Kim Jolliffe Profile picture
Mar 7 13 tweets 4 min read
Many of these flying death machines have been terrorising civilians in #Myanmar for more than a decade.

The export version of Mi-24 (Mi-35) regularly fires on villages and fleeing people, while Su-30 variants bomb entire communities almost every day.

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
Myanmar's public defence forces lack capability to take down or even constrain these aircraft

Germany and Netherlands alone have sent at least 700 MANPADS to Ukraine in past week

If Myanmar's elected government had just 10 MANPADs, it would be a game changer
Feb last year, Myanmar's UN rep called for "strongest possible action from the international community to immediately end the military coup, to stop oppressing the innocent people, to return the state power to the people and to restore the democracy.” reuters.com/article/us-mya…
Since then, international support has been minimal but elected leaders have allied with the oldest & most democratic ethnic resistance organisations and other key blocs.

The illegal junta has lost control, cannot collect tax, open schools or enforce law

rfa.org/english/news/m…
Across Chin, Sagaing, Karenni, Kachin and Karen states/regions, the illegal Myanmar military is on the defensive.

It has become more dependent than ever on its air force to devastate entire communities that support the resistance, displacing tens of thousands every week
Nobody wants to see the proliferation of weapons that can shoot down aircraft.

But when a country of 55 milllion people is under occupation from the skies and when one pilot can do so much harm to thousands of children, women and men, surely options have to be explored.
Myanmar's elected government and EROs find it easier to recruit thousands of women and men willing to die

.. and to find millions of impoverished people willing to give 50% + of their salaries

.. than they do to obtain modern weapons, let alone one SAM

What does that tell you?
We talk about economic sanctions as if they are totally non-violent and we talk about all forms 'lethal assistance' as if they are inherently violent.

But this completely ignores the actual outcomes of different responses and could traps us in downward cycles of crisis
We have to start talking seriously and consistenly about how to help ppl protect basic rights

We have to start talking seriously and consistently about what constitutes legitimate political leadership.

We have to start talking about what constitutes self-defence of a country
No international actor should rush to flood Myanmar (or anywhere else) with weapons

But the gap between what is considered completely normal in some contexts and completely unspeakable in others is mind-blowing.
SU-30s will bomb people tomorrow.Mi-35s will shoot people next week

There is more than enough evidence that the majority of Myanmar people support their elected leaders and the country's broadest ever political alliance has formed

When can we get serious about supporting them?
Recent weeks have been a crash-course of learning for democratic countries trying to help peoples and countries defend themselves from invasion and authoritarianism

Hopefully this will reshape the way that they approach efforts to defend rights and democracy all over the world

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More from @Kim_Jolliffe

Feb 1
THREAD

UN Special Envoy calls for non-military-led dialogue with all parties to agree a power sharing agreement as first step towards long-term military transformation.

Reasonable common sense suggestions but lack attention to practical realities...

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
This is exactly what the UN has been calling for since the 1990s (at least) and what has been consistently blocked & avoided by the military.

This is not an accident. The military could not be more explicit. It knows what is best for Myanmar and its power cannot be questioned.
The closest Myanmar has come to power sharing is the '08 constitution.

The SLORC/SPDC held National Convention but dominated proceedings like a petulant monarchy, offended everyone, took no one elses suggestions and - of course - did not let the UN anywhere near the process.
Read 24 tweets
Feb 1
"As the junta attempts to forcibly bring the country under its control, it has inadvertently united many of Myanmar's diverse groups against it."

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Feb1Coup

edition.cnn.com/2022/01/31/asi…
KNDF: "We will take back step by step, slow and slowly," he said. "We will continue, day by day. We are getting stronger. We are winning day by day."

@YeMyoHein5 : "In the past, their strategy and objective was how to control the country. Now they are focused on how survive."
@khinsandarwin: "I have never seen this kind if unity in our history... We believe that we will win this time. We never think we will lose ... Whether we die or whether you die, this is our slogan,"
Read 4 tweets
Oct 13, 2021
THREAD on #Myanmar army sending 2 large convoys (80+ trucks each with armoured vehicle escort) to Chin State.

- HUGE human rights / humnitarian concern

- Potential int' security concern for #India

- Unlikely to be strategic victory for MM military

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
This is a relatively small unit of troops. Report say max. 120 trucks. If 25 men per truck, that is 3,000 troops.

I'd expect only a handful of support personnel (comms, medics, intelligence) for every 100 and they will be greatly isolated, hens the long, high-profile journey
MAJOR THREAT that this relatively weak and poorly supported infantry force will lean into Tatmadaw strategem #1:

Abuse, terrorise, destabilise and disperse the local population, destroying food stores, clearing people from the region, and instilling terror in those who remain.
Read 18 tweets
Oct 11, 2021
The best book I have read on any aspect of local governance in #Myanmar.

Deep ethnography by local and int researchers on how actually justice works, mostly outside of the official courts where local leaders, EAOs and others fil void.
It is a must read for understanding how governance is patchworked & why village/ward level is so important.

Written pre-coup but is deeply relevant post-coup as the governance and security environment becomes more fragmented and "mixed" in many areas.

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Also covers customary and ethnic justice practices, in Karen Mon, Naga and Pa-O communities, who - in different ways - handle justice affairs locally without the official state system.

Much needed to go beyond the imaginary and simplistic EAO-controlled / gov-controlled binary.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 9, 2021
Critical story on a US gun enthusiast using faux CIA credentials to train #Myanmar activists in highly problematic methods, including home-made indiscriminate weapons.

Some of my thoughts below 👇

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar #Sep9Coup

newnaratif.com/dr-sasa-visits…
Activists and political leaders underwent an extremely difficult decision-making process in March and April, deciding whether to take up arms.

They received no protection from anyone, and the zero sum nature of the SAC's agenda meant it was 'fight, be arrested/killed, or flee'
Myanmar has suffered unimaginable violence for decades, not because of parochial conflicts, competing economic agendas or sectrarian divides.

But because of a particularly peverse and violent institution that controls nearly everything and never compromises with anyone.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 8, 2021
KNU Chairperson of Dooplaya District (southern Karen State) has requested NUG withdraw its declaration of war.

He is "terrified" of exepcted impacts on civilians and calls for political talks.

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Sep8Coup

kicnews.org/2021/09/nug-%E…
Worth noting that ppl in Dooplaya probably suffered more than any other Karen district after DKBA formed in 1995 and the constant fighting, forced labour, land confiscation and other abuses that followed.
Ceasefires brought dramatic improvements to security and well-being and relative peace and stability between the Karen groups allowed huge advancements in rebuilding Kawthoolei governance systems, laws etc. alongside improved economy etc.
Read 4 tweets

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