illegal Myanmar military is on the defensive.
It has become more dependent than ever on its air force to devastate entire communities that support the resistance, displacing tens of thousands every week
Nobody wants to see the proliferation of weapons that can shoot down aircraft.
But when a country of 55 milllion people is under occupation from the skies and when one pilot can do so much harm to thousands of children, women and men, surely options have to be explored.
Myanmar's elected government and EROs find it easier to recruit thousands of women and men willing to die
.. and to find millions of impoverished people willing to give 50% + of their salaries
.. than they do to obtain modern weapons, let alone one SAM
What does that tell you?
We talk about economic sanctions as if they are totally non-violent and we talk about all forms 'lethal assistance' as if they are inherently violent.
But this completely ignores the actual outcomes of different responses and could traps us in downward cycles of crisis
We have to start talking seriously and consistenly about how to help ppl protect basic rights
We have to start talking seriously and consistently about what constitutes legitimate political leadership.
We have to start talking about what constitutes self-defence of a country
No international actor should rush to flood Myanmar (or anywhere else) with weapons
But the gap between what is considered completely normal in some contexts and completely unspeakable in others is mind-blowing.
SU-30s will bomb people tomorrow.Mi-35s will shoot people next week
There is more than enough evidence that the majority of Myanmar people support their elected leaders and the country's broadest ever political alliance has formed
When can we get serious about supporting them?
Recent weeks have been a crash-course of learning for democratic countries trying to help peoples and countries defend themselves from invasion and authoritarianism
Hopefully this will reshape the way that they approach efforts to defend rights and democracy all over the world
UN Special Envoy calls for non-military-led dialogue with all parties to agree a power sharing agreement as first step towards long-term military transformation.
Reasonable common sense suggestions but lack attention to practical realities...
This is exactly what the UN has been calling for since the 1990s (at least) and what has been consistently blocked & avoided by the military.
This is not an accident. The military could not be more explicit. It knows what is best for Myanmar and its power cannot be questioned.
The closest Myanmar has come to power sharing is the '08 constitution.
The SLORC/SPDC held National Convention but dominated proceedings like a petulant monarchy, offended everyone, took no one elses suggestions and - of course - did not let the UN anywhere near the process.
KNDF: "We will take back step by step, slow and slowly," he said. "We will continue, day by day. We are getting stronger. We are winning day by day."
@YeMyoHein5 : "In the past, their strategy and objective was how to control the country. Now they are focused on how survive."
@khinsandarwin: "I have never seen this kind if unity in our history... We believe that we will win this time. We never think we will lose ... Whether we die or whether you die, this is our slogan,"
This is a relatively small unit of troops. Report say max. 120 trucks. If 25 men per truck, that is 3,000 troops.
I'd expect only a handful of support personnel (comms, medics, intelligence) for every 100 and they will be greatly isolated, hens the long, high-profile journey
MAJOR THREAT that this relatively weak and poorly supported infantry force will lean into Tatmadaw strategem #1:
Abuse, terrorise, destabilise and disperse the local population, destroying food stores, clearing people from the region, and instilling terror in those who remain.
The best book I have read on any aspect of local governance in #Myanmar.
Deep ethnography by local and int researchers on how actually justice works, mostly outside of the official courts where local leaders, EAOs and others fil void.
Also covers customary and ethnic justice practices, in Karen Mon, Naga and Pa-O communities, who - in different ways - handle justice affairs locally without the official state system.
Much needed to go beyond the imaginary and simplistic EAO-controlled / gov-controlled binary.
Critical story on a US gun enthusiast using faux CIA credentials to train #Myanmar activists in highly problematic methods, including home-made indiscriminate weapons.
Worth noting that ppl in Dooplaya probably suffered more than any other Karen district after DKBA formed in 1995 and the constant fighting, forced labour, land confiscation and other abuses that followed.
Ceasefires brought dramatic improvements to security and well-being and relative peace and stability between the Karen groups allowed huge advancements in rebuilding Kawthoolei governance systems, laws etc. alongside improved economy etc.