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Ulrich Speck Profile picture
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Mar 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Wondering what carrots Scholz and Macron are going to offer to Xi -- and whether they have some sticks.
To me it seems very, very, very far-fetched to believe that China could try to pressure Russia to stop the war.
For Beijing, Russia's assault on international norms may open new opportunities.
If a war of aggression / conquest -- the prevention of which is what the post-WWII system is about -- is somehow in the range of the possible, Beijing may like it.
What Scholz and Macron might be able achieve is to keep China's rhetorical support for Russia's war minimal; but that would probably require some tough talk about access to the EU market.

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More from @ulrichspeck

Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Mar 9
What's at stake in Ukraine? A preliminary list
Ukraine's existence as a sovereign and independent state -- the outcome of 1991, when the Soviet Union fell apart.
Russia's further identity and character: a nation state that accepts to be limited by international borders (the outcome of 1991) -- or an empire that is using military power in order to gain territory and control about others?
Read 12 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Mar 9
Zelensky: "in the future Ukraine must have a collective security agreement with all its neighbors and with the participation of the world’s leading countries - the United States, France, Germany and Turkey"
Which obviously must be more than the Budapest Memorandum 1994 which was just a piece of paper. It can only work if these countries are actively involved in guaranteeing Ukraine's borders. At a minimum they must help Ukraine quickly build a strong military force.
Something they failed to do after 2015 because they were afraid of a Russian reaction -- yet this reaction was exactly what happened in 2022. It was Ukraine's military weakness that has encouraged Putin to wage war.
Read 7 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Mar 8
As the war continues, Russia will come up with offers for peace in order to achieve his goal, control of Ukraine, with lower cost.
Yet every offer that leaves Ukraine without protection against Russia is just a demand for surrender.
Ukraine can be protected with substantial own forces (armed with the help of the west), through Nato membership or through Western troops guaranteeing Ukraine's borders (like Western Germany during the Cold war).
Read 7 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Mar 8
Mit der pauschalen Ablehnung des Energieembargos stellt sich Deutschland wieder einmal ins Abseits. Die Ukraine und unsere ostmitteleuropäischen Partner machen Druck, Washington, London und Paris sind offenbar ebenfalls dafür.
Ganz rapide verliert Berlin wieder die Glaubwürdigkeit, die es durch die Scholz-Rede und die Wende bei Waffenlieferungen, SWIFT-Sanktionen und NS2 gewonnen hat.
Schlimmer noch: es schöpft noch immer nicht alle Mittel "short of war" aus, um Russlands Angriffs- und Eroberungskrieg entgegenzutreten -- denn darum geht es.
Read 9 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Mar 7
Many people are thinking about potential compromises leading to peace in Ukraine. Yet to understand what's at stake for Putin one must keep in mind that this war didn't start in 2022, it started in 2014. For Putin, destroying Ukraine's independence has become an obsession.
If it were just about Ukraine's status, a compromise would be at least thinkable. If Russia would feel threatened by Ukraine, there could be ways to deal with it.
Many people have picked up the arguments coming from the Kremlin, or think of Putin's war in terms of "realist" political logic. Yet this is misleading.
Read 9 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Mar 7
Kanzler Scholz nimmt "Energielieferungen" aus den Sanktionen heraus. Muss es aber um alles oder nichts gehen -- warum nicht Lieferungen wenigstens reduzieren, womöglich schrittweise, eskalierend? Wir leben doch im Zeitalter intelligenter Sanktionen -- bundeskanzler.de/bk-de/aktuelle…
Vor allen: Russland täglich horrende Summen zu überweisen, die die Kriegsmaschinerie am Laufen halten, kann nicht im deutschen Interesse sein.
Zum einen und vor allem wegen der Ukraine selbst.
Read 8 tweets

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